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USD Extends Gains as Investors Shrug Off Fed Optimism - Action Forex
In the FX, the US dollar rebounded on a third day as FX traders somehow shrugged off the post-FOMC optimism that was certainly overdone. The EURUSD retreated to 1.0740. The daily graph says quite a lot on the euro sentiment, as the pair tested a major Fibonacci resistance, which also coincides with the ytd descending channel top, and bounced lower. That makes sense in the context of diverging policy outlook between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB).
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 193.86) will bring stronger rebound back toward 197.40 resistance. On the downside, below 191.34 will resume the correction from 200.53. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 191.51) will target 61.8% retracement of 178.32 to 200.53 at 186.80.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.3782 resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed with three waves down to 1.3608. Intraday bias will be back to the upside to resume larger rally from 1.3176 through 1.3845. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3626) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and target 1.3477 support next.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9005 is extending. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9099) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9000) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will suggest that the pull back has completed, and bring stronger rebound to retest 0.9223 high.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.0810. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0731) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias to the downside for 1.0648 support instead.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
USD/JPY's break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.81) argues that pull back from 160.20 has completed at 151.86 already. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 157.98 resistance. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 150.87 resistance turned support to bring rebound.
Dollar Recovery Continues, But Bulls Struggle to Secure Full Control - Action Forex
Dollar's rebound gained some momentum in Asian session today on resurgence of risk aversion. Selloff in Japan was most notable where key industry leaders like Fast Retailing, Nintendo, and Toyota saw substantial declines. The sentiment was further dampened after remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who reiterated that Yen's extended weakness might necessitate monetary policy responses.
Riksbank Rate Decision Today a Close Call, We Expect Hold - Action Forex
Today, the main event in the Nordics is the Riksbank monetary policy decision, due at 09.30 CET. Money market pricing implies c. 80% probability of a cut but we think it is more or less a 50/50 call, and we expect the Riksbank to leave rates unchanged and signal a cut for June. Although domestic inflation has surprised to the downside recently, the risks highlighted at the March meeting (global central banks, geopolitics and the SEK) have all developed worse than expected and the Riksbank has far less to lose by opting for a cautionary stance. Between now and June we will have two more domestic inflation prints and updates from both the Fed and ECB.
Fed Kashkari Comments Didn’t Bring Life into Mostly Sideways Dealings - Action Forex
Minneapolis Fed Kashkari (non-voter this year) gave us some flavor on how a slightly more hawkish shift at last week’s policy meeting could have looked like. His guidance sounded familiar: “the most likely scenario is we sit here for an extended period of time”. In its official statement, the onus remained on a policy rate cut though the bar to implement one was raised given little progress on inflation.
Japanese Yen Weakens Despite Government Warnings - Action Forex
On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is currently forming a wave of decline towards 151.40. The local target of 151.86 has already been reached. The market is now correcting from the previous wave of decline and is expected to reach at least 156.00. After this correction, a new phase of decline towards 151.40 may begin. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD oscillator, whose signal line is below zero but directed upwards.
AUD/USD Daily Report - Action Forex
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and consolidations would continue below 0.6645. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6560) holds. Above 0.6645 will resume the rebound from 0.6361. On the downside, however, firm break of 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 0.6464 support instead.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/JPY's break of 55 4H EMA (now at 166.14) suggests that pull back from 171.58 has completed at 164.01 already. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 168.64 resistance. On the downside, break of 164.01 will resume the correction from 171.58 instead.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment, and some more consolidations could be seen above 1.6216. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6494 resistance holds. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Break of 1.6216 will turn bias back to the downside to 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6127 from 1.6742 at 1.5807.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9563 support.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/GBP's break of 0.8582 resistance suggests that fall from 0.8643 has completed at 0.8529. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8643 resistance. Firm break there will resume the choppy rebound from 0.8497 low. On the downside, below 0.8566 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
Elliott Wave Analysis on Dow Futures (YM) Favors Upside - Action Forex
Short Term Elliott Wave View in Dow Futures (YM) suggests the Index ended wave (4) correction at 37473. The Index has now turned higher in wave (5). However, it still needs to break above the previous wave (3) peak on 4.1.2024 at 40358 to rule out a double correction. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 38451 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 382808. Wave ((iii)) ended at 38682, dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 38428, and final wave ((v)) higher ended at 38801. This completed wave 1 in higher degree.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.2633. Further rally is in favor with 1.2471 support intact. On the upside, above 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break of 1.2471 will indicate that this rebound has completed, and revive near term bearishness. Retest of 1.2298 should then be seen in this case.
GBPUSD Pulls Back After Testing 50-day SMA - Action Forex
GBPUSD had been in a recovery mode following its bounce off the five-month bottom of 1.2298, with the price temporarily violating the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). However, the pair retraced back below the downward sloping trendline, in place since March, after failing to conquer the 50-day SMA.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. Further break of 1.3845 will resume larger rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3976 key resistance next. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3618) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and target 1.3477 support next.
UK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of England News - Action Forex
As shown by the technical analysis of the UK100 chart: → The price is moving within a long-term ascending channel (shown in blue). Meanwhile, its upper boundary is around the price level of 8500, which could serve as resistance if market sentiment remains equally optimistic;
RBA on Gold and Remains Vigilant to the Upside - Action Forex
As expected, the RBA Board left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% following its May meeting but strengthened its rhetoric around upside inflation risks. The statement highlighted that inflation is declining, but more slowly than expected. Services inflation is moderating only gradually, driven by a labour market that the RBA now assesses to be tighter than previously thought. It is noteworthy that the more forward-looking indicators in the RBA’s suite have eased more than lag indicators such as the unemployment rate.
Eurozone retail sales rises 0.8% mom in Mar, EU up 1.2% mom - Action Forex
Eurozone retail sales volume grew 0.8% mom in March, above expectation of 0.6% mom. Volume of retail trade increased for food, drinks, tobacco by 1.2%, for automotive fuel in specialised stores by 2.0%. Volume was stable for non-food products (except automotive fuel).
We Now Expect Two Rate Cuts from Fed This Year - Action Forex
We revise our Fed call to 2 rate cuts of 25bp this year in September and December. It will be a close call between July and September but with macro indicators showing no signs of sudden weakening, we lean towards September as our base case.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 166.084) will bring stronger rebound towards 168.64 resistance. On the downside, break of 164.01, and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 164.06) will extend the fall from 171.58 to 61.8% retracement of 153.15 to 171.58 at 160.19.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 193.86) will bring stronger rebound back toward 197.40 resistance. On the downside, below 191.34 will resume the correction from 200.53. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 191.51) will target 61.8% retracement of 178.32 to 200.53 at 186.80.
AUD/NZD: Aussie Medium-Term Outperformance Against Kiwi Intact Supported by RBA - Action Forex
RBA has chosen to maintain its policy cash rate at 4.35% in today’s monetary policy meeting for the fourth consecutive time, its highest level in almost 12 years. No major surprises and the tonality of the accompanying monetary policy statement is almost the same as the prior March’s meeting; the persistence of services inflation is a key uncertainty, some time is required for inflation to hit the target range of 2% to 3%, vigilant to upside risks, and not ruling anything in or out on future decisions are the key takeaways.
AUD/USD Daily Report - Action Forex
Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 0.6464 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Above 0.6645 will target 100% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6585 from 0.6464 at 0.6688 next.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.81) will bring stronger rebound towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 151.86 will resume the fall from 160.20. But strong support should be seen from 150.87 resistance turned support to bring rebound.
RBA Stays Pat, AUD Falls - Action Forex
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged today and warned that inflation is declining more slowly than expected, that persistence of services inflation is a key uncertainty, that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range and that they will remain vigilant to upside risks. Surprisingly, the kneejerk reaction to the decision has been a decline in the AUDUSD to the 66 cents level
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point. Focus remains on 0.8582 resistance. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8582 resistance holds. Below 0.8529 will target 0.8491/7 support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8582 will bring stronger rise back to 0.8643 resistance instead.
Dollar Basically Didn't Go Anywhere - Action Forex
The dollar basically didn’t go anywhere. The DXY index closed unchanged (105.05). EUR/USD gained marginally (close 1.0769). USD/JPY was the exception to the rule, rebounding to 153.9. The US-Japan interest rate differential clearly remains too big to prevent yen selling.
UK PMI construction hits 14-month high but hiring trend subdued - Action Forex
UK PMI Construction surged from 50.2 to 53.0 in April, marking its most robust reading since February 2023. According to S&P Global, this growth was primarily driven by increased activity in commercial projects and civil engineering. However, house building experienced a decline, albeit amid improving supply conditions.
Gold Attempts Recovery to Only Face Limitations Again - Action Forex
Gold had a positive start to the week, bouncing back above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), but the bullish attempt was not strong enough to drive the precious metal successfully above the constraining zone of 2,325. This is where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the February-April uptrend and a former restrictive line are placed.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9563 support.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations could be seen. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8996) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883.