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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for 0.8038 low. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound, and above 0.816 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, firm break of 0.8038 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757.
Sunset Market Commentary - Action Forex
Israel’s overnight airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities was met by a retaliatory drone attack several hours later. Israel doesn’t appear to backdown though with media around noon reporting a second wave. According to US president Trump “there’s a lot more to come”. At the heart of the conflict lies Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme of which it says is for civilian purposes only (nuclear energy).
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
USD/JPY rebounded ahead of 142.51 support as sideway trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 142.10 support will resume the fall from 148.64 to retest 139.87 low. On the upside, above 145.46 will turn bias to the upside for 146.27 first. Firm break there will target 148.64 resistance.
Fed Preview: Still on the Sidelines - Action Forex
FOMC participants have remained mostly on the sidelines since the May meeting. Some have sounded open to the idea of cutting 1-2 more times during rest of 2025, but most have carefully avoided influencing financial conditions amid the tariff uncertainty. Current market pricing is just slightly below the Fed's March median 'dots' for 2025-26 despite the significant market volatility observed ever since (chart 1).
Week Ahead – Markets Brace for Central Bank Barrage Amid Heightened Uncertainty - Action Forex
Risk appetite remained supported during the first half of the week as the US and China agreed on a framework to implement the accord reached in Geneva last month. However, despite the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq getting closer to their record highs due to hopes that tariffs will not distort the economic outlook that much, the dollar was unable to recharge.
The Weekly Bottom Line: Trade Tensions De-escalate Just as Geopolitical Tensions Heat-up - Action Forex
A further de-escalation in trade tensions came this week, with the U.S. and China announcing on Wednesday that they had reached a ‘framework’ of a trade deal. That same day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled an openness to extend the administration’s current 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs beyond July 9th for those countries who are ‘negotiating in good faith’. While the combined announcements helped to provide a temporary lift to equity markets, a further escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on Thursday evening sent shockwaves through global financial markets, pushing the S&P 500 modestly lower on the week. Oil prices shot higher by $4.5 per-barrel, with WTI currently trading at an 18-week high of $72.5. Meanwhile, cooler readings on CPI and PPI for the month of May, alongside healthy demand in 10-and-30-year Treasury auctions helped to pressure term-yields 10-15 basis points lower on the week, with the 10-year currently sitting at 4.38%.
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Few Signs of Tariff Inflation - Action Forex
This week was all about prices, and thus far, the expected tariff-induced inflation pickup has yet to appear in the hard data. Both consumer and producer price growth came in cooler than expected in May with only hints of tariff-related price pressures in specific categories. It is still the early innings, however, and we expect price growth to accelerate as the year progresses.
Geopolitical Escalation Fuels Risk Aversion; Dollar Still Lags Despite Bounce - Action Forex
Risk aversion dominates global markets today as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify, though the broader equity selloff has remained contained so far. The trigger came early Friday when Israel launched a series of airstrikes deep into Iranian territory, targeting key military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran retaliated with a wave of drone attacks aimed at Israel—estimated at around 100 drones. The development marked a sharp escalation in hostilities that took markets by surprise. While the US has so far distanced itself from the conflict, analysts have warned that any Iranian attack on American bases could pull Washington into the war, an outcome that would significantly raise the stakes for global markets.
Weekly Focus - Geopolitics Back in the Spotlight - Action Forex
With an Israeli attack on Iran early on Friday, geopolitics is strongly back to the agenda. This time around, the attack was larger in scale and more severe than the strikes we saw last year. Hence, Iranian retaliation is also expected to be stronger and has already started. Simultaneously, Israel is saying that the operation will last several days. We think one of the key determinants for markets will be whether Iran shows some restraint in their retaliation and abstains from targeting US bases in the region, or whether it chooses otherwise, and we witness the US getting absorbed into a new conflict in Middle East.
Crypto Market Tests Support Again - Action Forex
Market capitalisation fell to $3.22 trillion on Friday morning from a peak of $3.47 trillion at the end of Wednesday amid a flight from risk assets due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. In recent hours, the market has rebounded from the support line that has been in place since May, reaching $3.28 trillion. Technical levels are working in the short term, but they may prove powerless in the event of a broader liquidation of bulls with a breakout of support in the $3.20–3.25 trillion range. In this case, the market could easily drop to $3 trillion or even target cyclical support in the $2.50 trillion area.
U.S. Fed to Holds Rates as Canada’s Retail Sales Show Resilience amid Tariffs - Action Forex
The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to forego an interest rate cut again on Wednesday. The central bank has been on pause since December after cutting the fed funds rate by 100 basis points in the second half of 2024.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.3631 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3455 support holds. Firm break of 1.3631 will resume the rally from 1.2099 and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. On the downside, break of 1.3455 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3309) instead.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.1630 temporary top. . Further rally is expected as long as 1.1372 support holds. Above 1.1630 will resume the rally from 1.0176 to 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, break of 1.1372 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.
Gold Ready to Update All-Time Highs - Action Forex
The insatiable appetite of central banks has resulted in an increase in the share of gold value in reserves to 20%. Precious metals have surpassed the euro’s 16% share. Only the US dollar is ahead with 46%. In 2022-2024, regulators increased their purchases to more than 1,000 tonnes annually. As a result, their combined gold reserves grew to 36,000 tonnes by the end of last year. They are now very close to the record set in 1965 of 38,000 tonnes.
Israel Strikes Iran, Raising Tension Before US Talks - Action Forex
In the Middle East, Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear and military sites has caused oil prices to surge by 9% to USD 75.65 per barrel. This occurs just days before US-Iran nuclear negotiations set in Oman for Sunday. Yesterday, Trump commented that negotiations were "fairly close to a pretty good agreement" and expressed his desire for Israel to refrain from attacking Iran, as it might jeopardise the prospects of a deal. The attack adds significant uncertainty to diplomacy, with US officials denying direct involvement while cautioning that it could either hinder or, unexpectedly, pressure Iran towards discussions.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.7245 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.8054. Firm break there will pave the way to 1.8554. On the downside, below 1.7720 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but further rise is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 163.15) holds. Above 166.73 will resume the rise from 154.77 to 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.77 at 167.38.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3631 but quickly retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Firm break of 1.3631 will resume the rally from 1.2099 and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. On the downside, break of 1.3455 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3309) instead.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
EURCHF reversed after hitting 0.9428 but recovered quickly ahead of 0.9291 support Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9428 will resume the rebound from 0.9218 through 0.9445 resistance. However, break of 0.9291 will bring retest of 0.9218 instead.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside, with immediate focus now on 0.8038 low. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound, and above 0.816 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, firm break of 0.8038 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757.
AUD/USD Daily Report - Action Forex
AUD/USD's break of 0.6478 support indicates short term topping at 0.6545, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6416). Firm break there will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6545 at 0.6304. On the upside, break of 0.6545 will resume the rise from 0.5913 instead.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3603 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.3349. On the upside, through, break of 1.3727 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
EU exports drop -1.9% yoy in April as shipments to China plunge -15.9% yoy - Action Forex
Eurozone trade data for April showed signs of weakening external demand, with goods exports falling -1.4% yoy to EUR 243.0B, while imports edged up 0.1% yoy to EUR 233.1B. Despite the drop in exports, the region maintained a trade surplus of EUR 9.9B, helped by subdued import growth. Intra-Eurozone trade also declined, down -2.0% yoy to EUR 217.3B.
Markets Slide as Israel Strikes Iran, Safe Havens Climb - Action Forex
Asia-Pacific equities slumped today after Israel launched a military strike on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. The strike, which came without US support, was followed by a sharp vow of retaliation from Tehran. The immediate reaction saw oil prices spike nearly 9%, as traders rushed to price in potential supply disruptions across the Middle East. The risk-off mood gripped markets across asset classes, dragging equities lower and boosting safe havens.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for the moment. Current rebound from 0.8354 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8591. Firm break there will pave the way to 0.8373 resistance. On the downside, below 0.8475 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
Oil Prices Surged More Than 13% at Some Point - Action Forex
Oil prices surged more than 13% at some point. Brent pared some of those gains but still trades around $75/b, the highest since early April. Around a month ago, Brent was struggling not to drop below $60/b. Yesterday’s economic data included slower than expected PPIs and an unexpected increase in jobless claims to 248k. Both of secondary importance but coming after the slight miss in the CPI the day before nevertheless picked up as an argument for some bond buying. And then finally the 30-year US bond sale.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rally is expected as long as 1.1372 support holds. Above 1.1630 will resume the rally from 1.0176 to 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, break of 1.1372 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, break of 142.10 support will resume the fall from 148.64 to retest 139.87 low. On the upside, above 145.46 will turn bias to the upside for 146.27 first. Firm break there will target 148.64 resistance.
Eurozone industrial production down -2.4% mom in April, broad-based weakness - Action Forex
Eurozone industrial production dropped sharply by -2.4% mom in April, significantly below expectations of a -1.6% decline. Output fell in all major categories, with non-durable consumer goods posting the steepest drop at -3.0%. Capital goods, energy (-1.1%), and intermediate goods (-0.7%) also contracted. Durable consumer goods saw a modest -0.2% fall, offering little relief in an otherwise dismal report.
Israel Strikes Iran. Oil and Gold Prices Surge - Action Forex
According to media reports, Israel launched a large-scale overnight strike on Iranian territory, targeting dozens of military and strategic facilities linked to the country’s nuclear programme and missile capabilities. Israeli officials justified the action by citing an existential threat from Tehran, which, according to their intelligence, is accelerating its development of nuclear weapons and expanding its arsenal of ballistic missiles.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35 to 199.79 resistance, and possibly further to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.
GBPUSD Calling the Rally After Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern - Action Forex
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of GBPUSD Forex pair published in members area of the website. As our members know GBPUSD is bullish against the 1.3410 pivot in first degree. Recently the pair made a clear three-wave correction. The pull back completed as Elliott Wave Double Three pattern and made rally as expected.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/USD's rise from 1.1064 resumed by breaking through 1.1494 and intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1572 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to bring another fall, to extend the near term consolidation pattern. Firm break of 1.1404 support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.1209 first. However, decisive break of 1.1572 will resume whole rise from 1.0176.
EUR/USD Rallies Past 1.1500 as USD Tumbles on Fresh Tariff Threat - Action Forex
The US dollar is significantly lower following the CPI release and renewed tariff and debt concerns. The EURUSD finally cleared the 1.15 offers and is consolidating above that level, while CAble is back above the 1.35 mark. Reeve’s announcement of spending details had little market impact— no surprise is a good surprise, here. The USDJPY is breaking below its 50-DMA support on broad USD weakness, while gold is up for a second session as the yellow metal regains safe-haven demand amid waning trade optimism.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
GBP/JPY is extending the consolidation pattern from 196.38 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35 to 199.79 resistance, and possibly further to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.