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GBP/USD is staying in consolidations below 1.3476 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further is expected as long as 1.3344 minor support holds. Correction from 1.3787 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3140. Above 1.3476 will target 1.3587 resistance first. However, break of 1.3344 minor support will dampen this bullish case, and turn bias to the downside for deeper fall.
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 199.96 will resume whole rise from 184.35. Next target is 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. On the downside, below 198.16 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral again.
UK labor market data for July showed a slight deterioration in employment alongside a modest easing in pay growth. Payrolled employment fell by -8k, or -0.0% m/m, marking a -0.5% yoy drop compared to the same period last year. The number of payrolled employees has been trending lower since peaking in 2024, highlighting a gradual cooling in hiring momentum. Median monthly pay growth slowed marginally to 5.7% yoy from 5.8% yoy, while the claimant count dropped by -6.2k, sharply better than expectations of a 20.8k increase.
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral with focus on 172.36 resistance. Sustained trading above there will bring retest of 173.87 first. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 154.77 to retest 175.41 high. While corrective pattern from 173.87 might extend lower, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound.
EUR/CHF's rally resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Decisive break of 0.9445 resistance will resume the whole rebound from 0.9218. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. On the downside, though, below 0.9398 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.
EUR/USD is staying in range trading below 1.1698 and intraday bias stays neutral. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 1.1829 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1390. Above 1.1698 will bring retest of 1.1829. However, break of 1.1526 support will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 1.1390 instead.
USD/JPY's extended rebound and break of 148.07 resistance suggests that pullback from 150.90 has completed at 146.61 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 150.90 first. Firm break there will resume the whole rally from 139.87 to 151.22 fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 146.61 support holds, in case of retreat.
RBA cuts cash rate 0.25ppts to 3.6%, with more cuts assumed to be needed to keep inflation at target. Worst-case outcomes on global trade have been avoided, but RBA is now more pessimistic about near-term growth in output and productivity.
In the US, focus will be on the July CPI report. We forecast headline inflation at 0.2% m/m SA (prior: 0.3% m/m), and core inflation slightly higher at 0.3% m/m SA (prior: 0.2% m/m). With markets now pricing in a September rate cut after a weak jobs report, the CPI will offer crucial insights for the Fed's upcoming decision.
US July inflation numbers lead today’s agenda. Consensus expects headline CPI to rise by 0.2% M/M with annual figure ticking up from 2.7% to 2.8%. Core CPI is estimated to accelerate to 0.3% M/M and 3% Y/Y (from 2.9%). It’s the second of three Summer inflation reports which Fed Chair Powell suggested would be indicative on the impact of US President Trump’s trade policy and which could impact the US central bank’s reaction function when it meets next in September.
The EUR/USD pair dipped to 1.1620 on Tuesday following sharp swings in the previous session. Investors are bracing for the release of US inflation data, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment as sideway trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 1.7972 resistance should confirm that corrective pattern from 1.8094 has completed at 1.7671. Further rise should then be seen through 1.8094, to resume the rebound from 1.7245. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. On the downside, below 1.7671 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7459 support instead.
No change in EUR/GBP's outlook as consolidations continue below 0.8752 short term top. Intraday bias stays neutral. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. On the upside, firm break of 0.8752 will resume the rise from 0.8354 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.
AUD/USD lost momentum after rebounding to 0.6540 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Price actions from 0.6624 are seen as a corrective pattern. Above 0.6540 will extend the rebound from 0.6418 to rest 0.66624 high. On the downside, firm break of 0.6449 support will suggest that the pattern is in it third leg, and deeper fall should be seen through 0.6148 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.
German investor sentiment weakened sharply in August, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index falling from 52.7 to 34.7, well below expectations of 40.0. Current Situation Index deteriorated further from -59.5 to -68.6, also missing forecasts of -63.0. .
USD/CHF rebounded after drawing support from 55 4H EMA a few times, but stays below 0.8170 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. ON the upside, firm break of 0.8710 will resume the corrective from 0.7871. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7871 at 0.8379. On the downside, though, break of 0.8020 will revive that case that the corrective pattern has completed, and target a retest on 0.7871 low.
The Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has staged the expected bullish move and rallied by 5.5% since our last publication on 6 August, cleared above its prior all-time high of 42,513 printed in July last year, and hit a fresh record high of 43,009 in today’s Asia session led by banking stocks.
No change in USD/CAD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 1.3720 will reaffirm the case that corrective pattern from 1.3538 has completed at 1.3878. Further decline should then be seen back to retest 1.3538 low. However, break of 1.3809 will bring retest of 1.3878. Further break there will extend the corrective rebound from 1.3538 with another rising leg.
Bitcoin is trading above $122K, testing historical highs. An important area of resistance was around $120K. For the media, it is formally important to update the highs, although from a technical point of view, the breakthrough has already been made. The bull’s nearest target now looks to be the $135-138K area.
China’s headline CPI registered 0.0% yoy in July, slipping from June’s 0.1% yoy but avoiding the small -0.1% yoy decline economists had forecast. Core inflation picked up to 0.8% yoy, the highest since February 2023, driven largely by firmer service prices which went up 0.5% yoy. Food prices fell -1.6% yoy.
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral as range trading continues. Corrective pattern from 173.87 could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 172.36 will bring retest of 173.87 first. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 154.77 to retest 175.41 high.
Bitcoin surges past 120,000 today and is closing in on new record. Market dynamics points to a powerful short squeeze as a large liquidity pool near current levels is forcing traders with bearish bets to buy back at higher prices, adding fuel to an already rapid climb. Short sellers appear increasingly vulnerable as momentum accelerates.
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.3720 will reaffirm the case that corrective pattern from 1.3538 has completed at 1.3878. Further decline should then be seen back to retest 1.3538 low. However, break of 1.3809 will bring retest of 1.3878. Further break there will extend the corrective rebound from 1.3538 with another rising leg.
Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside this point. Correction from 1.3787 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3140. Further rally should be seen to 1.3587 resistance first. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 1.3787 high. However, break of 1.3344 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn bias neutral again first.
Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.7972 resistance should confirm that corrective pattern from 1.8094 has completed at 1.7671. Further rise should then be seen through 1.8094, to resume the rebound from 1.7245. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. On the downside, below 1.7671 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7459 support instead.
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective fall from 0.6624 could have completed at 0.6418 already. Further rise would be seen to retest this high. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6449 will argue that the pattern from 0.6624 is extending with another falling leg. Break of 0.6418 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.9426 temporary top. As noted before, corrective pattern from 0.9445 should have completed with three waves to 0.9265. Firm break of 0.9428 should confirm this bullish case, and target 0.9445 and then 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9362) with extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.
Markets began the week in tight ranges, with traders reluctant to take big positions. The August 12 deadline for a US–China trade deal is a major headline risk. For now, markets are betting heavily on an extension, with another 90-day truce seen as the most probable outcome.
The week starts with gains in most Asian indices, and futures are in the positive in the early hours of the trading week. The S&P 500 posted its strongest week since late June on the back of robust earnings, further appetite for technology stocks, and hopes of progress in the Ukrainian war. Trade and tariff chaos have been, for now, left behind – which has translated into improved sentiment in the Stoxx 600, although the concrete implications will come to investors’ attention in waves as data flows in and shows the damage.
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 1.1829 should have completed with three waves down to 1.1390. Above 1.1698 will bring retest of 1.1829. However, break of 1.1526 support will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 1.1390 instead.
Consolidation from 0.8752 short term top is still extending and intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. On the upside, firm break of 0.8752 will resume the rise from 0.8354 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside for retesting 199.96 resistance first. Decisive break there resume whole rise from 184.35. Next target is 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. On the downside, below 197.35 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral again. In this case, corrective pattern from 199.96 would extend with another falling leg.
Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.8020 will solidify the case that corrective pattern from 0.7871 has completed at 0.8170. Further fall should be seen back to retest 0.7871 low. However, break of 0.8710 will resume the corrective rise towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7871 at 0.8379.
Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. As long as 145.84 support holds, larger rebound from 139.87 is still expected to continue. On the upside, above 148.07 minor resistance will bring retest of 150.90 high first. However, decisive break of 145.84 will indicate near term bearish reversal and target 142.66 support next.