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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
USD/CHF's rally from 0.8374 resumed last week but retreated after hitting 0.9020. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside should be contained above 0.8735 support to bring another rally. Above 0.9020 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8374 to 0.8956 from 0.8735 at 0.9095.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
GBP/USD's fall from 1.3433 attempted to resume last week by breaching 1.2486, but quickly recovered after dipping to 1.2474. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Break of 1.2474 will target 1.2298 cluster support zone.
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
USD/CAD's up trend continued to as high as 1.4466 last week but retreated after breaching 1.4391 projection level. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.4177 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.4466 and sustained trading above 1.4391 will pave the way to retest 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/USD tried to resume the fall from 1.1213 last week but failed to break through 1.0330 support and recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0330 will confirm decline resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.0936 to 10330 from 1.0629 at 1.0254, and then 100% projection at 1.0023.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
USD/JPY's rally from 139.57 resumed last week but retreated quickly after hitting 157.91. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 153.15 support holds. Break of 157.91 will target 61.8% projection of 139.57 to 156.74 from 148.64 at 159.25 next.
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.9417 last week and the strong break of 0.9343 resistance suggests that corrective rebound from 0.9204 has completed already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.9254 support first. Break there will bring retest of 0.9204 low. On the upside, above 0.9340 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral.
Dollar to Pause for Consolidation After Failing to Break Euro Resistance Post-Fed - Action Forex
The financial markets were jolted by Fed’s hawkish rate cut last week, sending ripples across stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, and even cryptocurrencies. Fed’s indication of prolonged restrictive monetary policy fueled risk aversion, pushing Dollar to end the week as the strongest performer in the currency markets, supported by surging yields and elevated Fed expectations.
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/GBP rebounded ahead of 0.8201 key support again last week but upside was limited below 0.8326 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8326 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8446 structural resistance next.
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/JPY's rally from 156.16 extended higher last week. The development is in line with the case that corrective pattern from 154.04 is extending with another rising leg. Initial bias stays on the upside for 166.67 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 159.79 support holds, in case of retreat.
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/AUD's rally from 1.5963 continued last week and the break of 1.6598 resistance confirmed that correction from 1.7180 has already completed, after defending 1.5995 key support. But as a temporary top was formed at 1.6712, initial bias stays neutral for consolidations first. On the upside, break of 1.6712 will resume the rally from 1.5693 to retest 1.7180 high next.
AUD/USD Weekly Report - Action Forex
AUD/USD's fall from 0.6941 accelerated to as low as 0.6198 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.6511 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.6198 will target 0.6169 long term support, and then 138.2% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6074.
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
GBP/JPY's rose further to 198.93 last week as corrective pattern from 180.00 extended with another rising leg. As a temporary top was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 194.04 support holds. Break of 199.79 will target channel resistance (now at 203.09).
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Firm break of 1.0330 support will resume the fall from 1.1213 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0936 to 10330 from 1.0629 at 1.0254, and then 100% projection at 1.0023. On the upside, above 1.0452 will turn intraday bias neutral again first.
US PCE inflation ticks up to 2.4% yoy, core unchanged at 2.8% yoy - Action Forex
US headline PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in November, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) also rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Prices for goods increased less than 0.1% mom and prices for services increased 0.2% mom. Food prices increased 0.2% mom and energy prices also increased 0.2% mom.
Weekly Focus - Hawkish Christmas Present from US Federal Reserve - Action Forex
The tradition of central banks hosting meetings just before Christmas continued this year with policy decisions in the US, Japan, UK, Norway, and Sweden. The largest present came from the US Federal Reserve in the shape of a significant hawkish surprise. Fed cut the policy rate target by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% as expected, but Powell delivered a clearly hawkish message, highlighting that the easing cycle has entered a "new phase" in which the Fed is looking to slow down the pace of rate cuts. The updated "dots" now project only two 25bp cuts next year compared to four in the September projections. The main reason for the hawkish turn was an upward revision of the inflation forecast to 2.5% y/y in 2025 (from 2.1%) and the fact that most members even saw upside risks to the new inflation projections. The decision pushed the entire UST curve up by some 13-15bp, and the market is now pricing only 40bp worth of cuts from the Fed next year. Due to the change in guidance, we have removed our expectations for a cut in January but continue to expect four cuts next year from March.
Markets Weekly Outlook – S&P 500 in Focus as Markets Brace for Holiday Lull - Action Forex
A week that finally confirmed the long anticipated ‘pivot’ by the Federal Reserve from a policy perspective. I do not like using the word pivot until the Fed actually confirms that rate cuts are over, however, this week’s announcement and update to the economic projections have had such an impact.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidations below 0.9020 temporary top Some more consolidations could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 0.8735 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.9020 will resume the rally from 0.8374. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.8374 to 0.8956 from 0.8735 at 0.9095.
October GDP to Look Marginally Stronger After Slew of Weak Data - Action Forex
The final major data point from Statistics Canada in 2024 will be Monday’s gross domestic product release for October, which will be the last GDP print before the Bank of Canada’s Jan. 29 meeting. We look for a 0.2% increase that would be the strongest monthly gain since April, and firmer than the 0.1% advance estimate a month ago.
Canada: Retail Sales Enter Holiday Season on a Solid Footing - Action Forex
Canadians embraced the festive spirit in October, with spending gaining momentum as the official retail holiday season got underway. While the advance estimate for November suggests some softening, the GST holiday is expected to ring in stronger sales for December, giving retail cash registers a boost.
Sunset Market Commentary - Action Forex
The EC and Switzerland confirmed the completion of negotiations of a broad package of agreements that aim to deepen and expand the EU-Switzerland relationship. It includes an update of five agreements which already give Switzerland access to the EU internal market – air transport, land transport, the free movement of persons, conformity assessment and trade in agricultural products. Each agreement will reflect the evolution of EU legislation in the area concerned and will ensure it is updated dynamically. The agreements will include dispute resolution provisions and State aid disciplines will apply where relevant.
US Dollar Ends the Year on a Strong Note - Action Forex
The U.S. dollar ends the year on a strong note, hitting two-year highs at 108.45. The Fed expects a 50-point rate cut for the full year 2025 versus 4 cuts one quarter earlier, citing higher inflation forecasts and a stubbornly strong labour market. This fundamental change has given a new impetus to the dollar’s rise that began in late September.
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: That's a Wrap - Action Forex
The outlook for 2025 is riddled with uncertainty, yet data released this week demonstrate a U.S. economy that retains momentum. Ascertaining what level of policy restraint achieves the careful balance of keeping inflation in check and easing stress on interest-rate sensitive sectors will dominate the monetary policy discussion come 2025.
WTI Oil Drifts Lower But Strong Support Below - Action Forex
WTI Oil (Cash) is headed for a fifth straight day of declines, slipping below 69.00 and widening the gap with the Ichimoku cloud. The technical indicators are bearish, but to a varying extent. The stochastic oscillator is diving towards the oversold region, suggesting that an upside correction could be on the cards soon. However, the MACD is only marginally negative and remains above its red signal line, pointing to some bullish support as well as scope for greater losses.
Dollar Pauses After PCE Miss, Markets Digest Fed Comments - Action Forex
Dollar's strong rally paused in early US trading after PCE inflation data came in below expectations, easing concerns that Fed might maintain higher rates for an extended period. Markets are also digesting remarks from Fed officials following the hawkish rate cut earlier in the week.
How Deep Will Crypto Dive? - Action Forex
The crypto market continues to retreat, having lost 4.4% to $3.36 trillion in the last 24 hours and already over 11% from the all-time peak of $3.79 trillion set on Tuesday. While the sell-off in stock markets has slowed, cryptocurrencies are maintaining or even picking up the pace of the decline. This return to early December levels is reminiscent of the rally locking in from November or all the growth of 2024. In the former case, the sell-off could pause in the $3.2 trillion area (-5% from current levels), while in the latter case, the sell-off could pause in the territory below $3 trillion with potential above 12.5%. Despite the threat of a deeper correction, we remain positive on the outlook for the year ahead.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and breach of 156.39 minor support. Some consolidations would be seen first, but further rally is expected as long as 153.15 support holds. On the upside, above 157.91 will resume the rise from 139.57, and target 61.8% projection of 139.57 to 156.74 from 148.64 at 159.25 next.
The Weekly Bottom Line: Fed Signals a More Cautionary Stance on Rate Cuts Next Year - Action Forex
The Federal Reserve delivered some sour candy to cap off 2024, cutting its policy rate by 25 basis points, but signaling a more moderate pace of cuts next year. This hawkish tilt sent Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year rising from just under 4.4% to briefly over 4.6%. Equity markets took the news hard, with the S&P 500 down roughly 3.5% from pre-meeting levels at time of writing. Part of the weak equity market performance may also have to do with a looming government shutdown. Washington has only a few hours to pass a funding bill into law. Failure to do so will lead to a partial government shutdown. Essential services would continue, but most federal workers wouldn’t receive a paycheck. In addition, some workers would be furloughed until Congress passes new funding. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that some 875 thousand federal workers would be furloughed.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside at this point. Current decline from 1.3433 should target 61.8% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2486 from 1.2810 at 1.2225. On the upside, above 1.2607 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2810 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
U.S. Personal Income Growth Continues, While Spending Picks Up Pace in November - Action Forex
Consumers kept their purse strings open last month, and it seems that many were on the lookout for new car. This could partially reflect the post-hurricane replacement demand. For the fourth quarter a whole, consumer spending looks to increase by 3%, only a small downshift from 3.5% pace seen in Q3. Looking at the year as whole, U.S. consumers are finishing 2024 in strong financial shape thanks to wealth gains in equity markets and continued job gains. As a result, spending growth outpaced income for much of this year (with October being a notable exception).
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside as rise from 156.16 is in progress. Corrective pattern from 154.40 is extending with another up-leg. Further rise should be seen to 166.67 resistance and possibly above. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 159.79 support holds, in case of retreat.
Brent Oil Under Pressure Again: USD and China in Focus - Action Forex
H4 chart analysis: on the H4 timeframe, Brent continues to trade within a broad consolidation range around the 73.13 USD level. The market recently extended this range upwards to 73.40 USD. However, a downward move to 71.93 USD appears imminent. If the market manages to break out of this range to the upside, the next target lies at 75.05 USD, with the potential for further gains towards the 80.00 USD level.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
GBP/USD's breach of 1.2486 support suggests that fall from 1.3433 is resuming. Intraday bias stays on the downside, and deeper fall would be seen to 1.2298 and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2486 from 1.2810 at 1.2225. On the upside, above 1.2607 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2810 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the upside at this point. Current rally is part of the larger up trend. Sustained trading above 1.4391 projection level will pave the way to 1.4667 long term resistance. On the downside, below 1.4304 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Corrective rebound from 0.9204 could have completed with three waves up to 0.9417. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.9254 support first. Firm break there will bring deeper fall to 0.9209 key support again. On the upside, above 0.9353 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 0.9020 temporary top. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8735 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.9020 will resume the rally from 0.8374. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.8374 to 0.8956 from 0.8735 at 0.9095.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays on the downside. Firm break of 1.0330 support will resume the fall from 1.1213 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0936 to 10330 from 1.0629 at 1.0254, and then 100% projection at 1.0023. On the upside, above 1.0452 will turn intraday bias neutral again first.