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USD/CAD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 1.4014/7 will suggest that USD/CAD is already reversing the whole fall from 1.4719, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4312. On the downside, firm break of 1.3930 support will indicate rejection by 1.4014/7 cluster resistance. That would keep the rebound from 1.3538 corrective, and turn bias to the downside for 1.3725 support.
China trade in September, exports and imports surge, surplus narrows - Action Forex
China’s trade figures for September delivered a mixed picture. Exports rose 8.3% yoy, well above forecasts of 6.0% and marking the fastest pace in six months. Imports jumped 7.4% yoy, the strongest gain since April 2024 and far exceeding expectations of 1.5%.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen. Further rise is expected as long as 175.03 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 177.91 will target 61.8% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 172.24 at 180.15 next. However, firm break of 175.03 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 172.24 support.
Bound to See Sentiment-Driven Trading in a Daily Perspective - Action Forex
With Japanese market shut as well and an empty economic calendar, we’re bound to see sentiment-driven trading in a daily perspective with some distraction coming from the annual IMF/World Bank meeting kickoff. Asian markets still suffer from Trump’s latest tariff threat, despite the US administration late yesterday signalling it remains open to a deal.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Fall from 1.8155 could have completed at 1.7569 already. Further rise should be seen to 18155 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.8554 has also completed and bring retest of this high. On the downside, below 55 4H EMA (now at 1.7730) will turn bias neutral and mix up the outlook.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and some consolidations could be seen above 1.1540. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.1778 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.1540 will resume the fall form 1.1917 to 1.1390 , or further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252.
EUR/USD Stages a Correction Amid Sustained Pressure - Action Forex
The euro remains under pressure as escalating trade risks fuel market anxiety. A sharp sell-off was triggered by Donald Trump's announcement of a potential 100% tariff on Chinese goods, spurring a flight to safe-haven assets and boosting demand for the US dollar. This initiative is seen as a significant escalation in trade confrontation, posing a substantial threat to global exporters—particularly the eurozone economy, which is deeply integrated with China through complex supply chains and industrial exports.
Crypto Market Recovers from Tariff Shock - Action Forex
The crypto market capitalisation stood at $3.9 trillion on Monday, up 4.4% from the previous day but down 6% from pre-Friday crash levels. On Friday, the US stock market saw its biggest drop since April but recovered some of its losses on Monday. Since Sunday, the crypto market has been attempting to rebound after a sell-off that began as an emotional reaction to tariff initiatives by China and the US but escalated into massive margin calls and stop orders being triggered.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 1.3260 temporary low. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 1.3787 is extending. Below 1.3260 will bring deeper decline but strong support should be seen from 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142) to contain downside. On the upside, break of 1.3526 will bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3728/87 resistance zone.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. With 201.24 resistance turned support intact, further rally is still in favor. Break of 205.30 will target 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 199.96 from 197.47 at 207.11. However, firm break of 201.24 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 197.47 support instead.
US-China Trade: New Trade Escalation Turns Focus to Xi-Trump Meeting - Action Forex
On Friday, Trump threatened China with 100% tariffs on top of the existing rates as a retaliation against China's new export control measures on rare earth minerals. However, comments received over the weekend appear to downplay the risk of trade war escalation.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen. Downside should be contained above 149.95 resistance turned support. Break of 153.26 will target 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 158.80. However, decisive break of 149.95 will bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 148.22) instead.
AUD/USD Daily Report - Action Forex
AUD/USD recovered notably today and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Still, risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.6628 resistance holds. Current development suggests rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance. Below 0.6472 will resume the fall from 0.6706 to 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403).
U.S.–China War of Words Jolts Asia, Yet U.S. Futures Signal Contained Fallout - Action Forex
Asian equities started the week sharply lower after renewed flare-up in U.S.–China trade tensions, though signs from U.S. futures suggested that sentiment hadn’t worsened materially beyond last Friday’s selloff. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped nearly -3.5% by midday, leading regional loss. The declines came after Beijing recently tightened export controls on rare earth minerals, prompting US President Donald Trump to retaliate with a threat of 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting November 1.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 0.8075 temporary top. Price actions from 0.7828 are currently seen as correcting whole fall from 0.9200. Above 0.8075 will target 0.8170 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7944 support will bring retest of 0.7828 low instead.
Trump Revives Trade War With New Tariffs on China - Action Forex
In global trade, US President Donald Trump caught markets (and us) by surprise on Friday as he posted on Truth Social he would impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods on top of existing tariffs, see US-China trade - New trade escalation turns focus to Xi-Trump meeting, 13 October. In addition, he threatened to put new export controls "virtually every product they make" and on "all critical software products". The measures were a response to China announcing new export controls on rare earth minerals on Thursday last week. The tariffs would not come into effect until 1 November, though, which leaves time for talks and a possible deal with China when Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping meet at end of this month at the sidelines of APEC Summit.
EUR/CAD: Euro pullback and Loonie resilience could amplify downside risks - Action Forex
Canadian Dollar is holding its ground as one of the month’s best-performing currencies so far, supported by surprisingly strong domestic data despite a slump in oil prices. WTI crude’s drop through 60 last week would normally pressure the Loonie, but September’s upbeat employment figures more than offset that drag.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.9452 should target 0.9265 support. Firm break there should confirm that whole corrective rebound from 0.9218 has completed at 0.9452, and deeper fall should be seen to 0.9204/18 support zone. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9330 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
Canadian Employment Makes a Comeback – USD/CAD Reverses - Action Forex
Markets just received the Canadian labor report — and unlike the still-missing U.S. one (thanks, government shutdown), this one actually delivered. Canada added +60K jobs vs. +5K expected, a sharp rebound from last month’s -65K loss.
Weekly Focus - France to Get Yet Another Prime Minister - Action Forex
This week was dominated by political events. On Monday, France's newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after just 26 days in the role, triggering yet another political crisis in the country. And on Wednesday evening, news emerged that Israel and Hamas would be ready to sign a ceasefire deal, pausing a devastating war that has lasted for two years and destabilised Middle East. Despite political news, markets were mostly calm this week with equities moving sideways and dollar stronger. France's 10-year bond yields reversed the initial increase towards the end of the week as markets were getting increasingly optimistic regarding budget talks. A new PM is set to be named soon.
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/AUD dipped to 1.7569 last week but the last reversal pushed it through 1.7929 resistance. The development suggests that fall from 1.8155 has completed already. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 1.8155 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.8554 has also completed and bring retest of this high. On the downside, below 55 D EMA (now at 1.7794) will turn bias neutral and mix up the outlook.
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
USD/CAD's rise from 1.3538 resumed last week and reached as high as 1.4033. However, it couldn't sustain above 1.4014/7 key cluster resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.4014/7 will suggest that USD/CAD is already reversing the whole fall from 1.4719, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4312. On the downside, firm break of 1.3930 support will indicate rejection by 1.4014/7 cluster resistance. That would keep the rebound from 1.3538 corrective, and turn bias to the downside for 1.3725 support.
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7828 resumed last week, but retreated after hitting 0.8075. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Price actions from 0.7828 are currently seen as correcting whole fall from 0.9200. Above 0.8075 will target 0.8170 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7944 support will bring retest of 0.7828 low.
The Weekly Bottom Line: No Data, No Problem - Action Forex
Up until Friday, markets had been relatively calm amid the ongoing government shutdown, which has entered its 10th day. President Trump’s threat to increase tariffs on China this morning, in response to China’s export controls on rare-earth metals, has upended that. President Trump has gone so far as to declare he is not interested in meeting President Xi in person as previously scheduled for the end of the month, leading to a sharp sell-off in US equities and pushing Treasury yields lower. Markets stoically withstood the failure of seven separate proposals to re-open the government, but the possible breakdown of U.S.-China trade negotiations may be too much to bear. If that wasn’t enough, the end of the shutdown is not clearly in sight. The Senate is now adjourned until October 14, which all but guarantees that military members will miss a full pay cycle, an unprecedented development.
Forward Guidance: U.S. Tariffs Likely Continued to Weigh on Canadian Industries in August - Action Forex
Early Canadian gross domestic product and net trade data have broadly showed signs the economy is stabilizing after contracting in Q2. However, heavily trade-exposed sectors remain under significant pressure, driving expectations for softer industry data on Wednesday.
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Data Delayed, Decisions Loom - Action Forex
The federal government shutdown continues to delay economic data releases, including international trade and jobless claims this week. That said, the September Consumer Price Index is now expected to be published before the end of the month, just in time for the FOMC's next meeting.
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/CHF's fall from 0.9452 resumed last week and continued to the end despite interim recovery. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 0.9265 support first. Firm break there should confirm that whole corrective rebound from 0.9218 has completed at 0.9452, and deeper fall should be seen to 0.9204/18 support zone. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9330 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
GBP/USD's fall from 1.3725 resumed last week but recovered after hitting 1.3260. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 1.3787 is extending. Below 1.3260 will bring deeper decline but strong support should be seen from 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142) to contain downside. On the upside, break of 1.3526 will bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3728/87 resistance zone.
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/GBP rebounded notably after gyrating to 0.8654 last week. Current development suggests that pullback from 0.8750 has possibly completed, and near term bullishness is retained. Initial bias is back on the upside for 0.8750 first. Firm break there will resume larger rally towards 0.8867 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 0.8654 will resume the fall from 0.8750 to 0.8631 support next.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/USD's fall from 1.1917 resumed last week, but recovered after hitting 1.1540. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.1778 resistance holds. Below 1.1540 will target 1.1390 support or further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
USD/JPY surged sharply to as high as 153.26 last week but retreated from there. Initial bias stays neutral for consolidations, and downside should be contained above 149.95 resistance turned support. Break of 153.26 will target 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 158.80. However, decisive break of 149.95 will bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 148.22) instead.
Trade War Shock Roils Markets in a Politically Charged Week - Action Forex
Yet all of these developments were ultimately overshadowed by a late-week shock from Washington. US President Donald Trump reignited the U.S.–China trade war, announcing plans for 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting Nov 1 and threatening to impose sweeping export controls. The escalation triggered a sharp sell-off in U.S. equities and a flight into Treasuries, erasing weeks of calm.
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/JPY's up trend resumed last week and surged to as high as 177.91, but retreated sharply since then. Though, downside is contained above 175.03 resistance turned support. Initial bias stays neutral this week and another rise remains in favor. On the upside, break of 177.91 will target 61.8% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 172.24 at 180.15 next. However, firm break of 175.03 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 172.24 support.
AUD/USD Weekly Report - Action Forex
AUD/USD's fall from 0.6706 resumed last week by late break of 0.6519 support. Current development suggests rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6628 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook - Action Forex
GBP/JPY's rally resumed last week and surged to as high as 205.30, but retreated sharply since then. With 201.24 resistance turned support intact, initial bias remains neutral this week and further rally is still in favor. Break of 205.30 will target 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 199.96 from 197.47 at 207.11. However, firm break of 201.24 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 197.47 support instead.
Week Ahead – Markets May Grow Wary of US Shutdown and Lack of US Data - Action Forex
Following a Fed-dominated period, political risks have been monopolizing market attention. The US government shutdown and developments in both France and Japan have been fueling an atypical risk-off reaction, with the US dollar, gold and US equities surging. In particular, gold has been generating headlines with its continued rally, only to ease in the past two sessions on news of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.