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Elliott Wave View: Light Crude Oil (CL) 5 Swing Structure Favors Higher - Action Forex
Short Term Elliott Wave View in Light Crude Oil (CL) suggests the metal ended cycle from 1.16.2025 high. Decline from 1.16.2025 high unfolded as a 5 waves with wave ((i)) ended at 77.87 and wave ((ii)) ended at 79.44. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 72.38 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 75.18. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 70.12 which completed wave A in higher degree.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.2099 should target 1.2810 resistance. Firm break there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2923 next. On the downside, below 1.2562 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But another rise will remain in favor as long as 1.2331 support holds, in case of retreat.
Eyes on PMIs and the German Federal Election this Sunday - Action Forex
Over the weekend, the German federal election takes place. A key theme is how to revive the ailing economy, meaning the outcome could have substantial implications for future growth. The most likely result of the German election is a coalition between the conservative CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD) 'Grand Coalition' or the Greens 'Black-Green'. In both cases with CDU's Friedrich Merz as chancellor. We estimate a 50% probability of a reform of the 'debt brake', which could allow an increased structural deficit, potentially boosting GDP growth over the coming years significantly. In absence of a reform, similar fiscal stimulus would likely come from targeted off-budgets funds. For details, see Research Germany - Limited economic impact of German election, 6 February.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations above 149.26 temporary low. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 154.79 resistance holds. Fall from 158.86 is currently seen as the third leg of the pattern from 161.94 high. Break of 149.26 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 next.
Euro Briefly Dips on Soft PMI, CAD Shrugs Off Robust Retail Sales - Action Forex
Trading is rather subdued in the forex markets today, with most major pairs and crosses stuck within yesterday’s range. Loonie failed to react to significantly stronger-than-expected retail sales data. Euro dipped earlier following weak PMI reports, but selling pressure quickly fizzled out. Yen saw some volatility during the Asian session, initially weakening alongside Japanese bond yields after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments, but selling was short-lived.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Consolidations from 0.9200 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral. While deeper pull back might be seen, outlook will stay mildly bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.9223 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 1.0176 and intraday bias stays neutral. Stronger rebound might be seen but outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.
Monthly PMI Release May Spark Some Volatility Today - Action Forex
The monthly PMI release may spark some volatility today. The January edition for the first time since August of last year suggested the European economy eked out a bit of growth with the composite indicator venturing north of 50. Consensus expects this (painstakingly slow) bottoming out process to continue in February.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
GBP/USD's rally from 1.2099 extended higher and intraday bias is now on the upside for 1.2810 resistance. Firm break there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2923 next. On the downside, below 1.2562 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But another rise will remain in favor as long as 1.2331 support holds, in case of retreat.
AUD/USD Daily Report - Action Forex
Immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413 as rebound from 0.6087 resumed through 0.6373. Strong resistance is expected from 0.6413 to complete the corrective rise. Break of 0.6327 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6087 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6413, will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 0.6615, even just still as a correction.
Canada: Retail Sales Jump in December, With Real Activity Reporting Its Strongest Month Since Mid-2022 - Action Forex
Retail activity ended the year with a bang. Given the dampening effect of the GST/HST tax break on nominal figures, real sales provide a better measure of consumer activity, pointing to a swift rebound in spending behaviour. As a result, we expect consumption growth for Q4 2024 to reach around 4% (annualized), pushing GDP growth above trend.
Crypto Market Completes Initial Rebound, Nearing Key Resistance - Action Forex
The cryptocurrency market has added 1.3% in the last 24 hours to $3.24, approaching the upper boundary of the consolidation range after the collapse in early February. Only the ability to rise above $3.3 trillion would signal an exit from consolidation and be a prologue for a return to the $3.50 area or a move to all-time highs near $3.70.
Sunset Market Commentary - Action Forex
The European February composite PMI released today matched January’s 50.2 reading. That’s suggestive of near negligible output growth. Services was still the main driver but expanded at a slower pace (50.7 from 51.3). The 23-month long downturn in manufacturing eased slightly (47.3 from 46.6). France was to blame for the marginally weaker-than-expected outcome with a marked reduction in (services) business activity.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery. Some consolidations might be seen, but outlook will stay bearish as long as 154.79 resistance holds. Fall from 158.86 is currently seen as the third leg of the pattern from 161.94 high. Break of 149.26 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 next.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 0.9200 and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper pull back might be seen, outlook will stay mildly bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.9223 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.
US PMI services slumps into contraction, growth outlook dims - Action Forex
US Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 51.6, an eight-month high. However, Services PMI dropped sharply from 52.9 to 49.7, marking a 25-month low. As a result, Composite PMI fell from 52.7 to 50.4, its lowest level in 17 months, signaling a broad slowdown in overall business activity.
ECB-Fed Divergence May Limit EUR/USD Gains Above 1.0500 - Action Forex
The US dollar is giving back gains despite the tariff talk, rate cuts in Australia and New Zealand and despite the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes that hinted that the Fed officials are inclined to keep the rates unchanged until they see ‘further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments’. The dollar index tested the 100-DMA yesterday and is consolidating near that level this morning. The major support to the September to January rebound – or say the Trump rebound – is seen near the 106 level. A move below this level could mark the end of the kneejerk Trump rally in the US dollar and send the greenback into the medium-term bearish consolidation zone and let the major peers regain some ground despite dovish expectations there.
Canada's retail sales surge in 2.5% mom Dec, but Jan set for pullback - Action Forex
Canada’s retail sales jumped 2.5% mom to CAD 69.6B in December, far surpassing market expectations of 1.6% mom. Sales increased across all nine subsectors, with the strongest contributions from food and beverage retailers and motor vehicle and parts dealers.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook - Action Forex
Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged despite today's mild dip. Consolidation from 1.0176 is still extending and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger rebound might be seen but outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Current price actions in EUR/USD are seen as part of the consolidation pattern from 1.0176. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Stronger rebound might be seen but outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the downside as fall from 161.17 accelerates lower. Break of 155.72 support will be a strong sign that whole fall from 175.41 is resuming. Retest of 154.40 support should be seen next and firm break there should confirm. Nevertheless, on the upside, above 158.35 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first, and probably extend the corrective pattern from 154.40 further.
USD/JPY Losses Accelerating to 150 as Investors Brace for Tomorrow’s Japanese Inflation Figures - Action Forex
USD/JPY eased to 151.5 with losses technically accelerating this morning to 150 as investors brace for tomorrow’s Japanese inflation figures. Comments by BoJ governor Ueda – didn’t discuss rising yields at regular meeting with PM Ishiba – are interpreted as a thumbs up to more rate hikes. UK inflation figures yesterday helped push up gilt yields several basis points even though BoE governor Bailey flagged the CPI quickening a day in advance. EUR/GBP treaded water around 0.828.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as range trading continues below 0.9516. On the downside, break of 0.9359 support will revive the case that choppy rise from 0.9204 is merely a correction and has completed. Deeper fall should then be seen back to retest 0.9204 low. However, firm break of 0.9516 and sustained trading above 0.9481 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implication and extend the rise from 0.9204.
Fed’s Jefferson: No rush to cut rates as economy remains strong - Action Forex
Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said in a speech overnight that the central bank can “take our time” in assessing economic data before making any changes. With the U.S. economy performing well and the labor market remaining solid, Jefferson indicated that there is no immediate urgency to ease policy further.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is now mildly on the downside as fall from 193.04 accelerates lower. Break of 187.04 support will extend the fall from 19979 towards 180.00 support. On the upside, above 190.64 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first, and probably extend the corrective pattern from 180.00 further.
RBA’s Hauser: Rate cut justified, but inflation fight not a done deal - Action Forex
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser explained the 25bps rate cut to 4.10% earlier this week, highlighting that the decision was influenced by an “alternative version” of the inflation forecast. Under a scenario where rates remained unchanged, inflation would have undershot inflation target midpoint, albeit slightly. This factor played a key role in the board’s decision to ease policy.
Consumer Confidence to Shed Light on European Economic Outlook - Action Forex
In the euro area, consumer confidence data for February is set to be released and will be of high interest. After a continuous upward trend over the past two years, consumer confidence has declined in recent months. Given that private consumption is anticipated to be the main growth driver this year, consumer sentiment will be important for the economic outlook.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook - Action Forex
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.8472 is in progress for retesting 0.8221 low. On the upside, above 0.8308 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.8376 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
USD/CAD is staying in consolidations above 1.4150 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.4378 resistance holds. Fall from 1.4791 is correcting whole rise from 1.3418. Break of 1.4150 will target 1.3946 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.3942).
Australia’s employment grows 44k in Jan, outpacing population growth rate - Action Forex
Australia’s employment surged by 44k in January, more than double the expected 20k gain. The increase was driven by a 54.1k rise in full-time jobs, while part-time employment declined by -10.1k. However, the number of unemployed people also grew by 23k.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook - Action Forex
EUR/AUD's break of 1.6391 support invalidated the original view. Corrective pattern from 1.6800 is still in progress and extending. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6283. On the upside, though, break of 1.6518 resistance will bring stronger rebound back to 1.6631.