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Economics brain food — Alpha Sources.CV
Glenn Loury is preparing to host a conference at the Hoover Institute , honouring the life and works of Thomal Sowell . To that end, he is hosting a number of conversations on his podcast. The first one with Emily Skarbek , associate economics professor at Brown University, and the second
Global Leading Indicators, August 2025 - Who's afraid of payrolls anyway? — Alpha Sources.CV
Global leading indicators remained robust heading into autumn, despite softening compared to levels at the start of the year. Uncertainty always lurks in financial markets, and currently, (at least) three major questions are weighing on investors—threatening the ongoing optimism in the global econom
Equity sector rotation chartbook Aug 2025 - Order is restored, for now — Alpha Sources.CV
As I wait for the September update of the OECD leading indicators —producing data for July and August—I thought I’d introduce another chartbook I've been working on, this time focused on equity sectors. It replicates a variation of a Bloomberg function I used to rely on when I had access to a termi
Distract, Survive and Plan - How the World is Responding to Trump — Alpha Sources.CV
Dani Rodrik is disappointed with the way the world is responding to Mr. Trump’s wrecking-ball foreign and economic policy. Professor Rodrik opens with the argument that Trump’s policies are “misguided, erratic, and self-defeating,” lamenting that the rest of the world is only feebly resisting—faili
A question of time — Alpha Sources.CV
I’ve been thinking about time recently. In economics and finance, time is central to our analysis. Most of the information we care about, after all, is spread and dispersed across time. As a result, the way we embed our models with information, and how we sort and organize that information, is often
Things to think about #13 - Is AI plateauing? and Monetising US hegemony — Alpha Sources.CV
Adam Butler , head of ReSolve Asset Management , makes an interesting observation on AI in the wake of the publicised roll-out of ChatGPT 5. In effect, he argues that the AI cycle is over, for now. The problem isn’t that the models stopped improving. It’s that the improvements we need are mea
AS Global Debt Chartbook, Q4-2024 - How long is a piece of string? — Alpha Sources.CV
I’ve been sitting on this project for a while, but I’m finally ready to bring it above the fold. I’ve long wanted a straightforward overview of global debt levels—both public and private—and an easy way to compare them across countries, alongside their respective external dynamics. This is essential
Global Leading Indicators, June 2025 - What Tariffs? — Alpha Sources.CV
The June 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here . Additional details on the methodology are available here . Global leading indicators improved further at the end of Q2, as markets and decision-makers in the real economy concluded that Mr. Trump’s tariff threats are more bar
AI and the evolution of Software — Alpha Sources.CV
The conversation around AI has settled into a predictable cycle: the announcement of a reality-altering feature from a new model, followed by a scientific study reminding us that AI is neither truly intelligent nor capable of reasoning , and may, in fact, be making us dumber . I should be upfront:
Things to think about #12 - Oxygen and Abundance — Alpha Sources.CV
I was pool side at the start of the month which means, in my case, the time to run through one of the larger audiobooks in my Audible library in large uninterrupted chunks while sipping a cold drink. My choice on this occasion was Nick Lane’s Oxygen: The Molecule that made the World . The book trav
Global Leading Indicators, May 2025 - Stabilising? — Alpha Sources.CV
Global leading indicators were stabilizing midway through Q2, exposing the tension between macroeconomic forecasts—many of which still anticipate a significant slowdown in the second half of the year—and incoming data and market signals that suggest the trade wars, or at least the most deleterious e
Freeze the eggs! — Alpha Sources.CV
Global birth rates are falling at an accelerated pace. According to the UN, the global total fertility rate (TFR) dropped to a record low of 2.25 in 2023 and is projected to fall further to 2.2 in 2024. At this pace, the TFR is set to dip below the replacement level of 2.1 nearly two decades earlier
Global Leading Indicators, April 2025 - Hanging on — Alpha Sources.CV
The April 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here . Additional details on the methodology are available here . Global leading indicators were hanging on for dear life in April strained by the shock of President Trump’s tariff measures. A rebound from current levels that keep
A Millennial's Manifesto — Alpha Sources.CV
Millennials, according to the internet, are people born between 1981 and 1996. That's a bit of a gap, so it will be useful to narrow down the definition of our protagonist somewhat. This is a story about a relatively old Millennial, born in 1984. It is not at all inconceivable that this person will
Things to think about #10 - Ukraine, the Endgame, and Coding with AI — Alpha Sources.CV
Glenn Loury and John McWhorter are at their best when they disagree, and I enjoyed their discussion about the disastrous exchange between Trump, Vance, and Zelensky at the White House. Both agree that the U.S. is right to push for a negotiated settlement, which involves pressuring Ukraine to ack
Things to think about #11 -Black Monday, Old God's Time and The Point Magazine on Feminism — Alpha Sources.CV
I was out for a run this weekend with a friend who also works in the financial industry. As we sat down afterward over a cup of tea, our conversation turned—unsurprisingly—to the risk of a Black Monday tomorrow. This, in case you’re wondering, is how investors are spending their weekend: nervously l
Audio Essay: The Demographic Transition — Alpha Sources.CV
My second audio essay is now up. You can listen and download the file directly here , or alternatively subscribe to ‘Alpha Source Audio Essay’ Apple Podcast channel where my future audio essays will also be published. The link to the episode on Apple podcasts is here . You can find and downloa
The fertility wars — Alpha Sources.CV
The political flurry in the US over the virtues of parenthood and a high birth rate is part of a much larger cultural moment in which the debate on the significance of falling global fertility is pitting two increasingly militant and unyielding sides against each other. We have trade wars , cu
The tragedy of Trump v Zelensky — Alpha Sources.CV
Last week, I questioned how seriously we should take the initial direction of Mr. Trump’s attempt to end the war in Ukraine—an approach that involves openly conceding to Russia’s demand for territorial annexation and a binding commitment to block Ukraine from NATO membership. This was followed by
Things to think about #6 - An Irish murder mystery, global fertility and the Armas Substack — Alpha Sources.CV
I’ve recently spent ten days on the lovely Adriatic coast on Croatia. It is the second time I have holidayed in the country, and I wasn’t disappointed. Its inviting coastline—especially between Split and Dubrovnik—is as good a retreat for sun and relaxation as anywhere in southern Europe’s other mor
Trying to make sense of the senseless — Alpha Sources.CV
Noah Smith , an American columnist and Substacker, and historian Niall Ferguson both made the mistake last week of attempting to rationalise the Trump administration’s fumbling attempts to get Ukrainian peace talks underway. Niall Ferguson appears to be making a completely reasonable point—o
Falling global fertility, how far and how fast? — Alpha Sources.CV
It has been a while since I last delved into one of my favorite topics: global demographics. In this piece, I revisit the subject by examining high-level data on key global demographic indicators from the UN’s July 2024 Population Prospects database . I will begin with birth rates. Scarcely a da
The Fertility Wars (Audio essay) — Alpha Sources.CV
Some people like to read, some people like to listen, some people prefer to write, while some speak. I am a bit of a mix, and if you are too, it’s possible that you’d prefer to listen to some of the writing on Alpha Sources rather reading it on a screen. Up until recently, that wasn’t really possibl
Things to think about #8 - Mr. Trump, US imports from China and Cultural Wars — Alpha Sources.CV
At this point, you will have read numerous takes, predictions and analyses of what four more years of Mr. Trump in the White House means. I promise that I will make this short. I think Sam Harris’ “The Reckoning” offers a good explanation of what went wrong for the Democrats and the liberals. I al
Things to think about #7 - Glenn Loury, Life History Theory, LatAm fertility and Substack economics — Alpha Sources.CV
I am a big fan of US economist and academic Glenn Loury . He is smart, honest and well-articulated. He is also not afraid of an intellectual scrap if he stumbles upon one. He is an indispensable public commentator and intellectual whose ideas and influence go far beyond the confines of race, and as
Global Leading Indicators Feb 2025 - In the Pipe, for Now — Alpha Sources.CV
It’s been a while since I’ve been writing about markets and the economy. The reason, as I touched on earlier this month, is that I’ve been working on some scripts—with the help of my now trusty and indispensable ChatGPT+ subscription—to automate chart generation for the indicators and data I use and
A new feudalism? — Alpha Sources.CV
This blog post discusses and analyses the book "Techno Feudalism: What Killed Capitalism" by Yanis Varoufakis. It argues that the book provides an original perspective on modern capitalism and asks whether the economic activities of big tech and cloud capitalism are associated with negativ
Things to think about #9 - A Millennial's Manifesto (audio), Greenland, Neoliberalism, and Low-calorie information — Alpha Sources.CV
My “Millennial’s Manifesto” is up as an audio essay on Apple Podcast. Go have a listen! Also consider subscribing to the podcast channel. The cadence of these audio essays is slow, one essay every one or two months, so you won’t be overwhelmed by content. I know many people prefer to listen to t
Is global inflation (re)accelerating? — Alpha Sources.CV
This is the question everyone wants an answer to after another week where bonds have been beaten to a pulp, a trend which is now starting to bleed into equities. More specifically, the real question is whether US inflation is accelerating? It is too soon to tell, and for the record, we don’t th
Global Leading Indicators, March 2025 - The world before tariffs, and after — Alpha Sources.CV
The March 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here . Additional details on the methodology are available here . I’ve added a few new elements: a chart showing the G20 LEI and its three-year rolling Z-score; a comparison between headline LEI diffusion and global equities; and a ch
What is Substack for? — Alpha Sources.CV
Thus asks The Point —another magazine that I think you should subscribe to—based on a recent exchange between Becca Rothfeld , herself a writer for the Point, and Sam Kahn , who is as far as I can see a prolific Substacker. You can find the initial flurry, on Substack, via by following the link a
Global Leading Indicators, March 2025 - The world before tariffs, and after — Alpha Sources.CV
The March 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here . Additional details on the methodology are available here . I’ve added a few new elements: a chart showing the G20 LEI and its three-year rolling Z-score; a comparison between headline LEI diffusion and global equities; and a ch
Things to think about #11 -Black Monday, Old God's Time and The Point Magazine on Feminism — Alpha Sources.CV
I was out for a run this weekend with a friend who also works in the financial industry. As we sat down afterward over a cup of tea, our conversation turned—unsurprisingly—to the risk of a Black Monday tomorrow. This, in case you’re wondering, is how investors are spending their weekend: nervously l
Global Leading Indicators Feb 2025 - In the Pipe, for Now — Alpha Sources.CV
It’s been a while since I’ve been writing about markets and the economy. The reason, as I touched on earlier this month, is that I’ve been working on some scripts—with the help of my now trusty and indispensable ChatGPT+ subscription—to automate chart generation for the indicators and data I use and
Things to think about #10 - Ukraine, the Endgame, and Coding with AI — Alpha Sources.CV
Glenn Loury and John McWhorter are at their best when they disagree, and I enjoyed their discussion about the disastrous exchange between Trump, Vance, and Zelensky at the White House. Both agree that the U.S. is right to push for a negotiated settlement, which involves pressuring Ukraine to ack
The tragedy of Trump v Zelensky — Alpha Sources.CV
Last week, I questioned how seriously we should take the initial direction of Mr. Trump’s attempt to end the war in Ukraine—an approach that involves openly conceding to Russia’s demand for territorial annexation and a binding commitment to block Ukraine from NATO membership. This was followed by
Trying to make sense of the senseless — Alpha Sources.CV
Noah Smith , an American columnist and Substacker, and historian Niall Ferguson both made the mistake last week of attempting to rationalise the Trump administration’s fumbling attempts to get Ukrainian peace talks underway. Niall Ferguson appears to be making a completely reasonable point—o
Falling global fertility, how far and how fast? — Alpha Sources.CV
It has been a while since I last delved into one of my favorite topics: global demographics. In this piece, I revisit the subject by examining high-level data on key global demographic indicators from the UN’s July 2024 Population Prospects database . I will begin with birth rates. Scarcely a da