To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve’s tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US employment market improves relative to expect…

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

Do inflation expectations even matter anymore? – Credit Writedowns

We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That’s above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Le…

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

What’s your model on how real GDP grows durably? – Credit Writedowns

Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the …

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents – Credit Writedowns

Happy June!! Listen, I want to start this month with a thought piece rather than a data piece. And this is going to be a pretty long post. But I think it’s important because I plan to build o…

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

ADP and claims data show US employment progress – Credit Writedowns

We got reads from two US jobs data series this morning. And both showed continued forward progress. To me, this speaks to the potential for tapering of the Fed’s large scale asset purchase pr…

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante – Credit Writedowns

Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation n…

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

Goodbye to Credit Writedowns – Credit Writedowns

Good morning everyone, I have some exciting — and also – sad news to tell you today. First, I am going to Bloomberg as a Senior Editor. And I am going to use that (much larger) pl…

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down – Credit Writedowns

As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a lot of theories as to why this is happening. I…

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news – Credit Writedowns

The US jobs report came in south of expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 559,000 in May but the unemployment falling to a pandemic low of 5.8% vs 6.1% in April. While the job gains we…

Credit Writedowns Pro

30.11.2022

How transitory is transitory, housing edition? – Credit Writedowns

In yesterday’s post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get – even if they’re just transitory – to matter? The Fed is telling you they have to g…

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Credit Writedowns Pro - Economy

Where were claims at this point in the last cycle? – Credit Writedowns

Do inflation expectations even matter anymore? – Credit Writedowns

What’s your model on how real GDP grows durably? – Credit Writedowns

The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents – Credit Writedowns

ADP and claims data show US employment progress – Credit Writedowns

The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante – Credit Writedowns

Goodbye to Credit Writedowns – Credit Writedowns

Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down – Credit Writedowns

US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news – Credit Writedowns

How transitory is transitory, housing edition? – Credit Writedowns

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