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David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog - Economy
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China’s December 2024 Central Economic Work Conference – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Xi delivers important speech at Central Economic Work Conference Dec 16, 2024 https://english.news.cn/20241216/c177f7a16e1a4149a6c29c86239ff0ee/c.html [My commentary.] “First, efforts should be made to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand on all fronts.” [This has been core policy for about 20 years.] “… Work should be done to appropriately raise the basic pensions for…
American’s were not voting their pocket books this year. – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
In August, in September, and in October this year, real pay for manufacturing workers (excluding managers and supervisors) rose more than 3% year-on-year. That’s the first three-month, 3% + rise in more than 15 years, dating back to the deflationary days of 2009. Excluding the real pay-boosting effects of deflation, the previous point in history…
America – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
My thinking on the 2024 election is a work in progress. 1. American politics has become a game of who can lie the loudest and most consistently. 2. Foreign interference is now a normal part of American politics. 3. “It’s the economy, stupid,” died this year. Good, strong growth and employment numbers right through the…
The Party of Growth – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Dr Brad DeLong, UC Berkeley economics professor: Sam Williamson has revised his data piece on relative American economic performance as measured by real income growth during the different 20th and 21st century presidencies: Williamson, Samuel H. 2024. "The Relative Performance of the Economy under the Presidents of the United States from 1900 to 2023." MeasuringWorth.…
Japan’s New PM – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Japan will have a new Prime Minister on October 1st, after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected 67 year-old Ishiba Shigeru as its new leader. He succeeds Kishida Fumio who announced in August that he would step down. Mr Ishiba defeated hawkish security minister Madam Takaichi Sanae; a former prime minister’s son, the reform-minded Koizumi…
GOPers are bad for your fiscal health. – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan fiscal referee, presents consistent, comparable budget data back to 1962. Their data show that GOPer administrations increase spending by an annual average 9.1% as compared to the immediately preceding administration, whereas Democrats increase spending by 3.1%. Who's more fiscally responsible? Who pays the bills? On the spending side, GOPers…
China’s Imaginary Trade Data – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
from Follow the Money and Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Brad Setser is one of the best analysts of China’s economy China has a new way of calculating its good surplus in its formal balance of payments data. It is a deeply misleading. It also explains the apparent fall in the current account account surplus…
Kamala Harris – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The most important thing about Kamala Harris, head and shoulders above all else, is that she will defend the Constitution against all enemies, domestic and foreign. In other words, she is not Donald Trump. Kamala Harris, at 60 years of age, has more experience than the GOP ticket. US Vice President, four years. US Senator,…
Project 2025 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Here’s some highlights of the radical extreme GOPer agenda. Dept of Agriculture: End food stamps. Focus on farmers, not food sector workers or the environment. Dept of Education: “Protect civil rights” by “rejecting gender ideology and critical race theory.” Dept of Energy: Repeal investment in renewable energy; develop new nuclear weapons. E.P.A.: Eliminate the offices…
What works, and what doesn’t. – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov) just released its annual trade revisions. What struck me was the redirection over the past 25 years, rather than the change of pace. In 1999, America imported 7.9% of all merchandise from China, and 12.7% from Japan. Last year, the figures were 13.8% and 4.8%. Add Hong Kong to…
CCP (finally) Announces 3rd Plenum – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s 3rd Plenum (meeting) traditionally has been held at the end of the year (or very early in the next year) following the National Party Congress, and focuses on the economy. Last Autumn, Xi Jinping decided otherwise, and set Sinologists on a quest to understand why.The Central Committee typically holds seven…
Another PLA Reorganization – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Xi Jinping is once again shaking up China’s armed forces, which suggests that at least in the near term there will be a greater degree of caution in dealing with international affairs. No one wants to fight with an untested order of battle. The PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) was established in 2015 with responsibility…
US Q-1 ’24 Labor Market Strong – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The American labor market remained very strong in the first quarter with job growth of 1.7% in January-March (over the same 2023 period) and a labor force rise at a similar pace. Non-Farm Payroll numbers were up 2.3% in the first semester and 1.9% in March. The unemployment rate averaged 3.8% in the first three…
PRC Law And The Demise of Hong Kong In 2024 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Publication: China Brief Volume: 24 Issue: 3 By: Arran Hope, Feb 2, 2024 Executive Summary New National Security legislation, which emulates recent PRC laws, and the potential torture of a witness in the ongoing trial of Jimmy Lai, is characteristic of the erosion of legal norms in Hong Kong as it moves towards full unification…
The 2024 US Economy – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The American economy grew 2.5% in 2023, well above the previous year’s 2.0% and even with the 2019 and 2017 numbers. 2023 was also a tenth of a point above the pre-covid 10 year average. Private consumption led the charge (+2.2%),spearheaded by higher volumes of durable goods purchases. Capital investment, however, was a drag on…
DPP’s Lai wins Taiwan Presidency – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Lai Ching-te of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won Saturday's presidential election with an estimated 40% of the vote, topping the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, KMT)’s Hou Yu-ih (33.5%) and the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je (26.5%). The win gives the DPP an unprecedented third consecutive term in office. The vote was largely split between…
2023 Labor Wrap Up – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The American labor force grew 1.7% in 2023, more than three times as fast as the overall population (+0.5%) and well above the body of people over the age of 19 and not incarcerated or otherwise incapable of work (+1.1%). The 2.83 million additional workers dwarfs the 138,300 rise in people not in the workforce,…
Mr Xi Cleans House – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
In late December, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC; the highest legislative body) dismissed from its ranks nine senior military officers. They are largely related to the on-going purge of the Rocket Force (previously known as the Second Artillery Corps) and Equipment Development Department (the old General Armaments Department), but also include the commander of the…
CBO on US Economy to 2025 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The Congressional Budget Office periodically updates its economic forecast to ensure that its projections reflect recent economic developments and current law. CBO will publish its budget and economic projections for 2024 to 2034 early next year in its annual Budget and Economic Outlook. This report provides details about CBO’s most recent projections of the economy through…
US Q-3, at first glance – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
In 2023’s third quarter, US GDP grew at its fastest pace, year-on-year, since Q1 2022. The 2.9% pace was half a point faster than in the second quarter, and when measured quarter-to-quarter on an annualized basis, the +4.9% pace was the best since the COVID bounce-back.The domestic guns were all firing in this first look…
China to Q-3 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
China’s statistical authorities announced that the economy grew 4.9% YoY in the third quarter, down from 6.3% in Q-1 and 4.5% in the first period of the year. In an indication of data reliability, inflation has averaged just 0.4% YoY this year whereas the money supply (M2) rose 11.6%. The renminbi has fallen 6.1% against…
The US Budget – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The federal budget deficit was $1.7 trillion in fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$0.3 trillion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2022. Revenues fell by an estimated $455 billion (or 9 percent). Revenues were smaller than in fiscal year 2022, particularly for nonwitheld income taxes and remittances to the Treasury from…
Will the Fed Pause? – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Probably yes. We face what is likely a pause in Fed interest rate hikes, as the state of the economy is looking pretty good. The unemployment rate has been 4% or less throughout 2023. Inflation (CPI) has been below 5% for six straight months. The current account balance has improved for six straight quarters, and…
US Trade, First Half 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
US trade dropped in the first half of the year, as compared to January-June 2022. Exports were down 0.8%, and imports by 6.3%. As a result, the deficit was 15% smaller than a year earlier. Sales to Asia dropped 3.8%, while those to the EU rose 7.9% and exports to NAFTA were flat, rising just…
US Labor Market Notes – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Job openings declined 13.7% in the first half of the year, as compared to January-June 2022. The drop follows a 3.4% fall in the second half of last year, after the very strong 2021/22 bounce-back from the worst of the COVID recession. Hiring was down 6.7% (vs. 5.1% in July-December 2022). Quits fell 10.4% (-3.7%)…
The US Economy in Q-2 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The US economy grew 2.6% (year-on-year) in the second quarter, the fastest pace since the start of 2022. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was 4.1% and unemployment 3.5%. That dropped the “misery index” (inflation plus unemployment) to 7.6%, the lowest since before the pandemic. While private consumption (+2.3%) – the overwhelmingly largest…
China: Two key appointments – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
BEIJING, July 25 (Xinhua) -- China's top legislature voted to appoint Wang Yi as foreign minister and Pan Gongsheng as central bank governor, as it convened a session on Tuesday.Nothing terribly unusual about that. However, …BEIJING, July 25 (Xinhua) -- Pan Gongsheng, newly appointed governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), made a public…
First-half US labor data – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The US unemployment rate remained in the 3.4-3.7% range for the 16th month in a row in June, coming in at 3.57%. The labor force grew by 1.5% in January-June, as compared to the same 2022 period, and employment by 1.8%. The number of unemployed people fell 4%. Given that inflation in May (the latest…
The 2023 (US) Long-Term Budget Outlook – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Each year, the Congressional Budget Office publishes a report presenting its projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like over the next 30 years if current laws generally remained unchanged. The long-term budget projections typically follow CBO’s 10-year baseline budget projections and then extend most of the concepts underlying them for…
Taiwan 2024 Presidential Nominees – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
DPP nominee William Lai Ching-te, the 64 year-old Vice President, is a former Premier (2017-19), Tainan mayor (2010-17), DPP legislator (1999-2010), and National Assemblyman (1996-99). He resigned as President of the Executive Yuan (premier) after 16 months following severe setbacks in local elections. He then challenged President Tsai Ing-wen for the party leadership, and lost.…
US Trade in Q-1 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The US merchandise trade balance improved by 20.3% in the first three months of the year, as compared to January-March 2022. Exports rose 6.6% to $514.9 billion while imports fell 4.4%, to $783.7 billion. The difference was -$268.8 billion on $1,298.7 billion in two-way trade (down 0.3%). Exports to the European Union rose 18.2% to…
The US Economy in Q-1 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Real GDP rose 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, as compared to the same 2022 period; it was up 1.1% from Oct-Dec on a quarter-to-quarter and seasonally adjusted basis. In the former measure, it is the 9th straight positive figure, and in the latter the third. Private consumption expenditure rose 2.3% YoY, again…
Q1 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
In the first quarter of 2023, the American labor force rose 1.4%, the number of unemployed fell 6.9%, and civilian employment rose 1.8%. The unemployment rate averaged 3.5% in January-March (U6 was 6.7%), vs. 3.8% (7.1%) a year earlier. As per a different survey, nonfarm payroll was up 3% on the year. Fed Funds –…
Lest We Forget – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The $147 billion financial institutions borrowed from the Fed in the week to the Ides of March is a clear signal that Something is Wrong. It isn't a record, not by a long shot, but it should be a clear reminder of the need for proper financial oversight.For 20 scary weeks, from September 2008 through…
Xi Jinping’s 3rd Term – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The Party, effective October 2022Politburo Standing Committee: Xi Jinping, Li Qiang (Premier), Zhao Leji (National People's Congress Chair), Wang Huning (Chinese People's Political Consultative Committee Chair), Cai Qi (Central Committee Secretariat 1st Secretary), Ding Xuexiang (Executive Vice Premier), Li Xi (Discipline Inspection Commission Secretary)Politburo: Ding Xuexiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Xingrui, Wang Yi, Wang Huning, Yin…
Should we worry about China’s debt? – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
China's Balance Sheet Challenge, Nicholas Borst, China Leadership Monitor, March 1, 2023 prcleader.org and worldbank.org We begin with three statements: 1. China is now much more indebted than countries at similar levels of economic development. 2. The slowdown in the economy over the past year has increased pressure on over-leveraged borrowers, and 3. That poses…
US Trade in 2022 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Total two-way trade between the United States and the world totaled $5.3 trillion in 2022, up 15.8% over 2021. Exports were $2.065 trillion (+17.7%) and imports $3.247 trillion (+14.7%). The balance was -$1.182 trillion, 9.8% larger than the previous year. On the export side, fully one-third went to NAFTA (+16.5%), 29% to Asia (+8.9%), and…
The US Economy v.2022 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The US economy grew 2.1% in 2022, down from 5.9% in 2021 and -2.8% in 2020. Private consumption (+2.8%), capital investment (+3.8%), and trade all grew faster than the overall economy, which is possible because imports out paced exports +8.1% to +7.2%. Only government spending fell short, at -0.6%. In seasonally adjusted and annualized terms,…
US Inflation drivers – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
US urban inflation eased to 6.4% in December, lower than it has been since October 2021. That puts real interest rates at their highest – albeit still negative – level in 22 months. The inflation-adjusted federal funds rate was -2.32%, up from -7% a year ago. The bank prime rate turned positive for the first…