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David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog - Economy
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CCP (finally) Announces 3rd Plenum – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s 3rd Plenum (meeting) traditionally has been held at the end of the year (or very early in the next year) following the National Party Congress, and focuses on the economy. Last Autumn, Xi Jinping decided otherwise, and set Sinologists on a quest to understand why.The Central Committee typically holds seven…
Another PLA Reorganization – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Xi Jinping is once again shaking up China’s armed forces, which suggests that at least in the near term there will be a greater degree of caution in dealing with international affairs. No one wants to fight with an untested order of battle. The PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) was established in 2015 with responsibility…
US Q-1 ’24 Labor Market Strong – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The American labor market remained very strong in the first quarter with job growth of 1.7% in January-March (over the same 2023 period) and a labor force rise at a similar pace. Non-Farm Payroll numbers were up 2.3% in the first semester and 1.9% in March. The unemployment rate averaged 3.8% in the first three…
PRC Law And The Demise of Hong Kong In 2024 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Publication: China Brief Volume: 24 Issue: 3 By: Arran Hope, Feb 2, 2024 Executive Summary New National Security legislation, which emulates recent PRC laws, and the potential torture of a witness in the ongoing trial of Jimmy Lai, is characteristic of the erosion of legal norms in Hong Kong as it moves towards full unification…
The 2024 US Economy – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The American economy grew 2.5% in 2023, well above the previous year’s 2.0% and even with the 2019 and 2017 numbers. 2023 was also a tenth of a point above the pre-covid 10 year average. Private consumption led the charge (+2.2%),spearheaded by higher volumes of durable goods purchases. Capital investment, however, was a drag on…
DPP’s Lai wins Taiwan Presidency – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Lai Ching-te of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won Saturday's presidential election with an estimated 40% of the vote, topping the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, KMT)’s Hou Yu-ih (33.5%) and the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je (26.5%). The win gives the DPP an unprecedented third consecutive term in office. The vote was largely split between…
2023 Labor Wrap Up – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The American labor force grew 1.7% in 2023, more than three times as fast as the overall population (+0.5%) and well above the body of people over the age of 19 and not incarcerated or otherwise incapable of work (+1.1%). The 2.83 million additional workers dwarfs the 138,300 rise in people not in the workforce,…
Mr Xi Cleans House – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
In late December, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC; the highest legislative body) dismissed from its ranks nine senior military officers. They are largely related to the on-going purge of the Rocket Force (previously known as the Second Artillery Corps) and Equipment Development Department (the old General Armaments Department), but also include the commander of the…
CBO on US Economy to 2025 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The Congressional Budget Office periodically updates its economic forecast to ensure that its projections reflect recent economic developments and current law. CBO will publish its budget and economic projections for 2024 to 2034 early next year in its annual Budget and Economic Outlook. This report provides details about CBO’s most recent projections of the economy through…
US Q-3, at first glance – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
In 2023’s third quarter, US GDP grew at its fastest pace, year-on-year, since Q1 2022. The 2.9% pace was half a point faster than in the second quarter, and when measured quarter-to-quarter on an annualized basis, the +4.9% pace was the best since the COVID bounce-back.The domestic guns were all firing in this first look…
China to Q-3 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
China’s statistical authorities announced that the economy grew 4.9% YoY in the third quarter, down from 6.3% in Q-1 and 4.5% in the first period of the year. In an indication of data reliability, inflation has averaged just 0.4% YoY this year whereas the money supply (M2) rose 11.6%. The renminbi has fallen 6.1% against…
The US Budget – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The federal budget deficit was $1.7 trillion in fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$0.3 trillion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2022. Revenues fell by an estimated $455 billion (or 9 percent). Revenues were smaller than in fiscal year 2022, particularly for nonwitheld income taxes and remittances to the Treasury from…
Will the Fed Pause? – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Probably yes. We face what is likely a pause in Fed interest rate hikes, as the state of the economy is looking pretty good. The unemployment rate has been 4% or less throughout 2023. Inflation (CPI) has been below 5% for six straight months. The current account balance has improved for six straight quarters, and…
US Trade, First Half 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
US trade dropped in the first half of the year, as compared to January-June 2022. Exports were down 0.8%, and imports by 6.3%. As a result, the deficit was 15% smaller than a year earlier. Sales to Asia dropped 3.8%, while those to the EU rose 7.9% and exports to NAFTA were flat, rising just…
US Labor Market Notes – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Job openings declined 13.7% in the first half of the year, as compared to January-June 2022. The drop follows a 3.4% fall in the second half of last year, after the very strong 2021/22 bounce-back from the worst of the COVID recession. Hiring was down 6.7% (vs. 5.1% in July-December 2022). Quits fell 10.4% (-3.7%)…
The US Economy in Q-2 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The US economy grew 2.6% (year-on-year) in the second quarter, the fastest pace since the start of 2022. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was 4.1% and unemployment 3.5%. That dropped the “misery index” (inflation plus unemployment) to 7.6%, the lowest since before the pandemic. While private consumption (+2.3%) – the overwhelmingly largest…
China: Two key appointments – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
BEIJING, July 25 (Xinhua) -- China's top legislature voted to appoint Wang Yi as foreign minister and Pan Gongsheng as central bank governor, as it convened a session on Tuesday.Nothing terribly unusual about that. However, …BEIJING, July 25 (Xinhua) -- Pan Gongsheng, newly appointed governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), made a public…
First-half US labor data – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The US unemployment rate remained in the 3.4-3.7% range for the 16th month in a row in June, coming in at 3.57%. The labor force grew by 1.5% in January-June, as compared to the same 2022 period, and employment by 1.8%. The number of unemployed people fell 4%. Given that inflation in May (the latest…
The 2023 (US) Long-Term Budget Outlook – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Each year, the Congressional Budget Office publishes a report presenting its projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like over the next 30 years if current laws generally remained unchanged. The long-term budget projections typically follow CBO’s 10-year baseline budget projections and then extend most of the concepts underlying them for…
Taiwan 2024 Presidential Nominees – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
DPP nominee William Lai Ching-te, the 64 year-old Vice President, is a former Premier (2017-19), Tainan mayor (2010-17), DPP legislator (1999-2010), and National Assemblyman (1996-99). He resigned as President of the Executive Yuan (premier) after 16 months following severe setbacks in local elections. He then challenged President Tsai Ing-wen for the party leadership, and lost.…
US Trade in Q-1 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The US merchandise trade balance improved by 20.3% in the first three months of the year, as compared to January-March 2022. Exports rose 6.6% to $514.9 billion while imports fell 4.4%, to $783.7 billion. The difference was -$268.8 billion on $1,298.7 billion in two-way trade (down 0.3%). Exports to the European Union rose 18.2% to…
The US Economy in Q-1 2023 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Real GDP rose 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, as compared to the same 2022 period; it was up 1.1% from Oct-Dec on a quarter-to-quarter and seasonally adjusted basis. In the former measure, it is the 9th straight positive figure, and in the latter the third. Private consumption expenditure rose 2.3% YoY, again…
Q1 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
In the first quarter of 2023, the American labor force rose 1.4%, the number of unemployed fell 6.9%, and civilian employment rose 1.8%. The unemployment rate averaged 3.5% in January-March (U6 was 6.7%), vs. 3.8% (7.1%) a year earlier. As per a different survey, nonfarm payroll was up 3% on the year. Fed Funds –…
Lest We Forget – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The $147 billion financial institutions borrowed from the Fed in the week to the Ides of March is a clear signal that Something is Wrong. It isn't a record, not by a long shot, but it should be a clear reminder of the need for proper financial oversight.For 20 scary weeks, from September 2008 through…
Xi Jinping’s 3rd Term – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The Party, effective October 2022Politburo Standing Committee: Xi Jinping, Li Qiang (Premier), Zhao Leji (National People's Congress Chair), Wang Huning (Chinese People's Political Consultative Committee Chair), Cai Qi (Central Committee Secretariat 1st Secretary), Ding Xuexiang (Executive Vice Premier), Li Xi (Discipline Inspection Commission Secretary)Politburo: Ding Xuexiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Xingrui, Wang Yi, Wang Huning, Yin…
Should we worry about China’s debt? – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
China's Balance Sheet Challenge, Nicholas Borst, China Leadership Monitor, March 1, 2023 prcleader.org and worldbank.org We begin with three statements: 1. China is now much more indebted than countries at similar levels of economic development. 2. The slowdown in the economy over the past year has increased pressure on over-leveraged borrowers, and 3. That poses…
US Trade in 2022 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Total two-way trade between the United States and the world totaled $5.3 trillion in 2022, up 15.8% over 2021. Exports were $2.065 trillion (+17.7%) and imports $3.247 trillion (+14.7%). The balance was -$1.182 trillion, 9.8% larger than the previous year. On the export side, fully one-third went to NAFTA (+16.5%), 29% to Asia (+8.9%), and…
The US Economy v.2022 – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The US economy grew 2.1% in 2022, down from 5.9% in 2021 and -2.8% in 2020. Private consumption (+2.8%), capital investment (+3.8%), and trade all grew faster than the overall economy, which is possible because imports out paced exports +8.1% to +7.2%. Only government spending fell short, at -0.6%. In seasonally adjusted and annualized terms,…
US Inflation drivers – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
US urban inflation eased to 6.4% in December, lower than it has been since October 2021. That puts real interest rates at their highest – albeit still negative – level in 22 months. The inflation-adjusted federal funds rate was -2.32%, up from -7% a year ago. The bank prime rate turned positive for the first…
Xi’s New Central Military Commission: A War Council for Taiwan? – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
By Joel Wuthnow Thursday, December 1, 2022 https://www.prcleader.org/wuthnow-december-2022 Review: The new MAC is more of a broad-based advisory body than a coherent joint task force focused on an objective (or several). There is no longer any air force representation, and the only admiral runs the political workshop (and spent the vast majority of his career…
Jiang Zemin (1926-2022) – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Former Chinese president, party boss and the second longest serving head of the armed forces, Jiang Zemin, died November 30, 2022, at the age of 96. Jiang joined the CCP in 1946, at the age of 20, and primarily worked as a party cadre and engineer in Shanghai factories. In 1956 he moved to Beijing…
The 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
The 205 members of the 20th Central Committee includes 11 women (5.4%), two of whom are from minority groups. The highest ranking woman in the party is Discipline Inspection Commission (DIC, the party's watchdog) Deputy Secretary Yu Hongqiu. Among her 130 colleagues on the DIC, just 9 (6.9%) are women. Among minorities, the two highest…
The 20th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party: What You Need to Know – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
For all your China watching needs … . Xi Jinping presides over preparatory meeting for 20th CPC National Congress https://english.news.cn/20221016/d8ecdff183424057bd62ea434f422f3a/c.html A total of 2,310 of the 2,379 elected and specially-invited delegates to the 20th CPC National Congress attended the meeting. What you need to know: Xi Jinping mentioned 3 times. (CPC Congress) Xinhua Headlines: CPC…
The Biden Administration’s 2023-32 Budget Proposal – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Back in May 2022, the CBO thought revenues over the next 10 years would be $1,715.4 billion lower, and spending $916.8 billion higher. Under this budget, the deficit over the next decade is expected to be $2.6 trillion smaller than previously forecast. Here's one for the fiscal conservatives to think about, from the Congressional Budget…
PRC Plans to Invade Taiwan – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with TaiwanNational Defense University Press, Washington DCBoth the U.S. and Chinese militaries are increasingly focused on a possible confrontation over Taiwan. China regards the island as an integral part of its territory and is building military capabilities to deter Taiwan independence and to compel Taiwan to accept…
CCP Leadership By Position – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
19th National Party Congresses Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) CCP Chair / PRC President / MAC Chair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Xi Jinping Premier . . . . . Li Keqiang Central Discipline Inspection Commission Secretary . . .…
Reading the Tea Leaves: – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Predictions for the Next Politburo Standing Committee The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s 20th National Party Congress will be held in the third week of October this year, and by all accounts General Secretary Xi Jinping, the “core” of the leadership, will bestow upon himself a third five-year term. No one since Mao Zedong himself has…
Currency Adjustments – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Here we go againThe Japanese yen is in free fall, touching ¥144:US$1 in early September for the first time since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98. The unit has lost 20% since January, shedding ground on a month-to-month basis in 18 of the past 21 months. It is down 28% from its recent, January 2021,…
What’s Xi Jinping Up To? – David O'Rear's East Asia Politics & Economics Blog
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is the most powerful Chinese politician since Chairman Mao Zedong. He assumed his formal offices in 2012 and 2013, but unlike his predecessors he isn't retiring after completing two five-year terms. The so-called Chairman of Everything1 is staying put. But, that's just one symptom of how Xi is different from other…