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How do 121 analysts see tariffs affecting the U.S. and global economies? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff announcements have thrown the world economic outlook into disarray. The IMF recently downgraded its outlook for global growth, as have other institutions in our panel, as we examined in a recent blog post. With this in mind, in mid-April we polled 121 of our panelists, including top
Daniel Noboa Re-elected in Ecuador – What's Next for the Economy? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Centre-right Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa secured a decisive re-election victory in the 13 April runoff vote, defeating leftist Revolución Ciudadana (RC) candidate Luisa González with 56% of the vote. The margin of victory significantly exceeded poll projections, signaling widespread public support for Noboa’s security-focused and market-oriented platform. Below is an analysis of
Trump’s tariffs: How are economists’ forecasts changing? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español U.S. tariffs reaching the highest level since 1930. The sharpest stock market crash since the pandemic. Government bond yields spiking and threatening a financial crisis. All in all, last week was not for the fragile-hearted. The U.S. has come perilously close to smashing the world trade order that it spent years constructing.
The Economic Outlook for CENAM in 2025: Trouble in Paradise? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español CENAM to outperform Latin America, again: Our Consensus is for Central America and the Caribbean (CENAM)’s economy to expand more quickly than Latin America’s for the 13th time in 14 years in 2025. Private spending and fixed investment are projected to grow more quickly in CENAM, buoyed by lower inflation and interest
The Art of Peace: The Economics of Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks - FocusEconomics
Over three years after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the economic landscape in both countries has transformed. With an end to the conflict finally in sight, we examine the potential outcomes of peace negotiations and their implications for Russia’s and Ukraine’s economic outlook. The Ukraine War Three Years In Recent economic data
What is India’s economic outlook for the coming years? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Region-beating GDP growth: Our Consensus is for India’s economic growth to top 6% annually for the remainder of this decade, putting the country among the fastest-growing economies in Asia—and the world. By 2028, India should be the world’s third-largest economy, behind the U.S. and China but ahead of Germany and Japan. That
FocusEconomics Awards Interview – Dennis Shen, Chair of the Macroeconomic Council (Scope Ratings) - FocusEconomics
Dennis Shen is the Chair of the Macroeconomic Council of Scope – the European credit rating agency. He is a strong and passionate believer in strengthening the precision of economic and financial judgment and forecasting – for anchoring better public-policy outcomes and supporting the greater efficiency of global financial markets. Dennis co-authored the DSSI+ debt-restructuring
Trump’s first month: What are the economic implications? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Tariff threat distorts global trade and investment: So far, the U.S. president’s bark has been worse than his bite. Since taking office in January he has threatened to implement blanket tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, impose reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world, threatened to penalize foreign nations that impose
USAID shutdown: What does it mean for the world? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español In January, President Trump signed an executive order to halt USAID operations for 90 days; it remains unclear whether the agency will resume work or face a permanent shutdown. Below is an analysis of the global economic and political impact. USAID in a nutshell USAID accounts for 40% of global foreign aid,
The economic outlook for Germany, the sick man of Europe - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Recent data reveals that growth eluded the German economy for the second consecutive year in 2024. However, these woes run deeper, as the economy has roughly stagnated since 2020. With the country gearing up for federal elections this February, all eyes are on potential policy changes—spoiler alert, they’re likely to be limited.
The global debt selloff: Our panelists revise up their bond yield forecasts - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Bond vigilantes smell blood In recent weeks, investors from London to New York have dumped government debt, driving 10-year government bond yields in the United Kingdom and the United States to their highest level since the 2007–2008 financial crisis, and those in France and Germany to the highest since the peak of
The EU-Mercosur trade deal: What does it mean for global trade and the economic outlook? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español In early December, the EU and Mercosur—a trading bloc whose members include Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay—reached a trade deal after 25 years of negotiations. With the two blocs making up over 700 million people and about 20% of the world’s GDP, the long-anticipated agreement has the potential to create one
Political turmoil in South Korea: What does it mean for the economic outlook? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español In early December, South Korea’s president Yoon Suk Yeol made a short-lived declaration of martial law, only to quickly rectify when Parliament voted against it. He now faces impeachment proceedings, and snap presidential elections are a possibility in 2025. Below is a look at the economic implications and our Consensus Forecasts. The
Trump 2.0: How our daily Consensus Forecasts are changing for the Fed, exchange rates and the world economy - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Our Daily Updates for our Consensus Forecasts have shifted since Trump was re-elected president on 5 November, with our panel of economists already altering its projections for the dollar, U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve decisions. The rest of the world economy has not been immune, with the outlook of those economies intertwined
What could Trump’s election victory mean for Latin America? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Tougher trade policy: Trump has floated the idea of a 10.0–20.0% baseline tariff on all imports. If realized, this would thump the more U.S.-dependent Latin American economies—particularly Mexico and Central America. In addition, Trump is likely to attempt to renegotiate the USMCA trade agreement when it comes up for review in 2026.
What's in Store for the Oil and Gas Markets in Q4? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Crude prices have whipsawed in recent months, rising and falling by over USD 10 per barrel in just a few weeks. In the gas market, trader activity has been similarly frenetic. In our latest insight piece, we ask our energy economist Matthew Cunningham about the latest trends blowing the oil- and gas-market
Stock markets took a tumble recently: Is there reason to be worried? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Stock market correction: From Wednesday 31 July to Monday 5 August, the S&P 500—the primary U.S. stock index—fell by around 6%. The selloff was driven by a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, which showed a slump in payroll gains and a rise in unemployment. This fed into other warnings signs such as rising
East & South Asia: Our analysts’ outlook for the emerging region - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Growth leaders: Our Consensus is for the South Asian economies of Bangladesh and India, plus Mongolia in East Asia, to be among the world’s fastest-growing economies over our forecast horizon to 2028, with expansions above 6% per annum. Favorable demographics, an expanding middle class, burgeoning manufacturing sectors, and—in the case of Mongolia—mining
What are Trump’s economic plans? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español Since Joe Biden bowed out of the presidential campaign in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris on 22 July, polls have shown a narrowing of the gap in voting intentions between Harris and Donald Trump. However, Trump still has a strong chance of clinching the presidency in the November elections. So what are
What is the long-term economic outlook for the BRICS? - FocusEconomics
Leer en Español In 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE joined the BRICS. As a result, the bloc now makes up nearly a third of the world’s GDP at market prices in USD. To dive deeper into the long-term outlook of the bloc as a whole and of each individual country, you can