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Stock market rebound over the last two weeks started after Trump decided to put some of the tariffs on a 90-day pause, and most recent annoucmenet talks with China have already begun. If some of the recent tariffs are also removed by China, this would be very positive for sentiment moving forward, as both countries seem to be working toward a deal that could benefit both sides.What's interesting is that the S&P 500 bottomed right at the trendline support connected from the 2022 lows, and this happened with extreme volume down there, while VIX and fear indicators also hit extreme levels. The market was heavily buying puts at that time, and usually when sentiment is at extremes, that’s when markets can reverse—so I’m not surprised to see this strong bounce holding for the last two weeks.
The US stock market turned sharply lower last week following weak US economic data. On Friday, the S&P 500 moved toward its channel support from January 12th, but since that channel was broken, along with the 6020 swing support, we now have important warning signals, suggesting a more complex correction is unfolding and that pause on stocks will be a bit longer. More weakness can follow after a relief rally.
Stocks haven’t made much progress since early December, and the S&P 500 is still consolidating. This was initially due to portfolio adjustments and profit-taking at the end of 2024. Now, we’re seeing limited upside as the Fed has decided to stay on hold with rates, and new risks related to tariffs and trade wars have emerged. From an Elliott wave perspective, this appears like a correction within uptrend.