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My submission to the National Electricity Market Review – John Quiggin
The purpose of this submission is to respond to the National Electricity Market Wholesale Market Settings Review Draft Report, released in August 2025. The purpose of this submission is to argue that the ad hoc interventions seen so far should be replaced by centralised long-term planning of investment in both generation and transmission. The National Electricity Market…
The crash of 2026: a fiction – John Quiggin
Looking at the facts, there’s no reasonable conclusion except that US democracy is done for. But rather than face facts, I’m turning to fiction. So, here’s a story about the collapse of Trumpism, crony capitalism and the AI/crypto bubble. Fiction is a relatively unfamilar mode of writing for me, so critique (on style and structure…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Stop the free ride: all motorists should pay their way, whatever vehicle they drive – John Quiggin
My latest in The Conversation \A new road charge is looming for electric vehicle drivers, amid reports Treasurer Jim Chalmers is accelerating the policy as part of a broader tax-reform push. At a forum in Sydney this week, state and federal Treasury officials are reportedly meeting with industry figures and others to progress design of the policy, ahead of…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
If something can’t go on forever, it will stop – John Quiggin
My latest in Inside Story The most striking observation in Dean Spears and Michael Geruso’s new book, After the Spike, is summed up by the cover illustration, which shows a world population rising rapidly to its current eight billion before declining to pre-modern levels and eventually to zero. As the authors observe, this is the inevitable…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Mitigating the productivity damage from Covid-19: the case for improved ventilation standards – John Quiggin
I wrote this for the Cleaner Air Collective, who used it as an input to their submission to the Productivity Roundtable Cleaner Air Submission here Given the purpose of the exercise, the discussion is framed in terms of productivity though many of the issues are broader Covid-19 is a serious economic problem for Australia, not…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
The Arguments for More (or Fewer) People – John Quiggin
The New York Times recently published a letter from me responding to a guest essay (op-ed) by Michael Geruso and Dean Spears, with whom I’ve been engaging on the question of pro-natalism. As a colleague who had such a letter published a few years ago observed, this will probably get more readers than any journal…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
A billion people would be plenty to sustain civilisation … – John Quiggin
… as long as they are healthy, well fed and well educated Much of the panic about falling birth rates can be dispelled once we realise that (barring catastrophe) there will almost certainly be more people alive in 2100 than there were in 2000. But what about the distant future? Dean Spears, co-author of After…
No more anti-wokism – John Quiggin
I can't be bothered engaging with people who use "woke" as a pejorative, or similar Trumpist rhetoric. I've therefore banned a couple of commentators (Jack Strocchi and Svante) who persisted in using it, despite warnings. There are plenty of other places where they can bloviate if they choose. Anyone offended by my decision on this…
Whatever happened to Romney Republicans? – John Quiggin
Have they changed, or just become their worst selves While Trump is unpopular with a majority of Americans, his support among Republicans remains solid. That’s despite blatant corruption, fascist policies and a failure to deliver any of the economic benefits he promised. Faced with this depressing fact, the standard New York Times response has been…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
The end of US democracy – John Quiggin
I’ve held off posting this in the hope of coming up with some kind of positive response, but I haven’t got one. When I wrote back in November 2024 that Trump’s dictatorship was a fait accompi there was still plenty of room for people to disagree. But (with the exception of an announced state of emergency) it’s turned…
Are pronatalists living on the same planet? – John Quiggin
Pro-natalism (the idea that people, or rather, women, should have more babies than they choose to do at present) has become an established orthodoxy,[1]. The central claim is that, unless something changes soon, human populations both global and national, are going to decline rapidly, with a lot of negative consequences. This is simply not true,…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Brissie to the Bay report – John Quiggin
Hi everyone My Brissie to the Bay cycle for MS Queensland, a huge success. Donations totalled $2595, which gave me the title of “Neuro Legend”. Thanks again to all the readers and friends who keep me going on events like this. I’ll never be competitive as a triathlete, but I’m still on top of my game…
Let’s become Neuro Legends – John Quiggin
Hi everyone I'm riding 130km on Sunday to raise money for the Brissie to the Bay cycle for MS Queensland, my longest running fundraising event. I reached my target of $2000, with a couple of days to spare. So of course, I’ve set my sights higher. The top level in the fundraising hierarchy is “Neuro…
US–Australia alliance wanes under Washington’s whims – John Quiggin
My latest in The East Asia Forum The May 2025 federal election campaign was characterised by a studious avoidance of the main issues facing Australia, most notably the country’s future relationships with the United States and China. Canberra should confront the quandaries redefining the US relationship, initiated by President Donald Trump’s second term. Washington’s radical…
Monday Message Board (on Wednesday) – John Quiggin
Sorry about the delay on this one, and absence of recent posts. I've been in a bit of a rush, getting ready for travel. Will hopefully return to normal service soon. Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits,…
Childcare is just the latest failure of Australia’s privatisation push. It’s time for an ideology overhaul – John Quiggin
My latest in The Guardian series of ABC 7.30 reports tells a familiar story of failure in human services. Inadequate staffing, dangerous incidents brushed under the carpet, ineffective regulation and, at the back of it all, for-profit businesses, either ASX-listed or financed by private equity. This time it’s childcare but the same problems have emerged in vocational education, aged care, prisons,…
David Littleproud cites nuclear energy disagreement as major factor in Coalition split – John Quiggin
Nationals’ leader David Littleproud has singled out nuclear energy as a key reason for his party’s spectacular split from the Liberals, as both parties seek to rebuild following the Coalition’s devastating election loss. Speaking to the media on Tuesday, Littleproud said: our party room has got to a position where we will not be re-entering a Coalition agreement…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Not so deep thoughts about Deep AI – John Quiggin
Back in 2022, after my first encounter with ChatGPT, I suggested that it was likely to wipe out large categories of “bullshit jobs”, but unlikely to create mass unemployment. In retrospect, that was probably an overestimate of the likely impact. But three years later, it seems as if an update might be appropriate. Source: Wikipedia In…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Let’s fix Easter: Why let the moon choose our holidays for us ? – John Quiggin
Having finished off the Easter eggs (or bunnies/bilbies) and Hot Cross Buns (though these are a year-round thing now), I ought to be turning attention back to what’s happening in the world. But that’s too depressing to look at, a view our aspiring leaders have endorsed by resolutely ignoring anything more geopolitical than the price…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
The point of no return – John Quiggin
Back in November, when I concluded that Trump’s dictatorship was a fait accompli lots of readers thought I was going over the top. In retrospect, and with one exception, I was hopelessly over-optimistic. I imagined a trajectory similar to Orban’s Hungary, with a gradual squeeze on political opposition and civil society, playing out over years…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Some good news on the climate transition – John Quiggin
Thanks to James Wimberley for prompting me to write this, and alerting me to the data on China's emissions Most of the news these days is bad, and that’s true of the climate. Even as climatic disasters worsen, the Trump regime is doing its best to dismantle US and global efforts to decarbonize our energy…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…
Breaking with the US will be painful for Australia in many ways – but it’s inevitable – John Quiggin
My latest in The Guardian Donald Trump’s announcement of a “Liberation Day”, involving the imposition of tariffs on almost every country in the world, is one of a series of measures which call for an urgent reorientation of Australia’s economic and foreign policy. It is, in effect, a commitment to remove the United States from…
Monday Message Board – John Quiggin
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I'm now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I'll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow…