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Why did we release lockdown too early? Perhaps because we started too late. | longandvariable
It has been much commented on that the UK entered its lockdown to combat covid19 too late. This had the consequence of allowing the virus to gain more of a foothold, generating an increasing flow of infections that quickly swamped our test and trace capacity at that point. That in turn had the effect of…
We need a new UK Centre for Epidemiology and Economics | longandvariable
The UK covid19 crisis kicked off with forecasts of the epidemic with and without mitigation measures like lockdowns. They were ultimately alarming enough to persuade the government to lockdown. The forecasts joined epidemiological insights with social science - evidence on the propensity of different groups to contact each other. But they did not tread further…
New piece in Prospect on vaccine nationalism | longandvariable
You can find it here. Anyone teaching international trade, game theory, time consistency, should find this period full of great - if tragic - teaching material. I just read this great thread by one of the researchers involved in the Oxford/AZ vaccine too, so read this. It is extraordinary how covid19 has affected not only…
Vouchers: with poor timing, perhaps the worst kind of counter-covid recession policy | longandvariable
I am crystallizing my concern about retail vouchers, part of Rishi Sunak's latest package [and recommended by others, including one of my affilliations/clients, Resolution Foundation], and mostly thanks to a Jason Furman tweet. Sunak has seen his challenge as wanting to target stimulus and support policies at the sectors hardest hit by the covid19 crisis. …
Make the BoE work for their oak panelled offices and get them to identify the missing stimulus needed | longandvariable
The Bank of England is, arguably, at the end of the road as far as currently agreed methods of monetary stimulus are concerned. Interest rates are at their effective floor - in the UK, as understood by the Monetary Policy Committee - 0.1 per cent. QE purchases of assets stand at £745bn. This is unlikely…
Should Mervyn recuse himself from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee enquiry on QE? | longandvariable
I just noticed that Mervyn King, former Bank of England Governor, has taken a place on the HoL Economic Affairs Committee, and is therefore due to take part hearing evidence in an enquiry on quantitative easing [QE]. This is a curious state of affairs. Lord King was head of the Bank when QE was instigated…
Terms of reference for a new Centre for Economics and Epidemiology | longandvariable
In a previous post [scroll down!], I called for the UK [and other countries] to set up new, local centres for Economics and Epidemiology. This is because the economic-epidemiological outlooks are impoverished by the two disciplines - at least at the point of making contact with policy and actual forecasts - are cleaved in two. …
Team transitory vs team permanent | longandvariable
Inflation has risen in the US, the UK, the Euro Area and elsewhere, as demand has increased following the opening up of the economy after pandemic-induced lockdowns, and supply chains have been disrupted. This has produced a debate amongst the economic commentariat about whether they are on 'team transitory' [the rise in inflation will be…
Has the window closed for a Centre for Econ and Epi? | longandvariable
A while back I argued that the government should set up an independent body charged immediately with producing integrated economic and epidemiological forecasts, analysis and virus/fiscal policy options. With the vaccine roll out proceeding at >400k shots per day, and the end of lockdown measures in sight, has the time for a body like this…
How a Brexit transition end and covid19 compound | longandvariable
Talking to a friend today he pointed out how the pandemic, and a potential disorderly Brexit, compound each other. The way for consumers and firms to get through a threatened interregnum in essential supplies, to ensure continuity of services and, in the case of the consumer, of life itself! is to stockpile. An unusually large…