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#2: “Stocks Can Underperform Bonds for a Long, Long Time” - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
If you asked the average investor to name the most iron rule of investing, they’d likely say: “Stocks outperform bonds.” And yes, over the long haul, that’s been true. Since 1900 US stocks have returned 9.9% and 10-year US government bonds about 4.4%, a mile-wide gap. But the key question most folks never ask is… […]
Chasing Buffett: Can You Get Berkshire Returns Without the Oracle? - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Some of you may have seen that I built a customGPT trained on all my blogs, papers, books, and podcasts. You can even go talk to it (me?) here: MEB AI Ask it a few questions, does it sound like me? Anyways, we asked it to help write the below piece…not bad! Chasing Buffett: Can […]
Want to Make the BIG Money? - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
If you ask most people who makes the big money, they’ll likely say athletes like Ronaldo or celebrities like Taylor Swift. Some might respond CEOs of giant companies like Apple’s Tim Cook. Hedge fund managers make more than both combined by an order of magnitude.
20 Things You May Not Know About Markets (or That Might Surprise You). #1 - Normal Stock Market Returns are Extreme - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
We’re starting a new series here that will eventually be a short paper, but thought we’d drip these articles out every week over the course of the summer….enjoy! #1 – Normal stock market returns are extreme Most investors understand that stocks return about 10% per year over time. However, many investors may not appreciate the […]
ETF Performance vs. Fees & Assets Under Management (AUM) - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
We did a fun little study comparing the average Morningstar Star Rating vs. fees on the funds. We examined all ETF companies with at least five rated funds, resulting in approximately 50 companies. What we found would make sense: the most expensive group of funds tended to be the worst performers. But once you get […]
How Long Can US Stocks Underperform Foreign Stocks? - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Imagine waiting almost FOUR DECADES for US stocks to outperform. Crazy right? That was 1952-1989. If you go back to the 1800s, foreign stocks outperformed the United States for 60 years at one point. What if the outperformance lasted year after year? Try to imagine five or six years in a row?! Could never happen, […]
Even The Best Stocks Have Nasty Drawdowns - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
If you held one of the best-performing mutual funds over the past 25 years, chances are it had a 60% drawdown. If you held one of the best-performing stocks over the past 40 years, chances are it had a 70% drawdown. Could you sit through it? Via Mauboussin
Searching for 100 Baggers... - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Everyone always assumes it’s tech stocks…take a look at this list of 100+ baggers and their industry: Beverages, land royalties, shoes, farm supplies, car parts, kitchenware, copper mines, credit scores, kidney dialysis, waste disposal, etc… via Bespoke
T-Bills and Chill - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Relative to T-bills, normal yields for US 10/30, and AGG should be up around 6%, corporate bonds 7%, and emerging and junk around 10%. What if that happens this year? (T-bill yields could also come down, or both, or neither of course…) Here’s our old white paper on T-Bills and Chill…sounds pretty good this year! […]
It's Dark... - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Really fun podcast today…hanging with Mrs. Faber! Go pick up a copy of her new book! https://amzn.to/43uyLoC Links! Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jacqueline-faber-a-journey-into-dark-academia-573/id1128955736?i=1000698241116… Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5aSrneG7DQW71vIUdxqvbv… YouTube: https://youtu.be/VNFenVADrTM ShowNotes: https://themebfabershow.com/episodes/12k4TdxxbKm…
Sector Adjusted Stock Valuations - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
People love to point out that the US has higher stock valuations but a larger high growth tech sector…does that matter? Via Goldman: The entire100+ page report we profiled on The Idea Farm is excellent…a few more charts at the end from Norbert at Taunus…
Japan's Growth - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Fun chart from Jeff Weniger “People are usually surprised when I show them how Japan has grown its dividends at a 6.9% annual clip over the last 20 years, outpacing the 6.7% growth pace of the S&P 500. Japan trades for 13.5x forward earnings, or a 37% discount to the S&P’s P/E of 21.3.”
No Juice - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
On the podcast with Research Affiliates’ Jim Masturzo, I said that the biggest head scratcher across the investing landscape for me is the fixed income space (the segment starts here). I really don’t get why people are investing in risky and volatile fixed income markets like corporate bonds and junk when they don’t provide much, […]
Funds That Pay You To Invest - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
What about an investment that pays you to invest? That sounds like something you’d see advertised on Instagram, right? Nope “Thirty-four ETFs earned a higher securities-lending return than their annual fee in 2024.” ETFs That Pay You to Invest
New Book Launch! - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Big news out of the Faber household…a new book drops today! Except this time, it’s not mine, and it’s much more fun to read! My wife’s debut novel is out today, and it would mean the world to me and her if you picked up a copy….let me know what you think! The Department by […]
My Conversation with Bank of America's Savita Subramanian - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Savita Subramanian came on the podcast last week and did not disappoint! Savita is the Head of US Equity Strategy and Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America and one of the most followed investment strategists on Wall Street. If you missed the episode, don’t worry—I’ve pulled out some highlights (and a couple of her epic […]
The #1 Stock in the World - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Did you know the most profitable stock in the world isn’t located in the United States? (I didn’t). Below we feature two research pieces featured in The Idea Farm, our free weekly email going out to over 100,000 investors worldwide! First up, a 100+ page market outlook from Goldman Sachs. Here’s the top 10 companies […]
Top Investment Quotes - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
The 15 most popular quotes of the day from 2024! “More fiction has been written in Excel than in Word.” – @morganhousel “Buybacks are divisive. They divide people who understand finance from those who don’t.” – Ken French “Never, ever tell anyone about your problems, 90% of the people really don’t care. The other […]
Episode #532: Hendrik Bessembinder - Do Stocks Outperform T-Bills? - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guest: Hendrik Bessembinder, a professor at Arizona State University. Recorded: 4/24/2024 | Run-Time: 43:38 Summary: In today’s episode, Meb and Hank discuss Hank’s research on long-term stock returns and wealth generation. They explore the concept of power laws in the stock market, where a small percentage of stocks generate significant returns, while the majority […]
What is the Best Performing Stock of All Time? - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
What’s the best performing stock of all time? We’re talking about a total percentage gain of 265,528,901%. $1,000 invested in this stock would be worth over $2.5 billion today. To answer this question, we turned to Hank Bessembinder, who authored the famous academic paper “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?“ 80 stocks […]
Episode #533: Eric Crittenden & Jason Buck Explain Why Best Investors Follow the Trends - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guests: Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Asset Management, and Jason Buck, CIO of Mutiny Funds. Recorded: 5/1/2024 | Run-Time: 01:16:52 Summary: In today’s episode, we talk about the sentiment around trend-following today. We discuss optimal diversifiers for trend-following, how the Herschel Walker trade relates to portfolio construction, and if investors are as diversified […]
Episode #530: Professor Kenneth French on Risk, Return, and Rationality - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guest: Kenneth French is the Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College. He is an expert on the behavior of security prices and investment strategies. Recorded: 4/10/2024 | Run-Time: 53:45 Summary: In today’s episode, Ken shares what topic he and Professor Fama disagree on. Then we get […]
What If You Owned No US Stocks? - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
“I view diversification not only as a survival strategy but as an aggressive strategy because the next windfall might come from a surprising place.” – Peter Bernstein What is the single most universally held belief in all of investing? Think about it for a minute. Our vote would be “Investors MUST own US stocks.” It […]
Podcast Update! - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Excited news to share… After almost 550 episodes, the podcast has its own website! You may have noticed we stopped posting podcast episodes here on the blog. Going forward, all episode show notes will be on the new website. Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or YouTube!
Episode #535: KraneShares' Brendan Ahern on China's Economic Landscape: Is It Still Investable? - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guests: Brendan Ahern is the Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares, which provides investors access to China, Climate, and other uncorrelated strategies. He also produces China Last Night, a daily note recapping important news out of China. Recorded: 5/22/2024 | Run-Time: 52:09 Summary: In today’s episode, Brendan delves into the current state of China’s […]
Episode #534: Michael Melissinos - Mastering the Art of Trend-Following - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guests: Michael Melissinos is the founder of Melissinos Trading, an investment firm that employs a systematic trend-following approach. Recorded: 5/15/2024 | Run-Time: 40:04 Summary: In today’s episode, Mike shares his journey into trend following and his approach to trading. He emphasizes the importance of removing biases and opinions when observing trends and executing […]
Shareholder Yield 2nd Edition! - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
We’ve (finally) updated our Shareholder Yield book with a 2nd edition! You can find more resources at www.shareholderyield.com Lots more data and resources and info….let me know what you think! Shareholder Yield: A Better Approach to Dividend Investing
Episode #531: GMO's Catherine LeGraw - Capitalizing on Global Asset Allocation in 2024 - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guest: Catherine LeGraw is a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation Team. Recorded: 4/17/2024 | Run-Time: 45:15 Summary: In today’s episode, Catherine explains why this is “the best relative asset allocation opportunity we’ve seen in 35 years,” and “we are building portfolios with some of the highest forecasted relative and absolute returns we’ve ever seen.” She […]
Episode #525: Grant Williams & Peter Atwater: The Market is 'Long Abstraction, Short Reality' - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guest: Grant Williams is the author of the newsletter Things That Make you Go Hmmm… and host of The Grant Williams Podcast. He was also a co-founder of Real Vision. Peter Atwater teaches confidence-driven decision-making at William and Mary and the University of Delaware, writes the Financial Insyghts newsletter, and is the author of […]
Episode #524: Tim Ranzetta, NGPF - Teaching America Personal Finance - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guest: Tim Ranzetta is the Founder of Next Gen Personal Finance, a non-profit organization to connect educators with free resources and equip students with the knowledge and skills to lead financially successful and fulfilling lives since 2014. Recorded: 1/17/2024 | Run-Time: 48:27 Summary: In today’s episode, Tim updates us on everything going on with Next […]
Episode #523: Whitney Baker on The Death of (Upside) American Exceptionalism - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Guest: Whitney Baker is the founder of Totem Macro, leveraging extensive prior buyside experience to create unique research insights for an exclusive client-base of some of the world’s preeminent investors. Previously, Whitney worked for Bridgewater Associates as Head of Emerging Markets and for Soros Fund Management, co-managing an internal allocation with a dual Global Macro […]