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10 years of Beti Bachao Beti Padhao: Moving beyond slogans | Mostly Economics
Of all the government programs nothing angers me more than all these so called programs on women and girls. All these programs which are aimed at improving the lives of women have a common theme: just throw money at the problem and behave all is well. But do nothing about the dignity and identity of women.…
Protecting the meaning and value of American citizenship | Mostly Economics
People living in foreign countries often cheer when citizenship in their home countries is questioned. They say citizenship should only be for so called citizens and forefathers born in the country. Of course many of these foreigners choose to forget their own status. But then times do change and there will come a time when…
Restoring names that honor American greatness | Mostly Economics
It is all so familiar. All these leaders that promise greatness to a nation and say how it will be a new country come up with beaten and stale ideas. One such stale idea is change names of cities and geographic locations. It could be a new name or an old ancient name. The idea…
Challenges in liability management of banks | Mostly Economics
Nice speech by Rajeshwar Rao of RBI. He discusses how much of thinking on banks was on assets side going bad. Since the global fianncial crisis the focus has shifted on liabilities side going bad: The core function of banking involves accepting deposits, which are usually short-term, and funding loans, which generally have longer maturities.…
Bundesbank leaves Twitter/X | Mostly Economics
Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has decided to leave Twitter/X: We have decided to discontinue our activities on X. This account will continue to exist only as an archived account. We remain active on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook and YouTube. You are also invited to visit our website and find out all you need to know about…
“Bitcoin are digital tulips” | Mostly Economics
In an interview, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel says "Bitcoin are digital tulips": Central banks have been cautioning against Bitcoin and other crypto-assets for years. Yet the cooperative banks, for instance, want to offer crypto trading services, and even the savings banks are considering doing the same. Are their warnings falling on deaf ears? I would…
Macroeconomic impact of droughts in Uruguay | Mostly Economics
Jean François Clevy and Christopher Evans in this IMF paper analyse the once in a century drought from Oct 2022 to Apr 2023: Uruguay recently confronted the impact of a once-in-a-century severe drought, which affected key agricultural areas, and caused significant direct losses to the agricultural sector, especially for soybean production and cattle farming -…
Learning from the past: How effective history education reduces support for extreme ideology | Mostly Economics
Luca Braghieri and Sarah Eichmeyer in this voxeu research points to impartance of history education: Democracies around the world are seeing substantial increases in support for radical populist parties. This column uses a natural experiment in Germany from 2009 to 2014, when high school history curricula alternated between covering the communist German Democratic Republic and…
The Volcker Tightening Cycle: Explaining the 1982 Course Reversal | Mostly Economics
Bill Dupor of St Louis Fed reviews US high inflation episode in early 1980s: This article studies the factors that led former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to stop and then reverse course in the most famous monetary tightening cycle in U.S. history. I explain how the Fed began cutting its policy rate target, thus…
A Teacher Writes to Students Series (36): From Unhappiness to Happiness | Mostly Economics
A Teacher Writes to Students Series (36): From Unhappiness to Happiness Annavajhula J C Bose, PhD Department of Economics (Retd.), SRCC, DU If you are unhappy, especially due to being an econ guy--mathematically strong but utterly impotent to deal with tangible and intangible existential risks-- you might express your frustration with elusive happiness thus: Elusive…
How to build a Ukrainian Development Bank: Leveraging European history and Ukraine’s own reform experience | Mostly Economics
Inna Melnykovska, Eric Monnet and Matthias Thiemann in this piece discuss setting up a new development bank for Ukraine: Establishing a Ukrainian Development Bank is key to Ukraine’s post-war recovery, to foster both international trust and local ownership. This column describes how, drawing on lessons from the European national development banks and Ukraine’s recent reforms,…
What’s behind the resilience of US equity prices? | Mostly Economics
Magdalena Grothe, Ana-Simona Manu and Toma Tomov in this ECB short note try and figure what is behind the rise in US equity prices: Increases in US equity prices since early 2023 have led to elevated valuations, particularly for the so-called Magnificent Seven firms. US equity prices have risen by almost 60%, despite the Federal Reserve…
India Meteorological Department @150 | Mostly Economics
Indian Meteorological Department or IMD is celebrating its 150 years. It was established on 15 Jan 1875. IMD has released a souvenir to commemorate the occassion which has history (see this ppt) and discussion on IMD. There are many more things on the website. IMD will play a very important role going forward as we…
Indian Business Leaders: Hide behind veil of nationalism | Mostly Economics
It has become a fashion of late for Indian business and its leaders. Do or say anything questionable and hide behind veil of nationalism. Just saw we are doing this or saying this in national interests and hence we are not questionable. Rishi Raj of Indian Express writes a timely and scathing article on Indian…
How to Reclaim America’s ‘Democracy’ From the Big Finance Oligarchy | Mostly Economics
Michael McCarthy Professor of Sociology at UC Santa Cruz and economic activist has written this book: The Master’s Tools: How Finance Wrecked Democracy (And a Radical Plan to Rebuild It). Lynn Paramore of INET interviews McCarthy: Lynn Parramore: You point out that after the 2008 crash, Big Finance, despite the blow to its credibility, grew even…
RBI Deputy Governor Michael Parta retires; No replacement in time | Mostly Economics
The key regulatory appointments in India have had a common theme. The appointment is done either in few hours before the key person is going to retire or the appointment is allowed to be lapsed as if nothing has happened. I have written a lot about this casual approach to appointments multiple times in the…
Top wealth shares in the long run of history (ca. 1300-today) | Mostly Economics
Guideo Atlani on how inequality has been persistent since 1300: Long-term trends in wealth inequality have been the object of considerable recent attention and their analysis allows for a better understanding of the causes (and consequences) of inequality today. This column provides an overview of top wealth shares in Western countries from ca. 1300. In…
The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power | Mostly Economics
Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger in this short paper look at political economy of geoeconomic power: Great powers are increasingly using their economic and financial strength for geopolitical aims. This rise of "geoeconomics" has the potential to reshape the international trade and financial system. This paper examines the role of domestic political economy forces in determining…
In memoriam: Richard Easterlin, 1926-2024 | Mostly Economics
Andrew Oswald pays tribute to Richard Easterlin: Richard Easterlin, who passed away in December 2024, was a visionary economist whose pioneering research transformed how we think about economic growth, happiness and human wellbeing. This column, written by a friend and colleague, outlines some of the key contributions and impact of a long professional life mostly…
What we can learn from the inequality revolution in prehistory? | Mostly Economics
Samuel Bowles and Mattia Fochesato in this voxeu post do a deep dive on inequality: Wealth disparities among hunter-gatherers and farmers in Neolithic western Eurasia (11,700 to 5,300 years ago) were less substantial than the inequalities of the past five millennia, owing to a culture of ‘aggressive egalitarianism’ that thwarted the emergence of enduring wealth…
Humankind’s Comparative Advantage | Mostly Economics
Yuval Harari interview in IMF's F&D Magazine: F&D: One of the basic principles you build your history of sapiens on is our unique ability to imagine the future. How has our storytelling allowed us to prevail over other species evolving alongside us? YNH: Our power is cooperation. Chimpanzees, for instance, can cooperate only in very small numbers, but…
Martin Wolf tribute: ‘Manmohan Singh was unfailingly measured, thoughtful and wise’ | Mostly Economics
Martin Wolf of Financial Times pays a fine tribute to Dr Singh: It is both an honour and pleasure to have been invited to address this event in honour of Dr Manmohan Singh, the greatest man I have had the privilege of knowing. Singh’s achievements as a public servant are far above those of anybody…
How the Bank of England could have avoided mis-forecasting UK inflation during 2021–24 | Mostly Economics
Jennifer Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik and David Hendry in this voxeu article discuss how forecasting errors led to errors in Bank of England policy: The Bernanke Review was triggered by the Bank of England mis-forecasting UK inflation as it rose rapidly from 2021, peaking at 11% in 2022. Unpredictable shocks partly explain the failures, but…
Myron Scholes on Academic Finance, Black-Scholes Options Pricing, and Regulation | Mostly Economics
Jon Hartley on his Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century podcast profiles Prof Myron Scholes in its recent episode. How did you get influenced to study economics? And how did you come to the US to study for your PhD at the University of Chicago, where your advisors were Eugene Fama and Merton Miller?…
George Soros awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom! | Mostly Economics
Presidential Medal of Freedom is the highest civilian honor given by United States. Today, President Biden named nineteen recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom. The Presidential Medal of Freedom is the Nation’s highest civilian honor, presented to individuals who have made exemplary contributions to the prosperity, values, or security of the United States, world…
Bangladesh rewriting history textbooks | Mostly Economics
One way for history to be kinder to you is to rewrite history books! Bangladesh leaders are currently doing the same: Bangladesh has introduced new textbooks that state Ziaur Rahman declared the country’s independence in 1971, replacing previous editions that credited the founding father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, with the declaration, according to a media…
Indian cricket keeps going in circles | Mostly Economics
Ten years ago Virat Kohli announced himself to Test cricket on the Australia tour. As the stand-in capitain, Kohli led from the front by smashing two centuries in the first test at Adelaide. India lost the test but Kohli stamped himself as a superb batter and aggressive leader. Dhoni came back in the second test…
Banking before the modern era | Mostly Economics
Prof JR Varma points to two books that discuss banking history before the modern era: The history of banking in the modern era (last 500 years or so) is reasonably well known. However, I knew very little of banking before that era (except that it was dominated by the Italians). Two recent books helped me…
2025: Whither Democracy? | Mostly Economics
Alok Sheel in TheIndiaForum: The far right’s rise globally threatens hard-won democratic institutions and Enlightenment values. To counter this, both liberal democracy and the left must address socio-economic inequality and prioritise individual freedoms, echoing the collaboration that curbed the far right a century ago. It is incredible how little humanity learns from history. What was…
How will history see Indian media? | Mostly Economics
Dr Manmohan Singh famously said "I honestly believe that the history will be kinder to me than the media houses and the opposition parties in Parliament". The media which laughed at his statement did not realise that the joke was actually on the media itself. He said these words in his last Press Conference which…
State-Level Inflation Forecasts for India: Based on Data from Inflation Expectations Survey of Households | Mostly Economics
Purnima Shaw and R. K. Sinha in this new RBI research provide inflation forecasts at State level: The Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) completed its 90th round in March 2024. Using the historical series from this survey, this paper provides state-level inflation forecasts. Deviating from the conventional…
How Paul Krugman changed the public face of economics | Mostly Economics
Paul Krugman retired as a NY Times columnist in December. Noah Smith writes on how Krugman changed the public face of economics: Don’t worry, Paul Krugman is still alive. But he’s retiring as a New York Times columnist, after almost 25 years. He will be greatly missed. (He’s moving to Substack, though, so hopefully he’ll do a…
MAGA Civil war over H1B visas: Remembering the poem First they came… | Mostly Economics
I wrote two pieces over the last days of 2024: The economic consequences of Mr Trump and need to heal given rise of hate all across the world. In the consequences piece, I argued how Trump's economic policies are creating high economic uncertainity even before Trump is sworn in as POTUS. In the hate piece,…
A prayer for the New year 2025: Heal the world | Mostly Economics
Wishing everyone a very happy 2025. In this article written for 2025, I argue how hate crime incidents are rising across the world. The probability of genocide is also rising in quite a few countries. Yet economists continue to ignore and give their economic forecasts as if it business as usual. A prayer for the…
The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump | Mostly Economics
We dismiss and forget lessons of history. Only for history to comeback and tell us I am alive. In 1925, John Maynard Keynes wrote one of his many famous prophecies titled "The Economic Consequences of Mr Churchill". Nearly 100 years later, Keynes would be surprised how his prophecies are stillrelevant albeit for a different person…
Manmohan Singh: Abused at home and applauded abroad | Mostly Economics
One of the most shocking things for most Indians saw is the number of poignant messages he received from leaders across the world. How is it that someone who was so undermined, whose every contribution was questioned, whose every move was mocked was so respected abroad? Even his ardent admirers would be surprised to learn…
Dr Urjit Patel rememebers Dr Manmohan Singh | Mostly Economics
One has been totally overwhelmed with the tributes being written and said for Dr Manmohan Singh. One is also equally aguished with some people continue to demean and disrespect the person (more on that later). Of all the tributes I have seen so far, I found the the ones by Dr Urjit Patel (this and…
When Adam Smith met Manmohan Singh | Mostly Economics
One is still reeling from the sad demise of Dr. Manmohan Singh. I earlier wrote on how my forays into economics and writing this blog were largely due to the Dr Singh. Lots of tributes are pouring in for the man who along with then Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao shaped and changed not destiny…