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Best Of Book Bits 2022: Part I | The Capital Spectator
The year that’s nearly over has taken the world on one heck of a ride, quite often for the wrong reasons. The good news is that the publishing world has continued to mint great books, including several in the finance and economics category that have appeared in CapitalSpectator.com’s weekly Book Bit
Modest GDP Growth Expected In Q4 As Recession Risk Lurks | The Capital Spectator
Economic output appears on track to post a second quarterly increase, based on the median nowcast for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. At the same time, recession risk is elevated, according to several estimates of business-cycle activity. The conflicting signals suggest the pote
Macro Briefing: 22 December 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* Zelensky, in visit to Washington,urgesUS to help it defeat Russia* USunveilsnew $1.8 billion of new military aid for Ukraine* Kremlinwarnsthat more US arms in Ukraine will aggravate war* China’s Xibetson economic growth as distraction from Covid outbreak* Netanyahu on brink ofreturning to poweras
Book Bits: 17 December 2022 | The Capital Spectator
●Leveraged: The New Economics of Debt and Financial FragilityMoritz Schularick (editor)Summaryvia publisher (U. of Chicago Press)The 2008 financial crisis was a seismic event that laid bare how financial institutions’ instabilities can have devastating effects on societies and economies. COVID-19 br
10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 15 December 2022 | The Capital Spectator
The US Treasury 10-year yield continues to look elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on theaverage of three models.That’s no assurance that the market will trim the benchmark yield, but current conditions still suggest that the odds appear skewed to a neu
Macro Briefing: 15 December 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* Bidenannouncesefforts to promote trade between US and Africa* Markets appearmore optimisticon inflation outlook vs. Fed’s expectations* Fed Chairman Powell on rate hikes:“We still have some ways to go”* China Covid spike predates ending zero-tolerance policy,saysWHO director* China retail salesfal
Will The Tight Labor Market Keep The US Out Of Recession? | The Capital Spectator
The recession warnings have been piling up this year, but thanks to growth in consumer spending and hiring the US economic expansion has endured. Yesterday’s surprisingly weak retail sales data for November, however, suggest that the consumer sector may be buckling. If so, that leaves the labor mark
How Long And How Far Will The Fed Lift Interest Rates? | The Capital Spectator
The answer, of course, depends on how soon inflation shows convincing signs of behaving. There are hints that we’re now in the early phase of post-peak inflation. Today’s update on consumer price inflation for November will be a reality check, which in turn will factor into the Federal Reserve’s mon
Macro Briefing: 13 December 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* FTX founder Sam Bankman-Friedarrestedin Bahamas* Binance, world’s largest crypto exchange,haltswithdrawals of stablecoin USDC* ChinachallengesUS chip curbs at WTO, charging ‘trade protectionism’* India and China troopsclashat disputed mountain border* European Union plans totax importsbased on gre
US GDP Growth On Track To Slow In Q4 As Recession Risk Rises | The Capital Spectator
The rebound in US economic activity is expected to slow in the fourth quarter, according to the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The nowcast offers a bright note amid swirling recession forecasts, but business-cycle indicators suggest that the Q4 GDP estimate will fade
Macro Briefing: 6 December 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* Ukraine dronesextendattacks into Russia* Global economic activity deepened during November, PMI survey datareports* US factory ordersrisemore than forecast in October* Global manufacturing operationsshiftingaway from China* Oil pricesriseas new cap starts on the price of Russian crude* Renewables
Book Bits: 3 December 2022 | The Capital Spectator
●Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About ItErica ThompsonReviewvia The EconomistThe author calls on data geeks to improve their solutions to real-world issues, not merely refine their formulae—in other words, to escape from model land. “We do not n
Major Asset Classes | November 2022 | Performance Review | The Capital Spectator
The rebound in global markets strengthened and broadened in November, building onOctober’s rebound.Only commodities lost ground last month. Otherwise, all the major asset classes posted gains, based on a set of proxy ETFs.Stocks in emerging markets led November’s winners. Vanguard Emerging Markets S
Stocks In Developed Markets Ex-US Roared Higher Last Week | The Capital Spectator
This year’s selling looked excessive in developed-market shares ex-US and so the crowd continued to snap up stocks in this bucket during the trading week through Friday, Nov. 25. The rally delivered the strongest weekly gain for themajor asset classes,based on a set of ETFs. But the return of risk-o
Macro Briefing: 28 November 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* Protestsbroke outacross China against Covid restrictions* Public anger over China’s zero-Covid policy Covidcreates political risksfor Xi* Chinareportsthird straight day of daily record for new Covid cases* Chinareaffirmsits zero-Covid policy after widespread protests* Recession risk may be rising,
Waiting (And Hoping) For A Bottom In Global Equity Markets | The Capital Spectator
For most equity strategies diversified across global markets, this year’s results will be painful. Short of a dramatic run higher between now and the end of 2022, red ink will prevail. But when losses dominate, it’s time to start looking for bargains.The longer your investment horizon, the more conf
Macro Briefing: 29 November 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* Protests in China createnew uncertaintyglobal economic outlook* Chinareportsfirst decline in daily Covid infections in more than a week* Inflation fight could last through 2024,saysNY Fed president* Business groupsask Congressto prevent rail strike* Eurozone economic sentiment in Novemberrisesfor
Macro Briefing: 22 November 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* Another 75-basis-points rate hike is possible,saysSan Francisco Fed president* Iran startsproducinguranium enriched to 60 percent* OPEC oil producers arediscussingan output increase* Goldman Sachslowersoil-price forecast* Chinasigns27-year liquefied natural gas deal with QatarEnergy* US rail strik
Book Bits: 26 November 2022 | The Capital Spectator
●Trade Wars: Past and PresentNils Ole Oermann and Hans-Jürgen WolffSummaryvia publisher (Oxford U. Press)This book explores the causes and instruments of 500 years of armed and non-armed international trade conflicts. Nils Ole Oermann and Hans-Jürgen Wolff draw on decades of experience to examine tr
Macro Briefing: 23 November 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* World economic growth projected to “slow further” in 2023, OECDpredicts* Despite slowing growth, world economyexpectedto avoid recession* China’s ability to maintain zero-Covid policymay be fading* Workers in Chinaprotestover pay amid anti-virus controls* US and allies plan toannounceoil price cap
Macro Briefing: 30 November 2022 | The Capital Spectator
* Bidencalls on Congressto ‘immediately’ pass legislation to avert rail shutdown* Junk bondsrise,fueled by speculation that rate hikes have peaked* China manufacturing activityfellat a deeper pace in November* China may reopen in March, easing zero-Covid policy,predictseconomist* Eurozone inflatione
Treasury Market Warns US Recession Risk Is Elevated | The Capital Spectator
Recent data for the US economy reflect a mixed profile, but several widely followed business-cycle indicators are screaming recession.A pair of Treasury yield curves are signaling that the odds are high that a period of economic contraction is approaching. The spread for the 2- and 10-year Treasury
Is The Bond Market Pricing In The End Game For Rate Hikes? | The Capital Spectator
It’s been an unusually rough year for bond investing, but there are hints that the market is forecasting that the worst has passed. If correct, shifting to a risk-on posture offers the opportunity for hefty returns going forward.As always with trying to divine the future for markets there’s no way t
10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 22 November 2022 | The Capital Spectator
Last month Ireportedthat the ‘fair value’ of the US 10-year Treasury yield appeared “lofty” relative to the average estimate for acombination model.In the weeks since, the benchmark rate has fallen. That’s probably noise, but a month later the model continues to advise that the 10-year rate is lofty