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Real PCE Goods Computed from Retail Sales Implies a 68 Basis Point Boost to Q4 GDP | The Economic Populist
With estimates of the relative change in real PCE goods between the months of the 3rd and the months of the 4th quarter, we are also able to estimate the change in real PCE goods between those two quarters.
Global oil production was 1,680,000 barrels per day less than demand in October | The Economic Populist
Last week saw the release of OPEC's November Oil Market Report, which includes the details on OPEC's & global oil data for October, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation as Chinese demand grew faster than expected, after their first half recovery from the country's restrictive Covid policy had stalled over the summer, while oil supplies
Retail Sales Fell 1.0% in March, but PCE Goods Still Adds 167 Basis Points to Q1 GDP | The Economic Populist
Now that we have estimates of the percentage change in real PCE goods for all three months of the first quarter, we can also estimate the contribution that real PCE goods will make to 1st quarter GDP
4th Quarter GDP Grew at 2.9% Rate on Increased Inventories, Personal Services, and Government | The Economic Populist
In current dollars, our fourth quarter GDP grew at a 6.51% annual rate, increasing from what would work out to a $25,723.9 billion annual rate in the 3rd quarter to a $26,132.5 annual rate in the 4th quarter, with the headline 2.9% annualized rate of increase in real output arrived at after annualized inflation adjustments averaging 3.5%, aka the GDP deflator, were computed
US Trade Deficit fell 21% in November, but is Still a Big Hit to 4th Quarter GDP | The Economic Populist
Our trade deficit fell 21.0% in November, the largest one month drop since the 2009 recession, as both the value of our exports and the value of our imports decreased, but the value of our imports decreased by quite a bit more.
US oil supplies at a 36½ year low, SPR at a 39 year low; oil+products supplies at an 18½ year low | The Economic Populist
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending December 16th indicated that after a big drop in our oil imports and a big decrease in those mysterious oil supplies that could not be accounted for, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 5th time in 6 weeks, and for the 16th time in the past 35 weeks, despite
GDP Shrunk at 0.9% Rate in 2nd Quarter on Weaker Consumer Goods, Construction, & Inventories | The Economic Populist
Our economy shrunk at a 0.9% rate in the 2nd quarter, a second consecutive contraction, as greater personal consumption of services and an increase in exports were more than offset by lower personal consumption of goods, a decrease in fixed investment and weaker investment in inventories, which subtracted more than 2 percent from GDP growth....
Third Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP & Revisions From 2017 to Present | The Economic Populist
The Third Estimate of our 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday included an annual revision, which in this year's case revised GDP data from first quarter of 2017 through the first quarter of 2022, resulting in revisions to GDP, GDP by industry, gross domestic income, and related components.
US oil exports at a record high, oil supplies at a 18 year low, SPR at a 37 year low | The Economic Populist
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending July 22nd indicated that despite another large oil withdrawal from the SPR, increased production from our wells, and a refinery slowdown, we still needed to withdraw oil from our stored commercial crude supplies for the 4th time in 6 weeks, and for the 21st time over the past 35 weeks, mostly because
July PCE up at a 36.6% Rate from 2nd quarter, suggesting a "V" shaped recovery | The Economic Populist
To estimate the impact of the change in PCE on the change in GDP, we have to compare July's real PCE to the real PCE of the 3 months of the second quarter. When we compare July's inflation adjusted PCE of 12,778.2 billion to the 2nd quarter’s real PCE of 11,819.6 billion, we find that July’s real PCE has grown at a 36.605% annual rate from the 2nd quarter.
2nd Quarter GDP Down a Record 32.9% After Revisions From 2015 to Present | The Economic Populist
The 5 year annual growth rate of personal consumption was revised down from 2.8% to 2.7%, the 5 year annual growth rate of private investment was revised up from 2.2% to 2.5%, the annual growth rate of exports was revised from 1.1% to 1.3%, the annual growth rate of imports was revised from 2.6% to 2.5%, and the growth of government investment and consumption was revised to a
Trump Does Right On H-1B Reform | The Economic Populist
In the 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump promised to reform the H-1B work visa program. That should have been the least controversial of his plans, as the visa has long been recognized by both major parties as having major problems. Almost all the major candidates in 2016 — Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Clinton and Sanders — were critical of the program.However, very little reform
US oil supplies at a 13½ year low; total oil + products supplies at a 95 mo low | The Economic Populist
US oil supplies are at a 13½ year low, but oil exports are at a 8 month high; SPR is at a 19½ year low after biggest draw since August 2011; gasoline exports are at a 39 month high; distillate supplies are at a 95 month low; total oil + products supplies also at a 95 month low after across the board drawdowns
GDP revised to 7.0% growth for the 4th Quarter 2022 | The Economic Populist
The Second Estimate of our 4th Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 7.0% rate in the quarter, revised from the 6.9% growth rate reported in the advance estimate last month, as slower growth of personal consumption of services and of exports than was previously estimated was more than offset by greater
Do you think Covid is "Over"? | The Economic Populist
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Global oil production exceeded demand by 1,490,000 barrels per day in June | The Economic Populist
Tuesday of the past week saw the release of OPEC's July Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for June, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation at a time when Chinese demand was curtailed by restrictive Covid lockdowns, while the supply of Russian oil was curtailed by sanctions imposed by the West