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At Barron’s: Americans Owe Less Than They Used To. Will the Fed Change That? – J. W. Mason
(I write a monthly opinion piece forBarron’s. This one waspublished therein September.)Almost everyone, it seems, nowagreesthat higher interest rates mean economic pain. This pain is usually thought of in terms of lost jobs and shuttered businesses. Those costs are very real. But there’s another cos
Fisher Dynamics Revisited – J. W. Mason
Back in the 2010s, Arjun Jayadev and I wrote a pair of papers (one,two) on the evolution of debt-income ratios for US households. This post updates a couple key findings from those papers. (The new stuff begins at the table below.)Rather than econometric exercises, the papers were based on a histori
At Jacobin: Review of Beth Popp Berman’s Thinking Like an Economist – J. W. Mason
(This review appeared in the Summer 2022 edition ofJacobin.)After the passage of Medicare and Medicaid, universal health insurance seemed to be on its way. In 1971, the New York Times observed that “Americans from all strata of society … are swinging over to the idea that good health care, like good
What Does It Mean to Say that Inflation Is Caused by Demand? – J. W. Mason
There has been a lot of debate about whether the high inflation of 2021-2022 has been due mainly to supply or demand factors. Joe Stiglitz and Ira Regmi have anew paper from Rooseveltmaking the case for supply disruptions as the decisive factor. It’s the most thorough version of that case that I’ve
At Barron’s: What’s At Stake in the Labor Market? – J. W. Mason
(I am now writing a monthly opinion piece forBarron’s. This one waspublished therein August.)Thelabor marketis exceptionally tight, at least by the standards of recent history. That matters for monetary policy, but its importance goes beyond inflation, or even material living standards. We are used
Slides on “Rethinking Supply Constraints” – J. W. Mason
On December 2-3, 2022, the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst (where I did my economics PhD) will be hosting aconferenceon “Global Inflation Today: What Is To Be Done?”1I will be speaking on “Rethinking Supply Constraints,” a new project I am working on w
2020 books – J. W. Mason
(I wrote this list at the beginning of 2021 but for some reason never posted it. I figured it’s worth putting up now – they’re all still good books.)Books I read in 2020. None of them were life-changing, but several were very good.Weather, by Jenny Offill.A small graceful novel about middle-class li
Demand, Supply, Both, or Neither? – J. W. Mason
One way current debates over inflation sometimes get framed is whether it’s driven by supply or demand. Critics of the ARPA and other stimulus measurespoint to various lines of evidenceto suggest that rising prices are coming from the demand side, not the supply side; and of course you can find the
At Barron’s: What We Don’t Talk About When We Talk About Inflation – J. W. Mason
(I am now writing a monthly opinion piece forBarron’s. This one waspublished therein July.)To listen to economic policy debates today, you would think the U.S. economy has just one problem: inflation. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was asked athis last press conferenceif there was a dan
At Barron’s: Rate Hikes Are the Wrong Cure for Rising Housing Costs – J. W. Mason
(I write a monthly opinion piece forBarron’s. This is my contribution for November 2022.)How much of our inflation problem is really a housing-cost problem?During the first half of 2021, vehicle prices accounted for almost the whole rise in inflation. For much of this year, it was mostly energy pric
2020 books – J. W. Mason
(I wrote this list at the beginning of 2021 but for some reason never posted it. I figured it’s worth putting up now – they’re all still good books.)Books I read in 2020. None of them were life-changing, but several were very good.Weather, by Jenny Offill.A small graceful novel about middle-class li
What Does It Mean to Say that Inflation Is Caused by Demand? – J. W. Mason
There has been a lot of debate about whether the high inflation of 2021-2022 has been due mainly to supply or demand factors. Joe Stiglitz and Ira Regmi have anew paper from Rooseveltmaking the case for supply disruptions as the decisive factor. It’s the most thorough version of that case that I’ve
Slides on “Rethinking Supply Constraints” – J. W. Mason
On December 2-3, 2022, the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst (where I did my economics PhD) will be hosting aconferenceon “Global Inflation Today: What Is To Be Done?”1I will be speaking on “Rethinking Supply Constraints,” a new project I am working on w
Demand, Supply, Both, or Neither? – J. W. Mason
One way current debates over inflation sometimes get framed is whether it’s driven by supply or demand. Critics of the ARPA and other stimulus measurespoint to various lines of evidenceto suggest that rising prices are coming from the demand side, not the supply side; and of course you can find the
At Barron’s: Americans Owe Less Than They Used To. Will the Fed Change That? – J. W. Mason
(I write a monthly opinion piece forBarron’s. This one waspublished therein September.)Almost everyone, it seems, nowagreesthat higher interest rates mean economic pain. This pain is usually thought of in terms of lost jobs and shuttered businesses. Those costs are very real. But there’s another cos
What Is the Stock Market For? – J. W. Mason
Elon Musk’s pending purchase of Twitter is an occasion for thinking,again, about what function stock markets perform in modern capitalism.The original form of wealth in a capitalist society is control over some production process. If you become a wealthy capitalist, what this means at the outset is
Inflation, Interest Rates and the Fed: A Dissent – J. W. Mason
Last week, my Roosevelt colleague Mike Konczalsaid on twitterthat he endorsed the Fed’s decision to raise the federal funds rate, and the larger goal of using higher interest rates to weaken demand and slow growth. Mike is a very sharp guy, and I generally agree with him on almost everything. But in
At Jacobin: Review of Beth Popp Berman’s Thinking Like an Economist – J. W. Mason
(This review appeared in the Summer 2022 edition ofJacobin.)After the passage of Medicare and Medicaid, universal health insurance seemed to be on its way. In 1971, the New York Times observed that “Americans from all strata of society … are swinging over to the idea that good health care, like good
At the International Economy: What’s Wrong with Abundant Liquidity? – J. W. Mason
(I am an occasional contributor to roundtables of economists in the magazineThe International Economy. This month’s topic was the possible dangers of “today’s giant swirling ocean of liquidity”.)Imagine a city that experiences a miraculous improvement in its transit system. Thanks to some mix of new
At Barron’s: What We Don’t Talk About When We Talk About Inflation – J. W. Mason
(I am now writing a monthly opinion piece forBarron’s. This one waspublished therein July.)To listen to economic policy debates today, you would think the U.S. economy has just one problem: inflation. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was asked athis last press conferenceif there was a dan
Fisher Dynamics Revisited – J. W. Mason
Back in the 2010s, Arjun Jayadev and I wrote a pair of papers (one,two) on the evolution of debt-income ratios for US households. This post updates a couple key findings from those papers. (The new stuff begins at the table below.)Rather than econometric exercises, the papers were based on a histori
At Barron’s: Rate Hikes Are the Wrong Cure for Rising Housing Costs – J. W. Mason
(I write a monthly opinion piece forBarron’s. This is my contribution for November 2022.)How much of our inflation problem is really a housing-cost problem?During the first half of 2021, vehicle prices accounted for almost the whole rise in inflation. For much of this year, it was mostly energy pric
At Barron’s: What’s At Stake in the Labor Market? – J. W. Mason
(I am now writing a monthly opinion piece forBarron’s. This one waspublished therein August.)Thelabor marketis exceptionally tight, at least by the standards of recent history. That matters for monetary policy, but its importance goes beyond inflation, or even material living standards. We are used