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Elon Musk is wrong about GDP | Tim Harford
Of all the dubious claims uttered recently by Elon Musk, I have yet to see a more interesting one than his tweet asserting that “a more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending. Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don’t make people’s lives better.” Whether or not…
How to cure ‘premature enumeration’ | Tim Harford
John von Neumann — the man who created game theory, advanced many branches of mathematics and physics, and did more than anyone to design the modern computer — was someone who attracted a certain amount of mythology. One story about von Neumann has a colleague setting him a fun puzzle. In this puzzle, two trains,…
Cautionary Tales – “I love being the person who doesn’t know anything” | Tim Harford
20 years ago, a book called Freakonomics became an instant bestseller and worldwide sensation. Tim Harford got his hands on the first copy that Steve Levitt ever signed... and promptly sold it on eBay. In this Cautionary Conversation, the pair are reunited to discuss the Freakonomics phenomenon, why Levitt left the hostile world of academia,…
The Tao of Bad Buildings | Tim Harford
The most interesting architecture story of recent months is neither Adrien Brody’s Oscar for playing an architect, nor Donald Trump’s executive order “Promoting Beautiful Federal Civic Architecture”. It was the revelation, late last year, that the first building to win the prestigious Stirling Prize is now scheduled to be demolished. The building, the University of…
Cautionary Tales – Derek Bentley Must Hang | Tim Harford
This episode is released exclusively on Pushkin+. Episodes are released on the main feed each Friday. An amateurish burglary in 1950s London ends in murder. One of the men involved is a 19-year-old named Derek Bentley. Bentley has the understanding of a child - and he wasn't the killer. But the British justice system seems determined…
Cautionary Tales – The Old Man and the Wrecking Crew | Tim Harford
When Britain entered its first Covid-19 lockdown in March 2020, many found comfort in evoking the British wartime spirit. A timely hero emerged - Captain Tom Moore, a WWII veteran who walked up and down his garden to raise money for frontline nurses. But when the fundraising switched to a new charity, did anyone think to…
Life lessons from Donald “Shoup Dogg” Shoup | Tim Harford
The death in February of an octogenarian named Donald Shoup did not make many headlines, but it did prompt a flood of admiring social media conversations among the “Shoupistas”, a small but fervent fan club of the man they called Shoup Dogg. Shoup was a tweed-wearing, extravagantly bearded economist. What had such a man done…
The selfish guide to decarbonising | Tim Harford
Think globally, act locally, they used to say. If it’s true, why does it matter that the US has — again — withdrawn support for international co-ordination on climate change? In the mid-20th century, the US emitted about as much carbon dioxide as every other country in the world combined. Now its share of global…
Cautionary Tales – Houdini: The phone call from the coffin (Part 3) | Tim Harford
Fearing for his life, Harry Houdini leaves secret codes with his loved ones that he promises to use in any post-mortem messaging. In 1926, Houdini's death shocks the world, but the news that follows is even more astounding. A report of the impossible: contact has been made. This is the final part in a three-part…
Cautionary Tales – Houdini’s detective and her 1500 dead husbands (Part 2) | Tim Harford
Harry Houdini finds an ally in his fight against spiritualism, a brilliant detective called Rose Mackenberg, who'll do whatever it takes to expose a fake. Together, the two head to Washington to try and get lawmakers to criminalise mediums. The hearing that follows will be violent, sensational and leave Houdini fearing for his life. This is…
An alternative take on Trump’s favourite word | Tim Harford
Since nothing seems to be off the table when it comes to trade policy, I thought I might put forward a modest two-step trade policy reform to make America great again. Step one, levy a substantial tax on all exports, from aeroplanes to soyabeans. Such a tax will squeeze America’s most internationally competitive industries. That’s…
Cautionary Tales – Houdini: A message from the spirits (Part 1) | Tim Harford
Harry Houdini is remembered today for his legendary escapes and illusions, but he also had a lifelong obsession with the paranormal. After dabbling in fake seances himself, Houdini made it his mission to uncover fakes and expose mediums. This put him on a collision course with his spiritualist friend, Arthur Conan Doyle, and left him fearing for his life.…
What Elon can learn from the original Doge | Tim Harford
As a tourist, the only reasonable response to Venice’s all-consuming beauty is to gasp in admiration after rounding every corner. As an economist, another response occurs: once upon a time, this city must have been incredibly wealthy. From Bruges to Kyoto, being eclipsed after making it rich has long been a reliable way for cities…
Cautionary Tales – True Lies and Genuine Fakes | Tim Harford
This episode is released exclusively on Pushkin+. Episodes are released on the main feed each Friday. In 1998, an art gallery gets a mysterious phone call. The caller claims they have been fooled by a master forger and that many of their prized paintings are fakes. Or are they? This is the story of the life…
The case for ‘late bloomers’ | Tim Harford
Highbrow pleasure recently: the Royal Opera House, and Leoš Janáček’s Jenůfa. The opera was first performed when the composer was 50, and it was followed by an outpouring of new music, better than anything he had managed in his supposed prime. My favourites include Sinfonietta and Glagolitic Mass, both composed shortly before his death at…
Cautionary Tales – Would You Trust a Gangster Nanny? | Tim Harford
Do we trust our fitness trackers too much? How do fraudsters gain our faith? Why do people trust podcasters? And would you trust a drug dealing nanny with a tambourine? Tim Harford is joined by trust expert Rachel Botsman to answer your questions. Rachel lectures in trust at Oxford University and her new audiobook How To Trust…
It’s February. Time for another fresh start? | Tim Harford
On the first of January, you can’t move without bumping into an article about new year’s resolutions. The same cannot be said about the first of February — and that may be part of the problem. Each year begins with us in full Bridget Jones mode, resolving to turn over a new leaf. Sometimes we…
Cautionary Tales – Lights, Camera, Tax Break | Tim Harford
When Ernest Borgnine gets his big break in Hollywood, he can hardly believe his luck. But soon he discovers his supposed star vehicle, Marty, is not the dream gig he thought it was. In this episode of Cautionary Tales, recorded live at the Bristol Festival of Economics, Tim Harford examines what happens when the murky world of tax avoidance…
Cautionary Tales – the Nursery Rhyme that Ruined a Rock Band | Tim Harford
"Down Under" was huge. This jokey ode to legendary Australian wanderlust helped Men at Work win a Grammy and was a key part of the band's creative legacy. It had also been earning "Men At Work" a steady stream of royalties for nearly 30 years, when a game show pointed out the song's subtle link with…
Can economic growth still make us happy? | Tim Harford
Richard Easterlin died in December at the age of 98. He’s been called “the father of happiness economics”, and it’s hard to disagree. Fifty years ago, after struggling to find an economics journal with any interest in the topic, Easterlin published an article titled “Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot?” It planted the seeds…
Cautionary Tales – The Widow Who Disrupted Champagne | Tim Harford
Cautionary Conversation: You may be surprised to learn that champagne as we know it today was invented by a nineteenth-century businesswoman. Tim Harford is joined by Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business and the host of The Unshakeables podcast, to explore the story of the trailblazing Widow Clicquot - aka La Veuve Clicquot. Tim and…
Cautionary Tales – The Thrill and the Drop: A First Date Rollercoaster | Tim Harford
Leah Washington and her new boyfriend Joe Pugh are on their first day out together. They're at Alton Towers theme park, where they've chosen to ride the "Smiler" rollercoaster: a terrifying tangle of track that loops and swoops through a world-record 14 inversions. Leah and Joe are seated right at the front of the train,…
Want to change? Consider your situation | Tim Harford
Imagine that a certain person — let’s call them Robin — is walking across a college campus when they pass a doorway and notice a man slumped on the ground. The man coughs and moans as Robin passes. Will Robin stop and help? To answer the question, we might want to know more about Robin.…
Cautionary Tales – Dr Brinkley’s Miracle Cure for Impotence | Tim Harford
Cautionary Conversation: In the 1920s, a conman convinced America that goat testicles were the secret to male virility. Tim Harford and Dr Kate Lister (Betwixt the Sheets podcast) dive into the bizarre and grisly tale of "Doctor" John Brinkley - a snake oil salesman who successfully mobilised the power of radio marketing. Brinkley built an…
Cautionary Tales – Disaster Favours the Daring: Shipwreck at Honda Point | Tim Harford
This episode is released exclusively on Pushkin+. Episodes are released on the main feed each Friday. In 1923, legendary navigator Captain Dolly Hunter led a squadron of warships into America's worst peacetime naval catastrophe. The mission was supposed to be a speed trial, a display of the squadron's skill. But it ended in a maritime pile-up,…
Do you want the good feedback, or the bad feedback? | Tim Harford
Rarely a day goes by that I don’t look out of my window to notice a car travelling east down my quiet little street. That is unremarkable, you might think — except that the street is one-way, running west. The street doesn’t function as a cut-through, so my guess is that these drivers aren’t flouting…
Cautionary Tales – The Night of the Mugger | Tim Harford
Winston Trew has just been arrested for mugging. It's 1972, and the crime has recently made its way to Britain from the United States. Dangerous thugs, replicating their American counterparts, have made the city of London their hunting ground - so Winston's eventual conviction is a win for the police and the press. The problem is,…
Cautionary Tales – Missing on “Dead Mountain”: A cold war cold case | Tim Harford
In the bleak Russian winter of 1959, nine experienced hikers set out on an expedition. None of them made it back alive. When their campsite was finally discovered, it told a chilling story: tents slashed open, bodies scattered across the snow. The hikers' injuries were as baffling as they were gruesome. One had had his…
The truth about the forecasting paradox | Tim Harford
Here’s the problem with forecasts: some of them are right, and some of them are wrong, and by the time we find out which is which, it’s too late. This leads to what we might call the forecasting paradox: the test of a useful forecast is not whether it turns out to be accurate, but…