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Devaluation is a deliberate downward adjustment of a currency's value relative to other currencies or commodities. It is typically used by countries to control the amount of money in circulation and the balance of payments deficits. It is also used to make it cheaper for domestic citizens to buy imported goods, thus increasing demand and stimulating the economy. When a currency is devalued, its value relative to other currencies decreases, meaning that the country's goods and services appear more attractive to foreign buyers. This can lead to an increase in exports, which can help to boost economic growth. On the other hand, devaluation also makes imported goods more expensive, which can lead to inflation and a decrease in purchasing power for domestic citizens.
Trump escalated the trade war further threatening additional 50% tariffs on China effective tomorrow if they don't back off from the recent retaliatory tariffs. This move increased the risk of the yuan devaluation which could roil the markets if enacted.
In China, the PBoC set the USD/CNY fixing at 7.2066 this morning. This marks the fifth consecutive adjustment higher, reinforcing the view that a controlled weakening of the yuan (albeit not a devaluation) is part of China’s policy response to tariffs, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes
Tensions between the United States and China have ratcheted higher since “Liberation Day.” We now believe the outlook for China's economy and currency has shifted away from our original base case and into our “protracted trade war” downside scenario. The growth outlook for China has materially worsened and tensions are likely to escalate through non-tariff barriers to trade; however, we maintain our view that Chinese authorities will not engineer an FX devaluation at any point during Trade War 2.0.
Markets are anxiously assessing US President Trump's next moves in the ongoing "Tariff Turmoil". At the time of writing, most countries face a 10% duty on most exports and a 25% tariff on cars, steel, aluminium as well as most goods from Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile China faces a 145% tariff, and we expect China to take even stronger measures than the already 125% tariff on US exports to boost domestic demand, potentially lowering the policy rate in the week after easter, but refrain from delivering a devaluation. In total this represents a substantial tightening of fiscal policy in the US - heightening recession risks. US retail sales data on Wednesday will be watched closely as an indicator of a potential slowdown in the economy.