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1. "The Fragile State of the World's Children" (2020). UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/publications/files/Fragile_State_of_the_Worlds_Children_2020.pdf 2. Blyth, Erica. "The Fragile State of Mental Health in the Workplace" (2020). Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2020/08/the-fragile-state-of-mental-health-in-the-workplace 3. Alford, Henry. "The Fragile Beauty of the Ocean" (2020). The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/ocean-plastic-pollution.html 4. "Fragile States Index 2020" (2020). Fund for Peace. https://fragilestatesindex.org/ 5. "Global Fragility Act: A Crucial Step Toward Addressing Global Fragility" (2020). U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. https://www.usglc.org/global-fragility-act-crucial-step-toward
The first half of the week was full of fear and hope. Trump’s frustration with the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Powell and the threat of Powell being removed from his role weighed on sentiment at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the IMF lowered its world growth forecasts sharply pointing at hectic and harmful US trade policy. Equities fell and the US dollar weakened.
Market sentiment somehow improved on news that Donald Trump would ease auto tariffs by lifting some levies on imported auto parts, and to avoid aluminium and steel levies stacking up alongside the rest of the tariffs—probably as a marketing move as he gave a speech in Michigan marking his 100 days in office. As a result, carmakers around the world and major US indices posted gains yesterday.
The S&P 500 gained for the eighth consecutive session despite a set of soft economic data and cautious earnings forecasts. The lack of escalation in the trade war over the past week and dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations certainly explain a major part of the recent gains. But optimism remains fragile, and the Fed’s ability to help depends on the trajectory of inflation.
Carola Müller, Matias Ossandon Busch, Miguel Sarmiento and Freddy Pinzon-Puerto in this interesting BIS paper: We investigate the impact of large-scale investment fund redemptions on bank lending. Using detailed data on the link between commercial banks and investment funds in an emerging economy, we document that redemptions lead to a decrease in the demand for…