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GDP News The World Bank cuts global GDP outlook for 2020 The World Bank has cut its global GDP growth forecast for 2020 due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The World Bank now expects the global economy to contract by 5.2 percent this year, a downgrade from its April forecast of a 3 percent contraction. The World Bank said that the pandemic had caused “an unprecedented shock” to the global economy and “far-reaching economic, social, and political consequences.” The bank warned that the global economy could face a significant risk of a “protracted recession” if the pandemic is not contained. It also warned that the economic impact of the pandemic could have long-lasting effects on the wellbeing of individuals and societies. The World Bank also warned that the global economic recovery could be “sluggish” and “uneven” as countries struggle to contain the virus and address the economic fallout. It emphasized the importance of continued fiscal and monetary policy support to help countries and businesses weather the crisis. The World Bank also highlighted the need for an effective international response to the crisis, including an “ambitious” and “coordinated” global effort to
Crude Slide ContinuesCrude prices are continuing to push lower through the middle of the week with the futures market down almost 10% from recent highs. The move lower comes despite some positive signals in the trade war landscape recently with growing
In the US, the preliminary Q1 GDP is due for release this afternoon. Front-loading of imports ahead of the trade war pushed growth contribution from net exports deeply into negative territory, and we think GDP contracted by 0.1% q/q AR. Underlying private consumption growth likely remained steady ahead of the sharpest 'Liberation Day' tariff hikes. March PCE data and the Q1 Employment Cost Index will also be released at the same time but might gather less attention than usual given the focus on more timely data. Finally, ADP's private sector employment report will provide markets with the first sense of what to expect from the Friday's April Jobs Report.
. The economic calendar today goes straight into highest gear with GDP numbers in France this morning (printed in line with expectations), Germany and the euro area (expected at 0.2% q/q, 1.1% y/y). Those member states also release April inflation numbers. The ADP job report is due in the US and could show employment growth easing from 155k to 115k.