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Recession A recession is a period of reduced economic activity. It is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP). A recession is typically accompanied by a drop in the stock market, an increase in unemployment, and a decline in consumer spending. While recessions can be difficult for individuals and businesses, they are a normal part of the business cycle and are often followed by periods of economic growth.
ANZ Group's Richard Yetsenga anticipates a US economic slowdown in the latter half of the year, stopping short of a recession. Despite economists' bearish outlook, financial markets like the S&P and Nasdaq are performing well.
Swaminathan Aiyar suggests the Reserve Bank of India might lower interest rates. This decision hinges on a possible US recession. The US Federal Reserve's approach to inflation and interest rates could restrict the RBI's moves. Aiyar notes India has managed well with higher rates. Therefore, immediate cuts are not crucial.
The Federal Reserve’s latest stress tests show that the largest US banks could withstand a severe recession with plenty of capital, a result that could help the Trump administration's case for a wider deregulation of financial giants.
The third and semi-final revision to overall economic growth data for the first three months of 2025 are in, and depressing. Real GDP slowed year-on-year to less than +2.0% for the first time in nine quarters (back to Q-4 2022), and on a quarter-to-quarter annualized basis, was -0.5%. Despite the largest inventory draw-down since the…