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Unemployment is a major concern for many countries around the world. A country's unemployment rate is the percentage of its labor force that is without work but actively seeking it. It is an important economic indicator, as it provides an insight into the overall health of an economy. Here you will find news, articles, and videos about unemployment rates from around the world.
This week's most important macro release, the US September Jobs Report, is due at 14.30 CET. We forecast non-farm payrolls growth at +160k, slightly above consensus. We foresee average hourly earnings growth at +0.2% m/m SA and unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. A solid print in line with our call would ease the Fed's pressure for further large rate cuts. We still expect only 25bp reductions at the upcoming meetings.
US payrolls hit a home run. Literally every bit of the report was outright strong and topped estimates: from employment growth in the establishment survey over details in the household survey (used to calculate the unemployment rate) to upward revisions in previous reports. Starting with the job gains, they were a much bigger than expected 254k. That compares to the 150k median estimate and even crushed the most optimistic one of 220k. It coincided with a +72k revision of the previous two months.
Overall, this was a strong employment report. Not only did job gains come in well above expectations, but revisions also showed a stronger pace of hiring in prior months. For the third quarter, payrolls totaled 557k, up from Q2's gain of 442k.
Dollar surged across the board during early US trading after the all-around stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report. The data showed much higher-than-anticipated job growth, a slight decrease in unemployment rate, and an acceleration in wage growth. This robust set of figures has led traders to largely abandon bets on a 50bps rate cut by Fed in November. Fed funds futures now reflect nearly a 90% probability of a 25bps cut instead.
Surprise! The US economy added more than 250’000 new nonfarm jobs last month, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and wages grew faster than expected both on monthly and on a yearly basis. On a yearly basis, the US workers earned 4% more on average compared to a year ago. On top, the strikes at the US ports were paused until mid January and the goods are being moved until further notice.
In the US, the jobs report was much stronger than expected. Change in non-farm payrolls came in 254k (Danske forecast: 160k, consensus: 150k, prior 142k). Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% m/m seasonally adjusted (Danske forecast: 0.2%, consensus: 0.3%, prior: 0.4%). The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% (Danske forecast: 4.2%, consensus: 4.2%, prior: 4.2%. 2y UST yields surged more than 20bp while 10y UST yields traded more than 10bp higher. EUR/USD fell below 1.10 mark and ended Friday at 1.098. Markets pulled back from speculating in another 50bp cut from the Fed and are now very closely aligned with our call for both 2024 and 2025 in terms of Fed pricing.