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Nudge meets Edge: A Boxing Day Story | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
I happened to come acrossthis postfrom 2011 about an article from one of the Nudgelords promoting the ridiculous “traditional” idea of modeling risk aversion as “a primitive; each person had a parameter, gamma, that measured her degree of risk aversion.” That was before I had a full sense of how si
Coral reef update: University vindicates whistleblowers | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
In May 2021 we reported on acontroversy:Does ocean acidification alter fish behavior? Fraud allegations create a sea of doubt . . .[Biologist Philip] Munday has co-authored more than 250 papers and drawn scores of aspiring scientists to Townsville, a mecca of marine biology on Australia’s northeaste
(an issue raised by a recent failed-science story:) The distinction between research that could be valid but just happens to be wrong, and junk science that never had a chance | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Greg Meyer writes:An item perhaps of interestin regard to post-publication review, in this case in math/logic. A paper claimimg to prove a theorem posted posted online on 25 October in Studia Logica had its proof refuted in on 28 October in an online discussion at MathOverflow by David Roberts. The
A probability isn’t just a number; it’s part of a network of conditional statements | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
This came up awhile ago in comments, when Justinasked:Is p(aliens exist on Neptune that can rap battle) = .137 valid “probability” just because it satisfies mathematical axioms?And Martha sagelyreplied:“p(aliens exist on Neptune that can rap battle) = .137” in itself isn’t something that can satisfy
“Do Simpler Machine Learning Models Exist and How Can We Find Them?” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The above is the title of a talk by computer scientist Cynthia Rudin. here’s the abstract:While the trend in machine learning has tended towards building more complicated (black box) models, such models are not as useful for high stakes decisions – black box models have led to mistakes in bail and
Vladimir Putin (3) vs. Isaac Newton; Asimov advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Ethan arguesagainstthe former MVP:Pete Rose can’t get into the Hall of Fame. He shouldn’t get this gig as a consolation prize.Hey! Our seminar series is no “consolation prize”; it’s the real deal. For one thing, it’s right here in NYC, not in faraway Cooperstown.But Ben points out:He might be outt
I guess Gladwell couldn’t have afforded a fact-checker who could’ve told him that planes don’t take off in a tailwind. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Palko points tothisinteresting article by Emma Copley Eisenberg on fact checking.Academic books and articles don’t get fact checked—in my experience, they don’t get edited at all, except formostly-useless copy editing—but once I wrote an article for the (online) New Yorker and it got fact checked, w
A need for “Poli Sci 101”? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
There’s this thing where economists get frustrated when non-economists write about economics without understanding various basic “Econ 101” ideas.I don’t think there’s any comparable ideas called “Poli Sci 101,” but maybe there should be, because often I see non-political-scientists exhibiting funda
Pete Rose (2) vs. Isaac Asimov; Lisa advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Raghudisagreeswith my claim that bedtime books don’t work, and he suggests Matthew Walker as an adjudicator for a possible debate on the topic. I suppose that Walker would be unseeded in the “disgraced scientists” category—he can’t really compete with the Pizzagate guy, the Harvard primatologist, t
Signal-to-noise ratio and statistical tests | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Thomas Langkamp writes:I posteda question on the binomial teston the cross-validated forum. Surprisingly nombody seems to have an answer or even a suggestion. Maybe you can share your thoughts?Here’s Langkamp’s question:How to calculate the Signal-to-Noise-Ratio (SNR) for the classic / frequentist
Another physically motivated sampler: Microcanonical HMC | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
This time it’s astrophysicists rather than quantum physicists getting in on the sampling action.Microcanonical HMCUroš Seljak, an astrophysics professor at UC Berkeley, and collaborators developed a form of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling with an alternative approach to energy related to unde
Uncertainties regarding historical facts | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Sean Manningwrites:I [Manning] don’t know what to do about the gap between popularization-as-entertainment and technical debates inside fields. . . . Many people seem to misunderstand what historians do, even if they are interested in history. Over onAndrew Gelman’s blog, I found people saying thing
James Dean (2) vs. Lisa Lisa; Brown advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Manuelproposes:In the best Dodo spirit, both Carroll and Brown should advance. But who is to decide the advances? Why, you, of course. Advances! Advances!But as Ethan points out, only one person can advance.Raghu proposes to break the tie:My wife points out that it has to be Carroll, because we don’
Statistical experiments and science experiments | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The other day we hada discussionabout a study whose conclusion was that observational studies provide insufficient evidence regarding the effects of school mask mandates on pediatric covid-19 cases.My reaction was:For the next pandemic, I guess much will depend on a better understanding of how the d
Lewis Carroll (3) vs. Margaret Wise Brown; McQueen advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Most ofyesterday’sdiscussion concerned not Steve McQueen’s movies or Vidkun Quisling’s war activities, but Martha Stewart’s taxes.Unfortunately it seems that neither McQueen nor Quisling has had any tax problems. All we got in the comments is this from Jonathan:The definitive Quisling biography was
The conspiracy theory / pseudoscience culture | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Jason Colavito writes:Next month Graham Hancock is getting a splashy eight-episode Netflix series to present his false claim that a lost Atlantis-like civilization was destroyed by a comet at the end of the last Ice Age. The series is dishonestly framed around the notion of Hancock as a truth-teller
Steve McQueen (4) vs. Vidkun Quisling; Sendak advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Ethan writes:In this MS vs MS matchup I can’t imagine enjoying Stewart. I doubt she’d talk about her time in jail, just use the seminar to push her latest venture.Actually, Martha talking about her jail time is something I woudn’t want to hear. Some redemption story about how she found serenity in
“Lack of correlation between school mask mandates and paediatric COVID-19 cases in a large cohort” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Ambarish Chandra writes:Last year you postedan email from me, regarding my attempts to replicate and extend a CDC study.It’s taken a long time but I’m happy to report that my replication and extension havefinally been publishedin the Journal of Infection.The article, by Chandra and Tracy Høeg, is ca
Research fellow, postdoc, and doctoral student positions at Aalto University, Finland | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
We’re looking forresearch fellows, postdocs, and doctoral studentsfor projects inBayesian workflows for iterative model building and networks of models(Proj. 7, Aalto University)Evaluating and improving posterior inference for difficult posteriors(Proj. F9, FCAI/Aalto/Helsinki with Prof. Arto Klami)
It can be hard to get the data from a published study. Here are 2 frustrating examples: | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
In comments to a recent post, Unanonwrote:I [Unanon] don’t understand the difficulty in getting vaccine data. A lot of posters and readers in this blog are affiliated with universities—prominent ones, at that. Also, it looks like Pfizer has a decent track record in sharing their clinical trial data:
Martha Stewart (1) vs. Maurice Sendak; Stigler advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Hiroakiwrites:Judas could talk about pretty much anything he wants? And, I wonder what he would talk about if he were invited on Christmas Day.Good Friday or Easter would be better, no? In any case, we never have seminars on Christmas or Easter, and in the modern university you’ll rarely see any ma
The easygoing relationship between computer scientists and null hypothesis significance testing | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
This is Jessica. As you might expect, as a professor in a computer science department I spend a lot of time around computer scientists. As someone who is probably more outward looking than the average faculty member, there are things I like about CS, like the emphasis on getting the abstractions rig
Update 4 – World Cup Qatar 2022 predictions (semifinals and winning probabilities) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Time for our last update! Qatar 2022 World Cup is progressing fast, and only four teams – Argentina, France, Croatia and Morocco – are still in contention for the final victory.Who will be the winner on December 18th?Is our model better than thePaul the Octopus, an almost perfect oracle during World
What is the original source of the bulls-eye graphs that represent bias and variance? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
You’ve all seen those bulls-eye pictures representing bias and variance (see for examplethe wikipedia page). Where did this come from? I’m writing an article where I want to cite the idea and I’m not sure where to look. It’s a pretty natural idea but it must come from somewhere, right?
Malcolm X (3) vs. Kris Kristofferson; Didion advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
I thoughtyesterdaywould be the battle of two powerhouses, but it turned out not to be even close.Jonathan recommended J. K. for the entertainment value:Inviting JK Rowling would form an excellent test of Columbia Security staff and the university’s commitment to free speech principles. Pick her, and
Hey, what happened with this randomized controlled trial of “How to talk so kids will listen and listen so kids will talk”? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Regular readers of this blog will know thatone of my favorite books everis “How to talk so kids will listen and listen so kids will talk,” by Adele Faber and Elaine Mazlish. Here’s how I described it a few years ago:I read this book long before I had kids—it’s incredibly helpful for interactions wi
BridgeStan: Stan model log densities, gradients, Hessians, and transforms in R, Python, and Julia | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
We’re happy to announce the official 1.0.0 release ofBridgeStan.What is BridgeStan?From the documentation:BridgeStan provides efficient in-memory access through Python, Julia, and R to the methods of a Stan model, including log densities, gradients, Hessians, and constraining and unconstraining tran
Laura Ingalls Wilder (4) vs. Banksy; Malcolm advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Raghuwrites:On the rare occasions when I hear the name Kris Kristofferson, I think of the teen hip hop duo Kris Kross, best known (only known?) for the terrible song “Jump,” which I remember because it interrupted videos I would have rather been watching on ~1990 MTV. Anything that makes me think of
“Scientifical Americans: The Culture of Amateur Paranormal Research” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Sean Manning writes:As I re-readyour poston “Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science” from 2020, I think you might get something out of Sharon A. Hill’sbook, “Scientifical Americans: The Culture of Amateur Paranormal Research.” She was involved in the skeptic movement until around 2010.I [Manning]
PPNAS! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
4 different people pointed me tothis articleby biologist Elisabeth Bik about a distressing problem in biology research where published articles include fraudulent images created by photoshopping and similar techniques.It kinda makes me wonder: when scientists commit out-and-out fraud, what are they
Judas (1) vs. Steve Stigler; Wilder advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Raghusummarizesthe offerings:This is a tough one, since either of these would be great.Banksy’s “Exit Through the Gift Shop” movie, by the way, is excellent, the (probably) true story of a man who videotapes street artists (including Banksy) at work and then shamelessly promotes himself as an artist
Has the science public relations machine improved? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The above is not a rhetorical question.I’ve not ever formally studied science communication, so it’s hard for me to say. I’d be interested in hearing what people have found in this area.The question came to me because I recently happened to run intothis post from 2010, titled “Of psychology researc
On the Republicans’ decision to choose extremist candidates in high-profile close races | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
I’mpointing you to this post from last monthas it’s relevant to yesterday’s election in Georgia.Ok, did you follow the above link and read last month’s post? Good. Now for the update (which isn’t really an update, just a reinforcement) after yesterday’s election:Paul Campostalks aboutthe related i
Successful randomization and covariate “imbalance” in a survey experiment in Nature | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Last yearI wroteabout the value of testing observable consequences of a randomized experiment having occurred as planned. For example, if the randomization was supposedly Bernoulli(1/2), you can check that the number of units in treatment and control in the analytical sample isn’t so inconsistent wi
A homework question in someone’s 11th grade statistics class | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Someone who wishes to wishes to remain anonymous writes:My son is in 11th grade. Below you’ll find a HW question which was given in my son’s statistics class. How would you answer?Ummmm, it’s hard to read that so let me retype it:A large university emailed a questionnaire to a randomly selected sa
OpenAI’s GPT chat bot enters the uncanny valley | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The baseline: Shannon (1948)The first attempt at computer generation of human language of which I’m aware was by Claude Shannon in his seminal 1948 paper,A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Not only did this paper introduce the entire field of information theory, it also applied a notion of pos
When conclusions are unverifiable (multilevel data example) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
A. B. Siddique, Y. Jamshidi-Naeini, L. Golzarri-Arroyo, and D. B. Allisonwrite:Ignoring Clustering and Nesting in Cluster Randomized Trials Renders Conclusions UnverifiableSiraneh et al conducted a clustered randomized controlled trial (cRCT) to test the effectiveness of additional counseling and so
Joseph Heller (2) vs. Benedict Arnold; Rigg advances | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Manuel gives the straight-up case for the TV star:Diana Rigg’s daughter remembered her deceased mother in The Guardian and described her as: famous, beautiful, a star, courageous, truth-teller, naughty, fun, curious, a prodigious reader, self-educated, cocktail inventor, and stoic (among other thing