This came up awhile ago in comments, when Justinasked:Is p(aliens exist on Neptune that can rap battle) = .137 valid “probability” just because it satisfies mathematical axioms?And Martha sagelyreplied:“p(aliens exist on Neptune that can rap battle) = .137” in itself isn’t something that can satisfy

Andrew Gelman

24.12.2022

(an issue raised by a recent failed-science story:) The distinction between research that could be valid but just happens to be wrong, and junk science that never had a chance | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Greg Meyer writes:An item perhaps of interestin regard to post-publication review, in this case in math/logic. A paper claimimg to prove a theorem posted posted online on 25 October in Studia Logica had its proof refuted in on 28 October in an online discussion at MathOverflow by David Roberts. The

Andrew Gelman

25.12.2022

Coral reef update: University vindicates whistleblowers | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

In May 2021 we reported on acontroversy:Does ocean acidification alter fish behavior? Fraud allegations create a sea of doubt . . .[Biologist Philip] Munday has co-authored more than 250 papers and drawn scores of aspiring scientists to Townsville, a mecca of marine biology on Australia’s northeaste

Andrew Gelman

26.12.2022

Nudge meets Edge: A Boxing Day Story | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

I happened to come acrossthis postfrom 2011 about an article from one of the Nudgelords promoting the ridiculous “traditional” idea of modeling risk aversion as “a primitive; each person had a parameter, gamma, that measured her degree of risk aversion.” That was before I had a full sense of how si

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Andrew Gelman

Economy

A probability isn’t just a number; it’s part of a network of conditional statements | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

(an issue raised by a recent failed-science story:) The distinction between research that could be valid but just happens to be wrong, and junk science that never had a chance | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Coral reef update: University vindicates whistleblowers | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Nudge meets Edge: A Boxing Day Story | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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Andrew Gelman