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The 18th century French enlightenment writer Voltaire once said, “If you wish to converse with me, define your terms,” and we need to approach transformation with a similar mindset. Some transformations require changes in investments, while others require changes in behaviors and these have very different challenges. Until fairly recently, our economy was based on atoms and transformations were usually focused on strategic decisions such as building a new factory, entering a new market or launching a new product line. These types of decisions fall squarely within the authority of senior managers and rarely inspire much internal resistance. It is to communicate clearly at every stage so that the rest of the organization can effectively align. However, when a transformation is focused on changing behaviors, leaders should expect significant resistance. With these types of transformational programs, early alignment is not possible and leaders need to form a coalition. It’s important to start slowly, identify people who are enthusiastic about the change, want it to succeed and focus on an early keystone change to gain traction, before the project can accelerate. What leaders need to recognize is that the vast majority of transformations today are not strategic and consensus-driven, but focused on shifting behaviors and coalition-driven. Over-communicating can provoke early resistance and will likely undermine what you’re trying to achieve. Decades of research shows that people adopt behaviors that they see working for people around them, not those they just hear about or that are dictated to them from above. So the first thing you need to ask before undertaking any transformational effort is whether the goal is to change a strategic asset or to shift behaviors. The answer will determine how you need to move forward.
Bent Flyvbjerg, author of How Big Things Get Done, frequently highlights the planning fallacy as a key reason why projects go awry. We tend to trust too much in our plans, often underestimating setbacks and complications. This issue becomes even more pronounced in change initiatives, where the change itself can provoke resistance, creating additional obstacles that slow progress. The truth is that things that change the world always arrive out of context, for the simple reason that the world hasn’t changed yet. Samuel Adams starts a Committee of Correspondence in Boston. Five kids meet in a cafe in Belgrade. At first, few noticed. But connections were forged and networks began to expand. What people do notice is when an event triggers a moment of opportunity. Shots are fired in Lexington, a tyrant attempts to steal an election, an innocent is killed or some other injustice is perpetrated. That’s when it shows whether you’ve put in the work when it really mattered, long before the issue was on most people’s radar, when the groundwork needs to be done. When that moment happens, it’s already too late. We know from centuries of history as well as decades of research that change follows an s-curve. It starts out slowly and then, if the ground has been prepared, it can accelerate exponentially. But you need to start building networks long before, when nobody is watching and there is no credit to claim. That’s what makes the difference between a movement that succeeds and those countless others that catch some limelight, make a little noise and then sputter out and fade away into obscurity. And when that happens, many will throw up their hands and complain that nothing ever changes
The global activist Srdja Popović once told me that the goal of a revolution should be to become mainstream, to be mundane and ordinary. If you are successful it should be difficult to explain what was won because the previous order seems so unbelievable. Yet many leaders approach change initiatives as if they were swashbuckling heroes in their own action movie. The simple truth is that every change initiative starts out weak and vulnerable, without an internal track record of success. People are bound to be suspicious. They already have everyday struggles and don’t want someone else’s idea to add to their burden. Most often, they’ll nod their head, pay lip service, take a “wait and see” approach and then turn away at the first sign of trouble. To create genuine transformation we need to get out of the business of selling ideas and into the business of selling success. That can’t be done through persuasion, we have to start by identifying people who are already enthusiastic about change. Change isn’t about communication, but empowerment and the best way to empower is to give people resources with which they can pursue their own goals and dreams. If we can help allies to make change successful, even on a small scale, they can bring in others who bring in others still. The best way to do that is to design a resource that is both accessible and impactful, which people can co-opt to further ambitions and goals they pursue for their own reasons, even if those are different from your own.
We often see events as decisive. A road forks and it feels like our fate has been set. Yet that’s rarely ever true. There will be more forks ahead that represent new possibilities. When times seem bleak, it’s crucial to remember this and focus on preparing for those future moments, so you’re ready to seize the opportunities they bring. I remember moving to Poland in 1997, shortly after the Berlin Wall had fallen. The Cold War was had ended, capitalism and democracy had emerged victorious. There was a sense of triumph in the air. The future felt not just bright but assured. Across Eastern Europe, people were embracing newfound freedom and prosperity. It seemed inevitable that this model was the path everyone would aspire to follow. Yet, many twists and turns lay ahead. There would be the 1998 Ruble Crisis, the Color Revolutions of the early 2000s, Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Each came with their own triumphs and heartaches, but none were decisive—there was always another chapter waiting to unfold. I was honored to have played a small role in these events and fortunate to know others who played far larger ones. One key lesson I learned is that the most effective people are always preparing for the next trigger—an unforeseen event that could shift the landscape in their favor —in order to be ready when the winds of fortune turned more favorable. So that’s what I try to do when things are bleak. That’s the discipline I try to build. When things don’t go your way and you feel like you’ve been knocked to the ground, lay down there for a moment, focus on the foundational ideas and values that make the fight important to you in the first place, and then return to the fray with renewed vigor.