AsPaul Krugmannotes,“[Chinese President] Xi has abruptly ended his signature “zero Covid” policy, withall indicationspointing to a huge surge in hospitalizations and deaths that will stress health care to the breaking point; the Chinese economy seems set to face major problems over the next two or t

Econbrowser

26.12.2022

The Wisconsin Outlook: The State Follows the Nation | Econbrowser

From the NovemberWisconsin Economic Outlook(released December 13):IHS Markit is forecasting a mild recession that starts in the last quarter of 2022 and lasts until the first half of 2023. The forecast expects real GDP to grow 1.8% in 2022 followed by a small decline of 0.2% in 2023, and modest grow

Econbrowser

26.12.2022

Maximum AUROC Spreads as of 12/25/2022: Recession Ahead, and If So, When? | Econbrowser

In 2019, Fed economistDavid Millerundertook a comprehensive assessment of term spread predictive power for recessions (There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions). For the 1984-2018 period, he found the following:Figure 2: AUROC Sample 1984 – 2018 fromMiller (2019).For a discussion of AUROC (Ar

Econbrowser

27.12.2022

Chinese GDP Growth over the Xi Jinping Era | Econbrowser

Over this period, growth has generally surprised on the downside.Here is GDP expressed in constant 2015CNY, along with IMFWorld Economic OutlookOctober forecasts.Figure 1:Chinese GDP from October 2022 WEO (black), October 2022 forecast (gray-blue), October 2021 forecast (red), October 2019 forecast

home›Econbrowser

Econbrowser

Economy

The Coming Macro Shock of 2023: China | Econbrowser

The Wisconsin Outlook: The State Follows the Nation | Econbrowser

Maximum AUROC Spreads as of 12/25/2022: Recession Ahead, and If So, When? | Econbrowser

Chinese GDP Growth over the Xi Jinping Era | Econbrowser

home
›
Econbrowser