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A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 2 – In the Long Run
Macro Letter - No 137 A Review of Stock Market Valuations - Part 2 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubbleShorter-term indicators suggest the markets have run ahead of fundamentalsExpectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic remain keyEven a slight moderation of fiscal and monetary expansion could…
First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator – In the Long Run
Macro Letter – No 138 – 21-05-2021 First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator China was the first country to recover from the Covid-19 pandemicThe PBoC began tightening monetary conditions in May 2020Chinese housing and stocks remain strong despite official policyChinese contagion remains a risk to the global recovery Whilst there are…
A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 1 – In the Long Run
Source: Peter Boockvar, Pinnacle Data, Haver Analytics, Citi Macro Letter - No 136 – 19-02-2021 A Review of Stock Market Valuations - Part 1 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubbleLonger-term indicators present mixed signals about valuationExpectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic are keyA recovery in…
US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 – In the Long Run
Macro Letter - No 135 - 31-12-2020 US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 2020 has been a torrid year for stock markets globallyFiscal and monetary stimulus rescued investors from a brutal bear-marketDigital transformation has accelerated and fortunes of the technology sector with itWith mass-vaccination still some way off, 2021 will see many…
Digital Currencies and US Dollar Dominance – In the Long Run
I published this essay at the end of last year but as Cryptocurrencies and Digital Asset gain further prominence, I take the liberty of sharing once more. Central Bank Digital Currencies will be the next 'innovation' but we may see money, traditionally a store of value and a means of exchange, become either one or…
Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip? – In the Long Run
During the last three months inflation has become a much debated topic. This article, which was published in March, may still add something to the increasingly heated debate: - Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip? https://www.aier.org/article/inflationary-inflection-point-or-temporary-blip/
The Fiscal Centralization of Europe Will Not End Well – In the Long Run
With another $1.9trln of US fiscal relief set to be voted through, attention is likely to switch back to Europe. This article from August 2020 seems relevant to the debate. https://www.aier.org/article/the-fiscal-centralization-of-europe-will-not-end-well/
Commodities, Supply-chains and Structural Changes in Demand – In the Long Run
Macro Letter – No 139 – 18-06-2021 Commodities, Supply-chains and Structural Changes in Demand Talk of a new commodity super-cycle may be prematureOnce GDP growth returns to trend, commodity demand will moderateFiscal and monetary relief are key to maintaining growth and demandStructural changes in energy demand will prove more persistent As the spectre of inflation…