Macro Letter - No 137 A Review of Stock Market Valuations - Part 2 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubbleShorter-term indicators suggest the markets have run ahead of fundamentalsExpectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic remain keyEven a slight moderation of fiscal and monetary expansion could…

In the Long Run

29.11.2022

First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator – In the Long Run

Macro Letter – No 138 – 21-05-2021 First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator China was the first country to recover from the Covid-19 pandemicThe PBoC began tightening monetary conditions in May 2020Chinese housing and stocks remain strong despite official policyChinese contagion remains a risk to the global recovery Whilst there are…

In the Long Run

29.11.2022

US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 – In the Long Run

Macro Letter - No 135 - 31-12-2020 US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 2020 has been a torrid year for stock markets globallyFiscal and monetary stimulus rescued investors from a brutal bear-marketDigital transformation has accelerated and fortunes of the technology sector with itWith mass-vaccination still some way off, 2021 will see many…

In the Long Run

29.11.2022

Debt or Taxes – In the Long Run

With a new administration installed in the US and a $1.9trln relief package approved, attention has now turned to how this fiscal largesse will be paid for. I thought this article from September 2020 might add to the debate. https://www.aier.org/article/debt-or-taxes/

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In the Long Run

Economy

A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 2 – In the Long Run

First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator – In the Long Run

US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 – In the Long Run

Debt or Taxes – In the Long Run

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In the Long Run