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It is a lack of economic growth that has put France in its fiscal quagmire | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
It is a theme of these times that we see Western governments struggling. We started the week with the effective appointment of a new Japanese Prime Minister and we also had the fall of a French Prime Minister accompanied by a desperate attempts by Prime Minister Macron to keep him. The reality according to the…
Japan gets ready for Abenomics 2.0 from Takaichi san | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Over the weekend an event we had been expecting in Japan arrived although as you can see many were rather wrong-footed. apan just shocked the world. Sanae Takaichi is now Prime Minister, Japan’s first-ever female leader and she’s coming in swinging with huge stimulus plans. Markets are ripping and investors everywhere are bracing for what…
Stagnant economic growth in the Euro area makes me wonder what happened to the Draghi Plan? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought us more information on the Euro area economy and from an indicator we know that ECB policymakers look at closely. Eurozone growth ticks up once again but remains muted. That is something that is a theme here as maybe thee is some growth but not much which is reinforced by the…
Do stablecoins and crypto benefit the US economy and dollar? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
In these strange times we have something that has become rather familiar over the years which is a US government shut down. It has become like a piece of performance art where the players talk about reducing government spending and then increase the debt ceiling and go back to spending ever more. So it is…
The Bank of England makes the case for interest-rate cuts | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today I thought I would look at the case for interest-rate cuts in the UK as presented by the Bank of England. There should be no surprise that Swati Dhingra is in the van of this and here she is from the weekend in the Evening Standard. Actually the Evening Standard is a curious thing…
The UK looks to be mired in inflation whilst the Bank of England is in denial | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Sometimes you get sea changes in an economic perspective and my home country the UK is in one of those phases. What I mean by that is we have returned to what was my first ever theme on here which is that the UK is a nation prone to inflation. In this specific phase we…
The UK is in hock to the bond markets because we have chosen fiscal stimulus via borrowing | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This is a phase where we are receiving quite a lot of economic news for the UK. It should be calm waters in the sense of a government with a large majority but it is not like that. Plus before I get to the challenger there was a serious issue that is likely to be…
Higher UK inflation is the fault of both the Bank of England and Chancellor Rachel Reeves | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
My home country the UK is exhibiting quite a few of my economic themes at the moment and we can start with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He was interviewed by West Midlands Life on Wednesday so we can start with a positive in that he got out of the City of London. But…
Switzerland edges closer to negative interest-rates | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
One of the most famous lines in cinema is when Arnold Schwarzenegger in his role as The Terminator says "I'll be back" I have had that feeling about negative interest-rates all through the claims by central bankers that they are now valiant inflation fighters. This morning we edged nearer although not literally. The Swiss National…
At least the problems created by Bank of England QE and QT are beginning to be debated | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today's subject is a welcome one in that it is something that in terms of the mainstream media has been hidden in the shadows. In fact I am being polite as they have looked the other way from what is rather a scandal. In a nutshell the Bank of England decided to buy UK government…
The Riksbank claims inflation is transitory again and cuts interest-rates | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought something which I thought was pretty much inevitable in these times so let us get straight to it. From the Riksbank of Sweden. To provide further support to economic activity and to stabilise inflation at the target in the medium term, the Executive Board has decided to cut the policy rate…
Argentina is in the midst of yet another Peso crisis | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This week has opened with a lot of concern for the economy of Argentina as you can see from this via the Buenos Aires Times. Argentine leader Javier Milei announced plans to meet President Donald Trump in New York on Tuesday after hinting his country is in negotiations to halt a market sell-off and avoid…
The UK has lost control of fiscal policy | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
The last 24 hours have seen pressure reapplied to the UK government bond market as in an accident of timing the it has been hit twice in two days. We can start with a move from the Bank of England yesterday. At this meeting, the MPC had voted to reduce the stock of UK government…
The US Federal Reserve abandons inflation targeting again | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Yesterday evening bought an example of one of the main themes I have about central banks. That has been that they respond much more quickly to fears about economic weakness than inflation rising in a clear example of assymetry. In fact these phases show a clear abandonment of the inflation target as they switch to…
UK Inflation again poses a warning to the Bank of England | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought a further reminder of one of my themes from the past which is that the UK has a tendency to be an inflation nation. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to August 2025, unchanged from July.On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3% in August…
The UK Labour Market is continuing to slow | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought us up to date with the latest official figures on the UK labour market and we can start with this. Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 142,000 (0.5%) between July 2024 and July 2025, and by 6,000 (0.0%) between June 2025 and July 2025.......The early estimate of payrolled…
France sees a debt downgrade that is still well behind market pricing. | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This week has opened with some sobering news for La Belle France as late on Friday we were told this. Fitch Ratings - Frankfurt am Main - 12 Sep 2025: FitchRatings has downgraded France's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'A+' from 'AA-'. The Outlook is Stable. This is hardly a surprise as we…
UK GDP and inflation expectations numbers suggest we are mired in stagflation | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today's economic data for the UK opens by rather emphasising yesterday's subject and why Prime Minister Kier Starmer is not only putting more emphasis on economic growth he is rather sidelining his Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Monthly GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2025, following growth of 0.4% in June 2025 and…
A “Budget Board” is not a policy for UK economic growth | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This has not been a good week for the UK government and its plans for economic growth. US drugmaker Merck has scrapped a £1bn London research centre and will lay off more than 100 scientific staff, as the industry accuses ministers of making the UK uncompetitive and paying too little for medicines. ( Financial Times)…
The US money supply does not back the case for interest-rate cuts | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Over the last week or so we have seen quite a change in the economic data coming out of the US in an area the Federal Reserve looks at closely. Yesterday saw this from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy added 911,000 fewer jobs (or -0.6% of total employment) than initially reported during the…
Argentina faces problems with both trade and financial markets | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
It is time to take another look at the economy of Argentina, partly because people have been asking me and partly because yesterday brought some developments. Argentina’s stocks, bonds and currency tumbled on Monday after President Javier Milei’s party lost by a landslide in elections for the country’s largest province, ahead of midterm national polls…
Could Japan return to the negative interest-rates and QQE of Abenomics? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Just when we thought that today would be about the French vote of confidence Japan has rather stepped forward. Along the way it has confirmed one of my themes as it received some better economic news. Japan’s economy expanded in the three months through June, the government confirmed in a revised report, as data for…
The Office for National Statistics finally agree I was right to challenge their seasonal adjustments | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
As we arrive at the end of the week the UK economy has received a welcome boost. Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.6% in July 2025, following an increase of 0.3% in June 2025. So a rise and more than expectations. Investing.com -- British retail sales increased more than expected in…
The interest-rate and bond yield falls in China may create another Carry Trade | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
As this week has progressed with the Western Capitalist Imperialists struggling with rising bond yields China can afford a wry smile. We noted the all-time lows being seen as its benchmark 10 year yield went below 2% as autumn turned to winter last year. Well now it is 1.75% as those invested in Chinese government…
Gold and Silver step forwards in response to all the fiscal deficits | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
It is time once again to take a look at the situation regarding precious metals and let me open by congratulating Gold Bugs. BREAKING: Gold officially hits $3,600/oz for the first time in history. Gold is now up +33% YTD, more than 3.5 TIMES the S&P 500’s return. ( The Kobeissi Letter) In fact we…
Why are bond yields spiking like this and what are the implications? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today there is a clear economic topic and we have been on the case for a while now as it has built up. Although in general there has been media silence on the issue as they seem to be like our political class living in a world where interest-rates remain low. We can start in…
The Bank of England has struggled to get mortgage rates lower in spite of Bank Rate cuts | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning the focus is back on the Bank of England and we cam start with something which will match the new autumnal mood for the weather at least for the research student presenting the morning meeting. “August saw a slight softening in the rate of annual house price growth to 2.1%, from 2.4% in…
The ECB finds itself under pressure on several fronts at once | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
As I wrote the headline to this piece I was thinking to myself isn't it always? Then maybe always is a bit overstating it as there was the "Euro boom" of 2017/18, but most of the time. One concern relates to my subject of Tuesday as I increasingly wonder at what level the ECB would…
How can the UK fix its fiscal problem? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought another attempt by the UK government to find a way of raising taxation to help reduce the fiscal deficit it is running. Or rather we are in a phase of the mythical bond vigilantes applying pressure via news like this. Yield on 30-year UK gilts – a benchmark for the cost…
It is good to hear a Bank of England policymaker worried about inflation persistence | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Last night Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann gave a speech at the Bank of Mexico. So the contradictions start as we wonder how such an enthusiastic climate change warrior made her way to Mexico? That rather feeds into another part of the daily economic news in the UK as the energy regulator Ofgem has…
France is a case of weak economic growth and an inability to cut government spending | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has revived a topic that had gone quiet for a while and so let me hand you over to Le Monde. François Bayrou has chosen not to endure political instability but to precipitate it in order to better extricate himself from it. On Monday, August 25, the Prime Minister announced that a vote of…
UK GDP surprises after strong reported growth for June | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought us up to date on the UK economy and the headline is good news. UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, following an increase of 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025. So if we switch to the…
Why have long-term bond yields risen so much? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
At the end of last week something happened in my home country the UK which has become familiar in that the bond market came under pressure again. The headline act was towards the longer end as the 30-year yield rose to 5.57%. The UK 30-Year Gilt yield increased by 14 basis points over the week,…
Official UK Labour Market data remains in quite a mess | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought us up to date on the latest UK employment and labourmarket statistics and the most timely one will have been accompanied by a sigh of relief from HM Treasury and Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The early estimate of payrolled employees for July 2025 decreased by 164,000 (0.5%) on the year, and by…
Why is the ECB planning to speed up the Digital Euro? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has opened with a couple of my themes in play so please put on your seat belts. We can start with the more minor one and we see something I have warned about for a while. WIESBADEN – Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to…
China again panics over its lack of consumption problem | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today we need to look East again as the main economic news has come from China and it feeds straight into our main economic theme for it. Yet again we see what the economics textbooks see as a strength can have consequences which erode that strength. the Ministry of Finance, together with the People's Bank…
Japan is in the middle of a soft default via inflation | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
After looking at China a couple of days ago it is again time to look East to Nihon this time. We can start with the latest economic news. TOKYO -- Japan's economy grew an annualized 1.0% in the April-to-June quarter from the previous three months, according to preliminary government figures released Friday, avoiding a second…
UK Public-Sector borrowing remains a serious problem | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
After yesterday's disappointing economic news from the UK we can start today with a better headline. Borrowing - the difference between total public sector spending and income - was £1.1 billion in July 2025; this was £2.3 billion less than in July 2024 and the lowest July borrowing for three years. So we have a much…
The UK has an inflation problem again | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
I am glad that I looked at things in an optimistic light yesterday because the news from the UK this morning heads towards the other end of the spectrum. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to July 2025, up from 3.6% in the 12 months to June. So we…
Some good news for the UK on GDP and Solar Power | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought some welcome news for the UK as we learn that our official statisticians have been busy and produced this. Overall, the changes in this blue book raise the level of nominal GDP over the time period, with the level now estimated to be 1.5% higher in 2023, where changes have fed…