News
Entertainment
Science & Technology
Life
Culture & Art
Hobbies
News
Entertainment
Science & Technology
Culture & Art
Hobbies
December was a bad month for UK Public Finances with spending rising | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning we have been updated about the UK Public Finances. These are important at the moment on several fronts. The reality is that the UK was fiscally spendthrift under the previous government. This has been followed by a new government which increased borrowing in its October Budget. Plus we have in the New Year…
UK Unemployment rises and remember the employment tax rises are yet to come | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning brought us up to date with the latest news on the UK labour market. With the recent rise in employment taxes in the Budget from Chancellor Rachel Reeves most eyes will have been attracted to this bit. The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.4% in…
The Bank of Japan is not as keen to raise interest-rates as many think | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Last week was one dominated by views on future interest-rates as we saw bond markets follow the nursery rhyme about the Grand Old Duke of York. He marched his men ( bond yields) to the top of the hill on Monday and Tuesday and then he marched them down again. In my home country the…
The UK looks set to try and ramp house prices again | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
We are in that part of the month which is packed with UK economic news and today is the turn of the official retail sales numbers. Retail sales volumes (quantity bought) are estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in December 2024, following a small rise of 0.1% in November 2024 (revised down from 0.2% in…
Underlying UK economic growth falls to zero | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Yesterday brought some better news for the UK on the inflation front and today brought some better news on the monthly economic growth front. Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in November 2024 largely because of a growth in services, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October…
Better news for UK inflation comes with cost of living concerns | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
It has been a tough run for the UK economy with economic growth stalling and bond yields rising. So this morning's news on inflation was rather welcome as it brought some better news. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.5% in the 12 months to December 2024, down from 2.6% in the 12 months…
The Bank of England finds itself in the eye of a storm it helped create | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Yesterday one of my main themes attracted a fair bit of attention on social media and it relates to the Bank of England. It started when I pointed this out. Rumours that the Bank of England will cancel todays Gilt auction to relieve pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves have proven false as it is on…
The ECB wants to cut interest-rates further but that comes with risks for both the Euro and inflation | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
As we start a new week it is time to note that the Euro area and indeed the ECB are being rather buffeted around by the return of the bond vigilantes. Let me bring us right up to date with this from a few minutes ago. FED FUND FUTURES SHOW TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE…
The US is also facing higher bond yields and mortgage rates | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today we switch emphasis to the US on what is non-farm payrolls day. But as so often these days we see clear examples of political incompetence. The TV news is filled with pictures of the awful wildfires in parts of California leaving is to mull the wisdom of this. Before wildfires broke out across Los Angeles, the city's…
How has the UK found itself in another financial crisis? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning finds the UK in another financial crisis. This reminds me that one of my credit crunch themes is that crises come around a lot more often than they used to. In fact they feel like almost a permanent state of life. They also involve the establishment telling us it is unexpected when in…
The central banks QE operations are the worst bond trade of all time | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This year has started with bond markets under more pressure and with yields rising. Along the way that confirms my theme that western nations have been fiscally profligate something which was juiced by the way that central bank QE bond purchases suppressed yields during the Covid pandemic. Indeed we had the extraordinary appearance of negative…
The UK economy has started 2025 with stagflation on the march | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
As the UK has moved into 2025 the economic news has not been good. Official statistics by their very nature are always behind the times. But the latest monthly GDP figures for September and October both showed 0.1% declines and that followed a third quarter for 2024 which was revised down to 0% growth. So…
Chinese economic policy continues to turn Japanese | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning economic eyes are again looking East. Let us start with this from the Financial Times. China’s regulators sought to reassure markets on Monday as equities and the renminbi extended losses in a rocky start to the year, following weak economic data and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. The Financial Times seems…
The UK opens 2025 with the risks being recession and stagflation | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today the emphasis switches to the UK and in a way the position is summed up by the Financial Times with this. The survey of 96 leading economists found that, although the UK is likely to outperform France and Germany in 2025, previously announced increases in taxes on businesses and individuals could undermine jobs and…
The Euro area starts the year with more bad economic news | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Welcome back and a Happy New Year to you all. Moving onto today's topic there is even a Happy New Year message from ECB President Christine Lagarde on its social media channels. Although tucked away in it was something rather ominous. Another significant development on the horizon is our digital Euro. I see this as…
2024 has been the year when central banks lost control of interest-rates | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
As we arrive at Christmas Eve and the end of my blogging year we see that the main economic themes of 2024 are still in play. Let me start with one that as we came into the year looked if we use modern language that it was like, over. Since September, the ten-year Treasury bond…
The outlook for the UK economy has turned to worries about recession and stagflation | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
As we arrive in Christmas week we find that the data on the UK economy is sending a rather unseasonal message. Here is the official release from earlier. UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024, revised down from the first estimate increase…
The trajectory for the UK Public Finances is a cause for concern | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought us up to date on an area that is an increasing concern for the UK which is the level of public-sector borrowing. This is on several levels. Firstly we had all the Covid era borrowing which at the time was juiced by the Bank of England as it drove UK bond…
The path for interest-rates in 2025 was raised quite a bit by the Federal Reserve last night | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Last night or evening if you prefer saw rather a change in expected policy from the US Federal Reserve and it immediately echoed around financial markets. Indian rupee falls to a record low of 85 per US dollar ( @business) Brazilian Real plunges to its weakest level against the U.S. Dollar in history. ( @barchart)…
The prospects for UK inflation will give the Bank of England food for thought when it votes on interest-rates later today | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought some disappointing news for the UK on the inflation front. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% in the 12 months to November 2024, up from 2.3% in the 12 months to October. We can start with the Bank of England which targets this measure and will be voting on…
UK Real Wages are regaining some of the losses from the cost of living crisis | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought us up to date on the latest official UK labour market figures and there is one component at least sending a seasonal message. Annual growth in employees’ average earnings for both regular (excluding bonuses) and total earnings (including bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.2% in August to October 2024. That is…
ECB President Lagarde tells Lithuania that 22.5% inflation was an example of “unity in the face of a more volatile world,” | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has opened with economic news from the Euro area. That is in addition to the indirect news of disappointing retail sales from China which is not hopeful for Euro area exports. We can start with the words of ECB President Christine Lagarde who has been speaking in Vilnius Lithuania. ECB’s Lagarde says ‘darkest…
UK GDP contracts for two months in a row as a wind drought highlights the energy policy crisis | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
The UK economy had a good first half to 2024, bit since then the economic clouds have begun to gather. First we saw GDP growth fall to a relative crawl in the third quarter of the year and this morning we have received this update. Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have…
It is the season for 0.5% interest-rate cuts | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
The last 24 hours have brought quite a dash on the interest-rate front. That is before we get to the European Central Bank at lunchtime which is presumably have second thoughts. Let me explain why via this morning's action. The Swiss National Bank is lowering the SNB policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.5%.…
The economy of Argentina has hopes for better times in 2025 | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
It is time to take a look again at what is happening in Argentina and its economic and monetary experiment. We can start with this from its central bank last week. The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 35% to 32%…
Even the UK’s statisticians are being forced to admit I was right about house prices,affordability and inflation | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Yesterday there was rather a shift from the UK's official statisticians as they found themselves confessing to a central tenet and perhaps the central tenet of my work. That is after around 12 years of not only denial of it but also formally pushing inflation measures that include fantasy numbers, because that is what imputed…
The economy of China with so little inflation and emphasis on exports during a property slump looks rather like Japan | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought us a new phase in the economic slow down affecting China. So let us start with the latest data which is on inflation. From the National Bureau of Statistics. In November 2024 , the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year-on - year . Among them, the urban price rose by 0.1% and the rural price rose…
Why did higher interest and mortgage rates not cause UK and US house prices to fall? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought news which has reminded me of a question that some of you have asked so let me start with the news. It will have meant that the research student presenting the morning meeting at the Bank of England will be in good humour and have a skip in their step. “UK…
ECB President Lagarde wants control over your savings | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This is a rough period for the Euro area and some of that is symbolised by this from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the Monetary Dialogue at the European Parliament yesterday. "We saw moderate growth in the first half of 24 following,I remind you,5 quarters of stagnation.Real GDP growth was largely driven by export &…
The Bank of England joins the central banks promising interest-rate cuts | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today has seen quite a few of my themes in action and along the way we see that the recent theme of central banks promising interest-rate cuts has an extra member. The Bank of England expects four interest rate cuts next year if its outlook for the UK economy bears out, Andrew Bailey said on…
Why is the US Federal Reserve hinting at cuts to interest-rates later this month? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This has been a rather extraordinary year for interest-rate expectations. We came into the year with expectations having been fed by the US central bank. The quotes below come from the 14th of December last year. So we moved onto expectations of them cutting interest-rate next year and in fact there was even more. Officials…
The problems underlying the crisis in France are lack of economic growth and higher debt costs | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Over the weekend the pace rather picked up on the issue of the French Budget. The situation yesterday was this. PARIS, Dec 1 (Reuters) - France's far right National Rally (RN) leaders said on Sunday that the government had rebuffed its calls for more budget concessions, raising the chances of a no confidence vote in…
UK money supply growth suggests the window for interest-rate cuts may soon close | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought some better news for the Bank of England and indeed the UK government. The likely appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary has been followed by a fall in US bond yields. Thus what we might call a fair following wind has brought the UK ten-year yield back to 4.3%…
ECB President Lagarde has a tenure littered with policy errors and U-Turns | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning the economic news is coming from the European Union and we can start with an interview with the Financial Times by ECB President Christine Lagarde. As ever she seems to be in rather a muddle. President-elect Donald Trump has clearly announced last week the magnitude of tariffs that he has in mind: 60%…
What can we expect next from Bitcoin? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
The issue of Bitcoin is something that is not going away even if the central banks wish it would. They would far prefer a world of central bank digital coins where they would have control and in particular the ability to impose even more negative interest-rates in the next recession. But before we get to…
Trump 2.0 starts with a bang with proposed Tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning the economic news is dominated by an overnight announcement from President elect Trump as he announces some initial plans for 2.0. As you can see below it is Trump Tariff time. Donald Trump has said he intends to levy tariffs of 25 per cent on all US imports from Canada and Mexico, and…
Three of the four Deputy Governors at the Bank of England come from HM Treasury | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
Today gives us an opportunity to look at Bank of England policy and which path it will take between the two choices ahead? These are to follow the US Federal Reserve with limited rate cuts or to follow the European Central Bank with more of them. Next month we could see no cut from the…
Germany is in an economic depression due to its reliance on renewable energy | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has seen a selection of poor economic news in Europe and the UK. If not quite toxic rather unpalatable and let me start with something that I marked you cards about back when the original Germany GDP report was released. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024…
UK public-sector borrowing continues to reflect the fiscal profligacy of our political class | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought us up to date on a UK number that has acquired increased importance after the recent Budget by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. She intends to increase borrowing and we know that such a move is on top of what was an already fiscally profligate position. In spite of the fact that we…
The rise in UK inflation is uncomfortable for a government which plans to raise it further | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
This morning has brought some predictable but none the less disappointing news for the UK on the inflation front. Let us start our analysis with the measure that the Bank of England targets. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 1.7% in September. On a…