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Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

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Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

23.04.2025

Should President Trump get his wish and see US interest-rates cut? | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

Whilst we in the UK were enjoying the Easter break there has basically been one main story in the financial world, and as so often it has been led by President Trump. We are back to the era of government by Trump Tweet except this time around it was on Truth Social. Preemptive Cuts” in…

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

24.04.2025

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces bad news on the public finances and economic growth | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

This morning has brought news that brings several of our themes into play. For some time now I have been pointing out that the Western democracies have become fiscally spendthrift and addicted to deficits. The additional nuance came post Covid as one might think that there would be some retrenchment after the Helicopter Money splurge…

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

25.04.2025

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey prepares the ground for more interest-rate cuts | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

Yesterday we heard from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey as he spoke in Leicester. I have been pointing out for a while now that the Bank of England has been stuck between a rock of the US Federal Reserve where interest-rate cuts are in the distance and the European Central Bank or ECB which…

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

26.04.2025

UK Retail Sales continue to look strong suggesting a positive Q1 GDP number | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog

This morning has brought another reminder that one should always take care with narratives. The mood music for the UK economy post the October Budget has been poor and this week we have seen disappointing numbers for the public finances and a purchasing managers or PMI survey suggesting the economy has started the second quarter…

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