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- CNBC Deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. It is the opposite of inflation, which is an increase in the general price level. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0 percent. The most extreme form of deflation is a prolonged period of falling prices, called a deflationary spiral. This occurs when the deflationary forces become so strong that they cause a continuing fall in prices, leading to a decrease in demand, which leads to even lower prices and so on. This can be very damaging to an economy, as it reduces economic activity, leading to job losses and even a recession. Deflation can be caused by a decrease in the money supply, a decrease in government spending, or a decrease in aggregate demand. The most famous example of deflation was the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Australia will release inflation expectations on Thursday, with a market estimate of 3.9%, unchanged from the previous release. China continues to struggle with deflation, as CPI and PPI both declined in August. In the US, CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% and core CPI is projected to remain unchanged at 3.1%.
Despite U.S. tariffs, China's global trade surplus is expanding, driven by increased exports to regions beyond America. While exports to the U.S. have declined, China is strategically redirecting trade and leveraging its dominance in rare earth minerals and soybean imports to exert influence. Internally, China faces economic challenges, including a real estate downturn and deflation, but maintains control over information.
We reiterate Greeenply Industries Ltd. as our top-pick from our coverage universe. We remain confident that company will register stellar growth over coming two-years with improving industry tailwinds, steady plywood growth, ramp-up of MDF segment, and expected timber cost deflation. Hence, we factor-in revenue/Ebitda/PAT growth of 13%/26%/55% over FY25- FY27E. We continue to value the company at P/E(x) of 25x on FY27E EPS of Rs 18 and reiterate our Buy rating on the stock.
Read-through for Indian IT: We believe Indian IT services’ revenue and commentary might mirror the stasis seen in Accenture, and expect Q2 FY26 to largely be muted (adjusting for some seasonal gains). Indian IT currently faces multiple headwinds: a muted demand environment, deflation from GenAI (or otherwise)-led productivity gain, potential limitations to onsite scope expansion in FY27E revenue from an unpredictable H1B program.