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1. U.S. Inflation Hits Highest Level Since 2008 2. Inflation Rate in U.S. Climbs to 3.6%, Highest Level Since 2012 3. Fed's Powell: Inflation Is Rising, But It's Not a Short-Term Problem 4. How Inflation Can Affect Your Investments 5. What Is Inflation and How Does It Affect the Economy? 6. 8 Simple Strategies to Protect Yourself From Inflation 7. What You Need to Know About High Inflation 8. Corporate Profits Feel the Squeeze as Inflation Rises 9. How Inflation Affects Your Finances 10. Video: What Is Inflation and How Does It Impact You?
The most important data release today will be the US May CPI. We forecast headline inflation at +0.2% m/m SA (2.5% y/y) and core inflation at +0.2% m/m SA (2.9% y/y) - slightly below consensus on the latter. We expect firms to gradually pass through the rising tariff costs to core goods and food prices, but also that services inflation will continue to moderate.
In the US, May inflation figures fell short of expectations, with headline inflation rising only marginally by 0.1% m/m compared to April, against consensus of 0.2%. Aggregate inflation edged up to 2.4% y/y, slightly below expected 2.5%. Despite soaring consumer inflation expectations, inflation has been slow to react to Trump's tariffs, exerting only modest pressure on consumer prices. Core inflation remained stable at 2.8% y/y, contrary to predictions of a slight increase to 2.9% y/y. Overall, it was a soft print suggesting that underlying inflation remains weak, prompting the market to respond with lower rates and a weaker USD.
In a Reuters interview, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos downplayed concerns over a return to the ultra-low inflation era of the 2010s, despite the recent strengthening of Euro. De Guindos acknowledged that these developments could weigh on headline inflation but emphasized that “the risk of undershooting is very limited.” He maintained that inflation risks are now "balanced". Euro’s recent appreciation was neither rapid nor volatile, and therefore "not going to be a big obstacle" at 1.15 level.
This week we received the first of two inflation updates that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will use to guide their policy decision on July 30. May’s headline inflation came in at a 1.7% year-on-year (y/y), meeting consensus expectations. Recent soft readings have been tamped down by the end of the consumer carbon tax, something we expect to linger for the coming months. Total inflation has averaged right at the BoC’s 2% target for the better part of the last year, with areas like shelter inflation starting to see some reprieve.
HEADLINE INFLATION may have slightly picked up in June as stable food prices helped offset the spike in fuel prices, analysts said. A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.5% for June inflation, accelerating from the 1.3% in May but still below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target range. […]
THE GOVERNMENT made a partial award of the Treasury bills (T-bills) it offered on Monday as yields were mixed amid expectations that headline inflation may have picked up anew in June following the surge in oil prices seen last month amid the Israel-Iran war. The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) raised just P23.95 billion from […]
India's headline inflation may fall to the range of 2.5–2.75% in the second and third quarter, according to Sridhar Sivaram, investment director, Enam Holdings. The Reserve Bank of India is projecting 3.4–3.8% for the same period. Enam Holdings projected that RBI would deliver a 50-basis point rate cut in June, which was based on inflation trajectory, Sivaram said.