A Fiscal Crisis in the Making The United States' public finances are approaching a historic turning point. With Donald Trump's re-election to the presidency in November 2024, it is clear that American fiscal policy is moving towards a critical point. In this article, I present an econometric analysis of the US budget deficit, which shows…

Market Monetarist

19.02.2025

Credibility problems: The Fed isn’t convincing and Truflation isn’t true | The Market Monetarist

Today we got the US inflation (CPI) data for January. Both headline inflation and core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) came in higher than expected. Headline inflation was 3.0% year-over-year, while core inflation rose to 3.3% year-over-year.This is hardly good news. However, we should be very careful about drawing too many conclusions from month-to-month…

Market Monetarist

19.02.2025

The Trump Superspike: If Trust in U.S. Governance Breaks, Interest Rates Will Explode | The Market Monetarist

In risk departments across Europe’s banks and pension funds, intense discussions are unfolding. The topic? Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior and what it means for financial stability. At first glance, the immediate concerns seem obvious—tariffs, trade wars, and economic uncertainty. But that’s not where the real danger lies. European credit departments will, of course, start by…

Market Monetarist

19.02.2025

Trump’s Tariffs and the Fed: A 1970s Velocity Nightmare in the Making | The Market Monetarist

The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey delivers a stark warning about U.S. monetary stability. Following Trump's return to the presidency in the November 2024 election, inflation expectations have surged dramatically. The short-term (one-year) inflation expectations have jumped to 4.3% - a level that should set alarm bells ringing. Even more concerning is the…

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Economy

When Democracy Fails: US Budget Deficit Accelerating Towards 10% of GDP | The Market Monetarist

Credibility problems: The Fed isn’t convincing and Truflation isn’t true | The Market Monetarist

The Trump Superspike: If Trust in U.S. Governance Breaks, Interest Rates Will Explode | The Market Monetarist

Trump’s Tariffs and the Fed: A 1970s Velocity Nightmare in the Making | The Market Monetarist

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